Episodios

  • Volatility Views 646: Is the Tail Wagging the Dog?

    Volatility Views 646: Is the Tail Wagging the Dog?
    Sep 5 2025

    This episode of Volatility Views discusses the recent market volatility, particularly in response to the non-farm payrolls report. Mark Longo and Russell Rhoads (Indiana University Kelley School of Business) analyze the impact of the economic data on VIX cash and futures, highlighting the surprising downturn after an initial market rally. They examine the VIX futures curve, noting the significant spread between the September and October contracts. The episode also delves into a discussion about the explosive growth of options trading volume and whether the options market has become so large that it is now "wagging the dog" of the underlying stock market. They also review VIX option volume for the week, pointing out a high number of contracts traded, including some unusual trades and large spreads. The show concludes with their weekly VIX predictions for the following week.

    Show Notes:

    • 1:00 Welcome

    • 3:50 Volatility Review: Non-farm Payrolls Report

    • 6:30 Discussion on Market Reaction and Fed Rate Cuts

    • 9:50 VIX Futures and Volatility Surface Analysis

    • 12:40 Conversation about Options Volume Growth and the "Tail Wagging the Dog"

    • 16:40 Discussion on Jane Street in India and Single Stock Futures

    • 18:50 VIX Options Volume Review (Top 10)

    • 21:05 Russell Rhoads' Weekly Rundown (Unusual Trades)

    • 27:50 Host's Breakdown of Daily VIX Volume

    • 30:00 VIX ETPs and Inverse Volatility Products

    • 33:30 The Crystal Ball: Weekly VIX Predictions

    • 36:30 Closing Remarks

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    1 h
  • Volatility Views 645: We Can't Drive 55

    Volatility Views 645: We Can't Drive 55
    Aug 29 2025

    In this episode of Volatility Views, hosts Mark Longo, Russell Rhoads, and Mark Sebastian discuss the unusual market behavior of a Friday sell-off after a week of bullish momentum. They analyze the reasons behind the market's sudden shift to the red, including a surprising reaction to recent Fed commentary and pre-holiday weekend risk management. The show delves into the VIX and VIX futures curve, highlighting unusual calendar spreads and a large-volume trade in out-of-the-money October calls. The hosts also review volatility ETPs like SVIX, UVIX, and UVXY, noting the "air pocket" between futures and cash that benefits inverse volatility products. The show concludes with their "Crystal Ball" predictions for the following week's VIX level.

    Timestamps
    • 2:02: The Volatility Review

    • 2:15: Market sell-off and VIX pop

    • 3:50: Mark Sebastian's market commentary

    • 7:46: Russell Rhoads market commentary

    • 11:59: VIX futures curve analysis

    • 13:58: Russell Rhoads analysis of the back end of the curve

    • 16:30: VIX options trading

    • 18:50: Russell's Weekly Rundown of specific trades

    • 22:56: Discussion of the "I Can't Drive 55" trades (wild out-of-the-money calls)

    • 24:28: Most active VIX options for the week

    • 30:57: Mark Sebastian's key takeaways from VIX options activity

    • 32:00: Inverse Volatility ETFs (SVIX and VYLD)

    • 34:55: UVIX and UVXY analysis

    • 37:25: The Crystal Ball segment (VIX predictions)

    • 40:50: Russell and Mark's final thoughts
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    55 m
  • Volatility Views 644: Birthday Special VIX Weekly Rundown

    Volatility Views 644: Birthday Special VIX Weekly Rundown
    Aug 22 2025

    This is a special birthday holiday edition of Volatility Views, providing a rundown of the VIX options market from the past week. The episode breaks down the most active VIX options, open for size positions, and day-by-day highlights of trading activity.

    Time Stamps

    • 0:00 Welcome to Volatility Views

    • 2:16 Top 10 VIX Open for Size

    • 5:14 Thursday's VIX Activity

    • 6:58 Wednesday's VIX Activity

    • 8:00 Tuesday's VIX Activity

    • 9:05 Monday's VIX Activity

    • 10:07 Conclusion
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    9 m
  • Volatility Views 643: Finding Vol in the Dog Days of Summer

    Volatility Views 643: Finding Vol in the Dog Days of Summer
    Aug 16 2025
    In this episode of Volatility Views, Mark Longo is joined by Russell Rhoads (Kelley School of Business - Indiana University), Mark Sebastian (The Option Pit) and Euan Sinclair (Hull Tactical) to discuss the latest trends and market activity in the world of volatility trading. The show dives into specific topics such as current market volatility, the VIX options market, and how different volatility ETPs (Exchange Traded Products) are performing. They provide insights into the volatility surface, market maker activities, and potential impacts from geopolitical and economic events. Detailed analysis and predictions for the upcoming week's volatility levels are provided, along with discussions on specific trades and strategies observed in the market. The episode closes with a look at unusual options activity and the usefulness of different inverse volatility products. 01:05 Welcome to Volatility Views 01:53 Meet the panel 04:14 Volatility Review: Market Recap 06:51 Fed Fund Rates and Market Movements 16:27 Crypto Volatility Insights 26:19 VIX Options Analysis 32:07 Unexpected VIX Trades and Market Reactions 33:32 Analyzing a Bizarre VIX Trade 36:34 Weekly VIX Options Activity 42:42 Inverse Volatility Products Performance 48:36 Predicting VIX Movements 52:39 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
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    57 m
  • Volatility Views 642: Nonfarms, Tariffs and Earnings...Oh My!!!

    Volatility Views 642: Nonfarms, Tariffs and Earnings...Oh My!!!
    Aug 1 2025
    In this episode, Mark Longo, Russell Rhoads (Kelley School of Business - Indiana University), and Matt Amberson (Orats) analyze the significant surge in VIX, evidenced by the current VIX cash at 21 and the heavy trading volume exceeding one million contracts. They discuss how this translates to increased option activity, with substantial trades noted in August and September futures. Matt and Russell elaborate on the week's significant options trades and their implications, including a deep dive into earnings volatility with Matt noting an exceptionally hot earnings season, seeing over 50% returns on straddles. The episode also features insights into the vol ETP landscape, highlighting products like UVXY, SVXY, and VXX and their respective trading activities. Lastly, the hosts provide predictions for the next week, discussing potential market moves in the context of current volatility. 01:05 Welcome to Volatility Views 01:55 Market Overview and Recent Additions 05:28 Volatility Review 14:19 Earnings Volatility Report 21:14 Volatility Surface Analysis 30:38 Weekly Options Analysis 33:27 Analyzing Recent VIX Trades 34:41 Questionable Trade Strategies 36:06 VIX Options Activity Breakdown 43:24 Inverse Volatility and Liquidity Challenges 46:00 Volatility ETPs and Trading Strategies 50:23 Predicting VIX Movements 54:14 Conclusion and Upcoming Events
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    58 m
  • Volatility Views 641: Vol Dies With A Whimper

    Volatility Views 641: Vol Dies With A Whimper
    Jul 25 2025
    The latest episode of Volatility Views covers a wide range of volatility trading topics with Mark Longo and Russell Rhoads. The show covers the term structure of VIX futures, recent trades in VIX options, and the seasonality of volatility, especially as it relates to earnings season and its impact on the markets. Key trades in VIX options from the week are highlighted and analyzed. Additionally, the episode features listener questions, including strategies for trading VIX calls and dealing with the challenge of finding favorable trading conditions. The show concludes with predictions for VIX prices in the coming week. 01:08 Welcome to Volatility Views 04:59 Market Overview and Volatility Trends 11:39 Earnings Season Insights 15:44 VIX Futures and Options Analysis 25:52 Russell's Weekly Rundown 33:47 VIX Options Tsunami 34:03 Hot Options of the Day 34:24 Jan 20 Threes Analysis 36:23 AUG 16 Puts and Ratio Spreads 41:12 Inverse Volatility Products 45:01 Volatility Voicemail 45:47 Listener Questions and Flash Polls 54:28 Crystal Ball Predictions 57:14 Show Wrap-Up and Announcements
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    1 h y 2 m
  • Volatility Views 640: Death of The Loggins and A Terrible VIX Trade

    Volatility Views 640: Death of The Loggins and A Terrible VIX Trade
    Jul 18 2025
    On this episode of Volatility Views, the hosts dive deep into various volatility trading strategies and notable market developments. Mark Longo is joined by 'Dr. Vix' Russell Rhoads and Andrew 'Rock Lobster' Giovinazzi as they discuss the enduring interest in deep put spreads, including a perplexing trade involving December 200 puts, which leaves the hosts questioning the trader's rationale. The show includes a review of weekly volatility trading activities, analysis of the volatility surface, and a discussion on upcoming events that could affect the vol space. They also engage with listener questions and poll results about premium harvesting and future outlooks for various assets. The panelists share insights into their trading strategies, with Russell revisiting his UVXY versus SVXY weekend play and Andrew providing market scenarios involving VXX erosion. The episode wraps up with predictions for next week's volatility. 01:05 Welcome to Volatility Views 01:52 Current Market Overview 02:08 New Shows and Hot Options Report 05:18 Volatility Review 15:35 Volatility Surface Analysis 25:11 Weekly Trades and Notable Moves 33:01 Evaluating the VIX Trade 34:40 Unpacking the Ratio Spread 35:29 VIX Options Activity Breakdown 41:33 Volatility ETPs Update 46:40 Listener Questions and Insights 51:05 Crystal Ball Predictions
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    59 m
  • Volatility Views 639: The Great VIX Volume Debate

    Volatility Views 639: The Great VIX Volume Debate
    Jul 11 2025
    In this episode of Volatility Views, Mark Longo, Russell Rhoads (Kelley School of Business - Indiana University), and Andrew Giovinazzi (The Option Pit) return after the July 4th holiday to delve into recent market volatility. The discussion covers the impact of tariff announcements on Brazil and Canada, leading to increased volume in VIX futures and options. Key highlights include significant trades like the Aug 25/35 vertical spread, the activity in the July 17 puts, and the unusual million-contract VIX options day amid dropping volatility. They also discuss the term structure of VIX futures, significant contango, and volatility ETPs such as SVIX, VXX, and UVXY. The episode wraps up with predictions for the VIX index for the coming week. 01:05 Welcome to Volatility Views 01:54 Post-July 4th Market Recap 05:46 Volatility Review 06:58 Market Reactions and Trade War Impact 09:35 VIX Analysis and Predictions 18:06 Historical VIX Patterns and Future Projections 27:58 Russell's Weekly Rundown 32:57 Analyzing Recent Trades 34:28 VIX Options Activity Breakdown 36:34 High Volume Day Analysis 46:14 Mentorship and Market Reactions 50:55 Volatility ETPs Overview 54:42 Crystal Ball Predictions 01:01:17 Closing Remarks and Resources
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    1 h y 2 m