2023 NFL Week 17

Our leans for week 17. Our contests are not looking good, but we are not giving up. Fingers crossed.

Buffalo Bills: -12

• I know its a ton of points, but come on, it NE. I just can’t take those points, so going chalk and taking the Bills this week. If any team is going to lose by 12 points, its the Patriots.

LA Rams: -4.5/-5.5

• Fade the Giants and jump on the Rams. It might be a public pick, but feeling the Rams are going to easily cover, if not win by two TDs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: -3

• Tampa Bay and ATL are both vying for the leader of their division. NO is only playing for spoiler bc they are out of the playoffs. I could def see TB wining this games and covering the points.

Seattle Seahawks: -3.5

• This is a good spot for the Seahawks and and good fade for the Steelers. Steelers were a great cover and win last week against the Bengals. Rudolph is not going to have the game he had last week. In fact, I could see one of his mates throwing their helmet at him.

Green Bay Packers: +2

• After that awful loss last week, fade the Vikings. The Vikings should have won that game last week. This is a good spot for GB to not only cover but actually win the game outright.

Good luck to everyone and their teams

-WA DAWGS

WAD 016 - 2023 NFL Week 16

Can We Make Up Some Ground This Week? Please!

Have to keep this short and sweet.

Our Mean Leans Week 16: This is a tough week.

Circa and Westgate:

• Denver Broncos -6/-6.5: Yes, it's chalky. Yes, it's a public fav. But come on, it's the NE Patriots.

• ATL Falcons -1: Just plan on fading the public road dog, Colts. Cuz road dogs die.

• Cleveland Browns: Math #s show a lean toward the Browns, and Houston’s QB is out.

• KC Chiefs -10: Fading the Raiders after their humongous win over LA last week. And KC always has the Raiders card.

• Carolina Panthers +4.5/+5: Fading the huge public fav GB Packers and hoping to cover.

Snoqualmie Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em: (local Washington casino)

• Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5: Yes, get them at a +2.5. I like the extra value, and it's a good place for the Steelers after their disappointing loss last week. And fading the Bengals after that awesome ending and win against Minnesota.

• Cleveland Browns: Math #s show a lean toward the Browns, and Houston’s QB is out.

• ATL Falcons: +2: We get them at a +2 at Snoqualmie. Taking that value and fading the public road dog.

• KC Chiefs -10: Fading the Raiders. And KC plays well at home and I think they will easily make this cover and possibly more.

• Philadelphia Eagles -10.5: We get them at a -10.5 instead of the other books at a -12.5 and -13 in some places. Feel like we are getting Philadelphia on sale.

Okay, gotta run and shop and get ready for Christmas.

Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, Happy Holidays, and Happy Football to you all.

Love, WA DAWGS

WAD 015 - 2023 NFL Week 15

Welcome back to WA DAWGS! Its week 15 and this week looks Brutal with a capitol B.

Leans For Week 15:

Las Vegas Raiders:

• At home Thursday night against a backup QB with a coach in the hangsman’s noose. Raiders are going to take this game by storm. Las Vegas Raider fans are almost as loud at the Seahwks fans. I can see the offense and the defense of the Raiders team working in tandem without a flaw to steal the show.

Pittsburgh Steelers:

• I know the Steelers look like trash, but I think this is their week to win. Remarkably they have had pretty good luck this season. For looking like a big turd, they could get the wild card. So they have to win this game to stay in the running.

Detroit Lions:

• They are a good team. Yes, they might have looked drab and Goff looked and played like he has mono. But I think this is their time to grab this game and take smoke Denver. My math model has value on the Lions. And they are at home primetime on Saturday, plus Goff plays great on turf, making this a good pick.

Chicago Bears:

• Not really to certain about this one. But I’m going public dog on this one. Which I know, public dogs die. But they are playing really well and I could see this is a good time to fade the Browns after that awesome win over Jacksonville last week. Still unsure of this one, so its just a lean, might change my mind later today.

Dallas Cowboys:

• Getting points on Dallas looks appealing. Our math model shows favor to Dallas. The public is all over the Bills according to Covers.com. Which makes me want to fade the Bills. Plus Dallas and Philadelphia are neck and neck, so Dallas must win this game. Bc it is going to come down to the best record between Dallas and Philadelphia for the division. And after that great win the Bills had over KC, its a good time to fade em.

Good luck to you all!

WA DAWGS

2023 NFL Week 14: Hanging In There

Leans for Week 14 NFL: Our picks for the Circa Millions and Westgate SuperContest

New York Jets: +3.5 at Circa Millions and Westgate SuperContest

• This is a good spot for the Jets to cover and a good time to fade Houston. The weather could be rainy, which put a wrench in Houston’s throwing offense. And the Jets' defense, at home, could even win the game between these two. We are picking the Jets’ defense to cover this spread.

New York Giants: -6.5 at Circa Millions and Westgate SuperContest

• Feel that Green Bay is overvalued after their last couple of wins. And the Giants are starting to put up a fight, and looking better with the new QB. Plus, it’s Monday night, and the Giants are a home dog.

Baltimore Ravens: -7 at Circa Millions, and -7.5 at Westgate SuperContest

• This might be a chalky square bet, but I like the Ravens in this matchup. Ravens are at home, and after a bye, I think they could easily cover. The Ravens have a great running game. And it's supposed to rain a lot, which could disrupt LA’s throwing offense.

Miami Dolphins: -13 at Circa Millions, and -13 at Westgate SuperContest

• Miami always seems to beat up bad teams. Tennesee played so hard last week to lose that divisional game to the Colts. Even though the Titans had so many chances to win that game. I think the Dolphins could easily win by two touchdowns.

Indianapolis Colts: -1 at Circa Millions, and PK at Westgate SuperContest

• It’s a short week for Cincinnati. And there is a stat that shows double-digit dogs that outright win will rarely win the next game. After Cincinnati’s battle with Jacksonville last week, it's a good time to fade them.

Side Note: we are also playing the Beat the Point Spread Pigckin Pick Em’ at our local Snoqualmie casino. And they have different spreads than the Circa Millions and Westgate Supercontest. So we ended up changing our 5 ATS games from what we picked at Circa and Westgate. We got Seattle Seahawks at a +12.5, as opposed to 10.5 at the other books. Love the extra 2points of value there. And we got Cleveland at a +3 instead of the -3.0, -3.5. Which is 6 points of value, so we had to take Cleveland. Hope it works out to our advantage.

Snoqualmie Casino:

• Cleveland +3

• Seattle +12.5

• New York Jets +6 (yes! It was a +6 there)

• Miami -13.5

• Baltimore -7.5

Fingers crossed for week 14. Best of luck to you all

2023 NFL Week 13: All Busted Up

Last week was brutal—no need to rehash our fails. But needless to say, we are not quitting our day jobs anytime soon. Who knows where we are on Circa Millions? We spiraled and lost our way down on the list of contestants in the Westgate SuperContest. But we are #3 in our local casino, the Snoqualmie Casino, Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘em. We are not quitters, so we will not give up and hope for a good bounce back.

Leans for Week 13 NFL:

Tennesee Titans:

• The Titans were my favorite game last week, and I am def leaning toward them this week. They are playing the Colts in a divisional game. I know what you are thinking. Stay away from divisional games, but I like this one. Not only does Mike Vrabel do well as an underdog (+1 or +2, depending on the book), they are at home. The team overall is looking more revitalized and ready to tackle (no pun intended) and win this game against the Colts. Although my math model didn’t point to this game, my instincts do. And my math model stunk last week anyway, so let’s go with the gut on this one.

Pittsburgh Steelers:

• I heard a lot of sharps talk about Arizona. Listening to those wise guys really makes me question my #s, math, and sanity. While Kyler Murray has breathed some life into this team, I still cannot take the points on Az. The Steelers have been playing really well. That may be because they ditched Matt Canada, their offensive coordinator. Because they are looking better offensively. And I have the math on this valued a lot higher than a -5.5. And for some reason, Az is a public dog this week. Away, public dogs statistically take big dumps.

Washington Commanders:

• Every time I take a chance on the Commanders, I get burned. But my math does point to Wa covering this 9.5 spread. Is Sam Howell going to have the game of his life? Hmm, probably not. But Miami’s defense is not that good, so if Howell throws some bullets, they could keep this game to a cover for Wa. Plus, in Landover, Maryland, it might rain. Although, I don’t know if the mid-50s is considered cold for those Miami boys. Actually, I think I might already be talking myself out of this one. But ugly bets can cover.

Houston Texans:

• This looks like a good one for the Texans. Denver is trending up. But you know that Denver is not interested in this game. They absolutely need to win next week's game against the Chargers. This is a look-ahead game for Denver.

Green Bay Packers:

• After that behind-kicking GB gave Detroit on Thanksgiving, I can see why they are a public dog. I just really like the points on this one. I don’t expect the Packers to win, but it is Sunday primetime, where anything can happen. And getting 6 points for GB looks pretty darn good. I know public dogs usually dump, but they are at home, and it's Sunday night with all eyes on them.

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Fran 49ers:

• I initially loved the points on the Eagles at home. But all the money and bets and even sharps are on the 49ers. Public favorites always worry me. But from the casino’s view, if the Eagles cover, then they make a whole lot of money. And we all know the books make the $ over the average bettor. Both teams have no reason to win this game, per se. Maybe for a first-round bye, these teams may want to win. But the 49ers must stay healthy to focus on the Seahawks next week. And the Eagles need to get healthy and focus on Dallas next week. So this game is a look ahead for both teams. So I think taking the opposite of the fav might prove a nice cover. Or just may sit back and watch this one.

Good luck to all of you and your bets and games! WA DAWGS

2203 NFL Week 12 Season

Heads STILL Hangin Low:

Talk about getting kicked while we are down! Week 11 was not good. We went 1 and 4 at both the Circa Millions and Westgate Supercontest. And 2 and 3 at our local Snoqualmie Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em.

At this point, we are really questioning our sanity. These contests cause so many emotional ups and downs. I know, I know, you are thinking, ‘Journal it or see a therapist, just get on with the leans!’

BUT by the grace of some higher power, we are still in second place at our local casino Snoqualmie. So, never give up hope!

Week 12 Leans: as of now, we are using the Circa lines, but we have not gotten the actual spreads for the contests yet.

Detroit Lions -7.5 (over Green bay)

• I handicapped Detroit at a -13. So I see a lot of value on this one. I know, it's a division game on Thanksgiving. But Detroit has played on Thanksgiving since the dawn of time (or at least when I was a kid). And have always lost on Thanksgiving. But this is a different team on a winning streak. I see them winning by 14.

Seattle Seahawks +7 (over 49er’s)

• Do I actually bet against the 49ers after the last two amazing victories? San Fran is on fire, and this is a divisional game. This is going to be a tough battle. But 7 points for the Seahawks at home in Seattle? Gino’s elbow is questionable. He is going to play, but how well. I do think Gino Smith plays better in an underdog role. But that elbow, no matter how much drugs are pumped into him, could be a hindrance. It’s a lean, but I'm still debating taking this one for the contests.

Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 (over Pittsburgh)

• With Joe Burrow out, everyone is on the Steelers. But the Bengals are a good team, and with the new (QB) player ‘effect,’ I think the Bengals will get this one done with a win. I have no confidence in the Steelers, no matter how smart and cute their coach is. And my math model shows the Bengals at a -2.5.

Tennessee Titans -3.5 (over Carolina)

• Even with a rookie QB I have this game handicapped at the Titans -5.5. So, I see value in the Titans at home. They are ready for a win, and why not against the lousy Panthers? So maybe I want to take this bc the Panthers are so bad.

NY Giants +3.5 (over NE)

• In last week's games, the QB for the Giants got sacked 6 times! And he kept getting back up. Just bc he lives with his mom doesn’t mean he is not tough. I wish I could live with my mom. She is an amazing cook and has no problem with wine on a Wednesday. But really, the Giants at home are getting points (love the home dogs). And it's NE. They are not, how do I put it politely? NE is just not that great, I have them ranked pretty much on par with the Giants. I see a few points of value for the Giants.

Cleveland Browns +1.5 (over Denver)

• I like the Browns in this matchup. Their defense is outstanding, and I think they could win this game. My math model shows the Browns at a -3. And after that failed, sloppy two-point conversion the Broncos did on Sunday night, I cannot lay any points on Denver.

LA Rams +1 (over Arizona)

• My math model showed a couple of points of value for the Rams. Not really feeling this because it is a division game. And I find AZ plays well at home. Just found some value here on the Rams, but might pass on this one.

Okay, tomorrow is November 23rd, 2024, Thanksgiving. Looking forward to hanging with family, stuffing our guts with good food, and watching football. What more could a gal ask for?

WADAWGS

2023 NFL Week 11 - Heads Hangin Low

Oh man, we are feeling beat up and humbled from week 10! We tanked, sank, and got destroyed last week. This week, we are picking ourselves up, spitting the dirt out, and ready to get back in the saddle for week 11.

But we did so poorly. We only got a push and all losses at the Circa and Westgate. We fell fast and hard in that competition. Can we get back on top? Well, it really comes down to this week. We must get back on top this week to salvage any possible winnings and our pride. And to add salt to the wound, we got kicked out of Survivor at the Circa. Those darn Bengals lost, which stopped us in our tracks for the Survivor game. But it was so much fun, and can’t wait to get spanked next year when we sign right back up.

There is a little silver lining, though. We won the first half of the Snoqualmie Casino’s contest called Beat the Point Spread Pick ‘Em and walked away with $3750.

On to week 11! Maybe it's because of our bad beat last week (we took way too much chalk), but I'm feeling so conflicted. The lines at the Snoqualmie Casino differ from the Circa and Westgate, and we are taking different teams. Bc Snowqualmie uses older lines, and we got some real gifts.

For example, Snoqualmie Casino (just for their contest) has Pittsburgh at a +4 over Cleveland, whereas Circa/Westgate has the spread at Pittsburgh +1. They also have Chicago at a +10 over Detroit, and Circa/Westgate has them at a +8/+7.5.

So this is what we are thinking:

Snoqualmie Casino Beat the Point Spread Pick ‘Em:

- Chicago Bears +10 over the Detroit Lions

- Pittsburgh Steelers +4 over the Cleveland Browns

- Miami Dolphins -10 over the Las Vegas Raiders (Circa/Westgate are -13.5)

- Carolina Panthers +11 over the Dallas Cowboys (Circa/Westgate are +10)

- Debating between Jaguars -6.5 (Circa/Westgate are -7) or Broncos -1.5 (Circa/Westgate are -2.5)

Circa and Westgate:

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Just love the points on this one. While San Francisco killed the Jaguars last week. This is a look-ahead game bc the 49ers play the Seahawks next week in a very tough division rivalry. And on my math model, I have TB at +7.5, like the value here.

- Carolina Panthers: love the points on this one, too! Yes, Dallas decimated the Giants last week. They don’t play as well at home, and it is a short week for them. Dallas has to play on Thursday, Thanksgiving, in a tough rivalry against the Commanders. Even though the coach, Frank Reich of the Panthers, is taking back offensive calls (not sure why, bc the offensive coordinator T Brown seems really good), I think it will be up to the Panther’s defense to hold tight. They don’t have to win, just cover.

- Miami: To cover, they have to win by 14. That is a lot of points to lay, and kinda feeling it but still wavering. It's a good spot for Miami after that loss to KC in Germany and a bye last week. And as much as I love that new coach for LV, Antonio Pierce, come on, it's the Raiders.

That’s all I got. It’s coming down to the 11th hour, and that is all I got. Leaning a tiny bit toward the Jets, Jacksonville (good comeback game?), Houston (I mean is Kyler Murray all that and a bag of chips?), and maybe Broncos (at home in Denver, prime time and everyone is on the Josh Dobbs bandwagon, public dawgs usually die).

Okay, I’m off to meditate, pray, and bargain with the Gods. Good luck to you all and your bets. Let’s take a line from The Hunger Games, ‘May the odds be ever in your favor.’

Xox WA DAWGS

NFL Week 10: We Made Some Money!

We made money this last week at the Snoqualmie Casino’s contest called Beat the Point Spread Pick ‘Em. Week 9 marked the halfway point in the contest, and the first-place prize was $3750.

WA DAWGS was top-dawg, and we cashed in. We came in 6th place at Westgate, so we almost got a prize, as they have the top 1-5 winners cashing in. And at Circa Millions, we are nowhere near the top of the heap in that contest. But we did survive another week in the Circa Survivor contest.

Recap:

Westgate Supercontest 4:1

• Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (WIN/Covered)

• Carolina Panthers +2.5 (LOSS)

• Baltimore Ravens -6 (WIN/Covered )

• Philadelphia Eagles -3 (WIN/Covered)

• Las Vegas Raiders -1.5 (WIN/Covered)

Circa Millions 3:2

• New York Jets +3.5 (LOSS)

• Carolina Panthers +2.5 (LOSS)

• Baltimore Ravens -6 (WIN/Covered )

• Philadelphia Eagles -3 (WIN/Covered)

• Las Vegas Raiders -2 (WIN/Covered)

Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em at the Snoqualmie casino in Washington State: 3 wins/1 push/ one loss

• Cleveland Browns (WIN/Covered)

• Carolina Panthers +2.5 (LOSS)

• Baltimore Ravens -5.5 (WIN/Covered )

• Philadelphia Eagles -3 (WIN/Covered)

• New Orleans -7 (PUSHED)

Circa Survivor contest: We survived by taking the Browns (beating the Cardinals).

On to our leans!

2023 NFL Week 10 Leans:

Cincinnati Bengals -6.5

• Let's talk chalk here. The Bengals have been on a roll, and I don’t think they are looking to fade. Houston is coming off a good win, and def a spot to fade them here. My math shows more neutral value here, but our guts and instincts say, take the Bengals. They need to keep winning bc their division is tough. And I think Burrow and the team are clicking on every level.

Seattle Seahawks -6.5

• Can we get any more chalkier? Well, yes, we can. And that is by taking the Seahawks. They had a terrible bad beat last week in Baltimore. They are at home, making this a good time for a bounce-back week. Washington is pretty inconsistent, and after that win last week, let’s fade them. And I do have Seattle handicapped more at a -7.5 so that one point of value is convincing to me.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3

• I know exactly what you are thinking. Are the 49ers losing ANOTHER game?? Yes, they don’t have to lose. And I would love to take 3 points on Jacksonville at home. With the 49ers injuries, I like the at-home dawg. Plus, I have this game more at a pick ‘em.

Pittsburgh Steelers - 3

• I know the Steelers are kind of hot/cold this season. But they are at home, and it’s Green Bay. Am I just betting against Green Bay because they have been so poor this season? Or betting for the Steelers because they have been so good? It’s the former.

There are a few other leans, but I still dwell on them. I like ATL for the win. I know Kyler Murray is back. But it has been like 18 months since he played a game. There is going to be some serious rust. How could you not pine for the points on the Broncos (+7.5) and the Browns (+6)? Rob is leaning toward Detroit, and I have a couple of value points on the Chargers. Also, the Jets look good as a bounce-back, and I have 1.5 points of value on them.

Circa Survivor Lean:

We have used up a lot of great teams, so our pickings are starting to slim. This week leaning toward the Bengals to win and survive to week 11.

There are 9 weeks left. And we are looking, hoping, and praying to pull up the ranks at the Westgate, keep surviving the Circa Survivor, and stay on top of the Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em at the Snoqualmie casino. I might be an optimist at heart, but rising in the Circa Millions contest, considering where we are at now…Well, that is going to be a tough act to pull off. But hey, it’s NFL football, where anything can happen. Good Luck to everyone’s picks and teams!