War and Your Portfolio (Ep.126)

The US just launched strikes on Iran. Oil spiked from $70 to over $120 a barrel. The Strait of Hormuz is shut down. And your portfolio? Brent, Matthew, and Josh break down exactly what the Iran conflict means for your retirement — and why panic-selling might be the riskiest move of all.

First up: the oil shock. The guys walk through why crude prices jumped 63% in 10 days, why gas went from $3 to $3.45 nationally (and close to $6 in California), and what that means for everything from supply chains to your grocery bill. Josh pulls in a Landman reference to explain why oil touches every corner of the economy — and why markets got so nervous so fast.

Then the conversation turns to the big question every client is asking: should I move to cash? Matthew lays out what history actually tells us about war and markets — stocks have held up better than most people think, thanks to the "war machine" effect on GDP. But this time there's a wrinkle: consumer confidence just hit a 12-year low, unemployment ticked up to 4.4%, and if oil stays elevated, inflation could push back above 3%. The team discusses the stagflation scenario, why the Fed's backward-looking data is making things worse, and what the new Fed chair could mean for rates.

The practical segment is where it gets actionable. Brent explains his rebalancing strategy and why he's been sitting on cash since November waiting for this kind of pullback. Josh makes the case for sticking to your plan and not turning off retirement contributions. And Matthew talks Roth conversions — why a market dip could actually be the perfect time to convert at a lower amount. All three share what they're personally doing (or not doing) in their own portfolios right now.

The episode wraps with personal updates: Brent's back at Orangetheory and feeling better than he has in two years, Josh just finished Landman Season 2 (perfect timing with the oil talk), and Matt's daughter learned to ride a bike in about an hour using a Guardian balance bike.

Timestamps

• 0:00 — Intro
• 1:30 — Oil prices spike: what happened and why it matters
• 3:00 — How oil affects everything (the Landman breakdown)
• 5:30 — The Strait of Hormuz shutdown and supply chain fears
• 6:00 — Should you be worried? Time horizon is everything
• 7:00 — What history says about war and the stock market
• 10:00 — Will this be a short war? Political dynamics and midterms
• 11:00 — Stagflation risk: inflation up, jobs down, Fed stuck
• 12:00 — Recession odds and why Matt's not buying it
• 13:00 — What we're telling clients right now
• 14:00 — Rebalancing strategies and sitting on cash
• 16:00 — Don't panic-sell Trump — the pattern since 2019
• 18:00 — Why retail investors are calmer than institutions
• 19:30 — Practical steps: time horizon, bucket strategy, Roth conversions
• 21:00 — Gold at all-time highs: insurance, not a bet
• 23:00 — What Brent, Matt, and Josh are doing in their own portfolios
• 25:00 — Evermont Recommends: Orangetheory, Landman Season 2, Guardian Bikes

Key Takeaways

1. Oil spiked 63% in 10 days after the Strait of Hormuz shut down — but markets haven't cratered the way most people expected, and history shows stocks tend to hold up during wartime.
2. The bigger risk isn't the war itself — it's stagflation. If oil stays elevated, inflation could push back above 3% while the labor market weakens. The Fed is behind the curve.
3. Don't panic-sell. Every major correction under this administration has reversed. If your time horizon is 10+ years, stick to your plan.
4. This could actually be a good time to rebalance and consider Roth conversions — converting when the market is down means you convert at a lower amount and benefit more from the recovery.
5. Gold is at all-time highs because of uncertainty, not fundamentals. Keep it to 5-10% of your portfolio as insurance, not a core position.

Links & Resources

• Evermont Wealth: https://evermont.com
• Call Us: [phone]
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