USDA Drops Bearish Bombshell on Corn Growers - "The Direct Payments are Gone"

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌽 Corn

Corn futures plunged on Monday, with prices down nearly 6%, marking the largest single-day decline since June 2023. The selloff followed a decidedly bearish report from the USDA.

The agency raised its estimate of the 2025 U.S. corn crop to a record 17.02 billion bushels, up 269 million bushels from the prior forecast. USDA also increased last year’s national average yield to a record 186.5 bpa, up from 186 bpa previously. Many analysts had expected cuts to both production and yield following dry fall conditions, making the revisions a surprise.

USDA also boosted December 1 corn stocks to 13.3 billion bushels, the largest Dec. 1 corn stocks on record.

🌾 Winter Wheat

US winter wheat acreage is expected to decline marginally for the 2026 crop. USDA estimates 33.0 million acres planted, slightly below last year’s 33.2 million acres but above analyst expectations of 32.4 million.

Notably, USDA is forecasting record-low winter wheat acres in Nebraska and California.

Hard red winter wheat: slightly lower year over year
Soft red winter wheat: modest increase
White winter wheat: sharp decline

🚜 Farm Policy & Aid

The American Farm Bureau Federation is calling for additional farmer aid. AFBF President Zippy Duvall said the Trump administration’s $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance program is welcomed, but falls far short of offsetting tens of billions of dollars in recent farm losses.

Duvall is urging:
Expanded trade opportunities
Labor reform
Year-round approval of E15, which could boost corn demand and lower fuel costs

Farm Bureau supports greater market access for U.S. agriculture while opposing President Trump’s tariffs.

🚢 Exports & Demand

US soybean shipments beat expectations last week. USDA reported 1.5 mmt (56 mil bu) of soybeans inspected for export during the week ending January 8 — up 55% week over week and up 13% year over year. China accounted for 59% of the total.

Corn inspections: 1.5 mmt (59 mil bu), near the upper end of expectations
Wheat inspections: 317,465 mt (12 mil bu), sharply higher week over week

USDA also announced multiple flash sales of corn:
204,000 mt to South Korea
310,000 mt to unknown destinations
Both for 2025/26 delivery.

🏛️ Macro & Markets

Republican lawmakers are pushing back against the Justice Department’s investigation into Jerome Powell, arguing it could undermine Fed independence. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly warned President Donald Trump that the probe could spook financial markets.

Trump denied knowledge of the investigation, which comes amid months of pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates further. The controversy could complicate Trump’s efforts to nominate Powell’s successor.