Volatility Index Drops Amid Stabilizing Oil Markets: Insights into the VIX's Latest Movements
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The VIX, often called the fear gauge, measures expected near-term volatility in the S&P 500 based on option prices. Cboe reports this sharp drop follows a volatile week, with the index closing at 21.77 on February 5 per Investing.com and FRED St. Louis Fed data, up from 18.64 on February 4 and 18.00 on February 3. Earlier, it hit 16.34 on February 2, showing a quick spike and reversal.
Underlying factors include stabilizing oil markets after US strikes, as noted by Cboe, where WTI 1-month implied volatility eased from 68 percent to 51 percent amid reduced fears of supply disruptions from Iran. Unlike the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis, US inflation expectations held steady despite oil jumps. The VIXs mean-reverting nature also plays in, trending back toward long-term averages after spikes, with its inverse tie to S&P 500 gains likely aiding the decline as equities steadied.
Trends show a 52-week range of 13.38 low to 60.13 high per Cboe, with recent sessions fluctuating: percent changes like +4.35 percent, -1.63 percent, and -9.35 percent in prior days from Investing.com. VIX futures settled around 20.85 for February dates, hinting at lingering caution, while expected moves for February 11 options are plus or minus 2.27 or 12.2 percent per OptionCharts.
This pullback signals easing investor anxiety, though volatility products remain key for hedging amid geopolitical risks.
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