Unpacking The Complete Storm Team 8 Winter Outlook with Chief Meteorologist Ellen Bacca (11-28-30)

In this extended episode, host Phil Tower speaks with Storm Team 8 Chief Meteorologist, Ellen Bacca. She joined us for a look back at some of the biggest weather stories from 2025 and for an in-depth look at the Storm Team 8 Winter Weather Outlook for 2025-2026.


Some Key 2025 Michigan Weather Events:
•     A Historic Northern Michigan Ice Storm (March 28–30): An "unprecedented" ice storm struck northern Michigan, coating surfaces with up to 1.5 inches of ice. The event caused extensive damage, and Governor Whitmer declared a state of emergency.
•     Record-Active Tornado Season: In fact, Michigan had one of its most active tornado years on record, with a total of 33 confirmed tornadoes by September, more than double the annual average of around 13. The majority of the 33 tornadoes in 2025 were weak, classified as EF-0 or EF-1, which typically cause tree and minor property damage rather than significant structural devastation.
•     We also experienced a uniquely hot summer, as the summer of 2025 was noted as one of the hottest on record, not necessarily due to extreme daytime highs, but because of consistently high overnight temperatures.

For the remainder of the conversation, we asked Storm Team 8 Chief Meteorologist Ellen Bacca to highlight some of the key points of their recently released winter weather outlook for 2025-2026.
Storm Team 8 identified some key forecast drivers and a big wildcard that will impact our winter ahead, namely, a weak La Niña to start the winter--Teleconnection signals in the Gulf of Alaska and the impact of the Siberian snowpack and polar vortex activity on our weather locally.

Ellen said the official Storm Team 8 forecast indicates a good chance that La Niña will fade by January, with neutral conditions favored from January through March.

TAKEAWAYS:
Storm Team 8 Chief Meteorologist Ellen Bacca added that no two winters are ever the same, especially in West Michigan.
Winter outlooks can help shed light on trends by examining past years and established scientific linkages. Winter outlooks are based on more than a dozen variables worldwide. Changes in just one variable can have an impact on our winter here in West Michigan.
This upcoming winter is expected to start cold and snowy, with active lake-effect conditions in December and a good chance of heavy snow systems in January and February.
This winter is expected to wrap up on time with near-average snow for the season and above-average snow in the month of December. Seasonally, Grand Rapids typically averages 76-78 inches of snow on average.


The Complete Storm Team 8 Winter Weather Outlook:

Weather “Teleconnections” Explained