Is Alberta inching closer to the exit door? Premier Danielle Smith insists she’s a federalist — but her government’s latest moves are making it easier for citizens to trigger a referendum on independence. With fresh polling from the Angus Reid Institute showing a majority of UCP voters in favour of holding a secession vote, the big question is: is this a tactical play to reset Alberta’s relationship with Ottawa, or a strategy to keep her party’s restless base onside?

This week, West of Centre host Kathleen Petty unpacks Smith’s political high-wire act: is she turning up the heat, or genuinely trying to cool things down? We also dive into growing speculation that the premier is laying the groundwork for an early provincial election.

Joining the conversation: former UCP executive director Brad Tennant, former Alberta NDP cabinet minister Shannon Phillips, and editorial writer Doug Firby. Plus, a look ahead to key byelections and whether Mark Carney’s new Liberal government might try to smooth things over with Alberta by handing one (or both) of its newly elected Liberal MPs a cabinet post.

Two-in-five Canadians think Alberta separation is a real possibility — even though most would reject the idea, new polling shows.

In the wake of the 2025 federal election, exit polling from Research Co. reveals that 40 per cent of Canadian voters believe Alberta separation could actually happen. That number jumps to 58 per cent within Alberta — though only a minority would welcome it. Speaking with host Rob Brown on West of Centre Short, pollster Mario Canseco says it’s the highest level of perceived plausibility his firm has ever recorded. He notes the framing of the question — posed in the context of a Liberal victory in provinces that overwhelmingly vote Conservative — may have nudged some respondents toward seeing separation as more likely. But with Donald Trump repeatedly invoking the idea of a 51st state and Premier Danielle Smith lowering the bar for referendums, Canseco defends the framing as realistic for a region where discontent runs deep.

Canseco says the broader trend is clear: younger voters and conservatives are more open to separation, and that aligns with other national data. This isn’t just post-election chatter, he argues — it’s a growing feeling of estrangement that Ottawa can’t afford to ignore.

Note: No poll is absolute, especially one conducted amid the unique and evolving circumstances of a developing story. This online survey was conducted with 1,201 voters between April 27 and 29, 2025, and carries a margin of error of ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Mark Carney’s steady economic message resonated with voters, helping the Liberals secure a fourth consecutive term — though still a minority. But the results have stirred fresh tensions with Alberta, where Premier Danielle Smith is moving ahead to lower the bar for referendums as talk of separatism re-emerges. In this episode of West of Centre, host Kathleen Petty explores what the outcome means for Canada’s future — and Alberta’s increasingly restless role within Confederation.

Three Calgary voters — Darryl, Sunil and Chelsea — offer raw, personal reflections. While Chelsea calls the election a rejection of Trumpism, Sunil, a disappointed Conservative supporter, questions whether his party can ever win under the current political setup. The panel debates Carney’s appeal to centrists, the collapse of the NDP, and whether Alberta’s political class is rallying voters or fanning division.

Later, former Conservative cabinet minister Monte Solberg and political strategist Stephen Carter join for a spirited post-mortem. Carter jokes about his Strategists podcast partner Corey Hogan’s surprise win in Calgary Confederation, while both guests assess Carney’s leadership, Pierre Poilievre’s limits and Smith’s political calculations. Despite their differences, they agree: if the Liberals want to ease Western alienation, Alberta needs a real voice in cabinet — and Smith has a window to show she can build bridges, not just burn them.