Trump's "Silly and Misguided" Cooking Oil Threat

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🇺🇸 Trump Eyes Cooking Oil Embargo Against China
President Trump is considering a cooking oil embargo targeting China 🇨🇳. The move follows Beijing’s refusal to buy U.S. soybeans—which Trump called an “economically hostile act.”

🛢️ Biofuels & UCO Trade Shift
Chinese used cooking oil (UCO) exports hit record highs in 2024, with the U.S. buying 1.3 MMT—43% of total exports. But those imports have likely plunged this year since biofuel tax incentives for imported UCO were eliminated. Trump says the U.S. can produce its own cooking oil supply.

🌱 Soybean Market Update
Soybean futures ticked slightly lower Tuesday despite strong export inspections — 994,000 MT last week, the best since February. Top buyers: Mexico, Spain & Bangladesh.
Corn and wheat shipments were mixed as traders remain cautious with the USDA data delay during the government shutdown.

🚢 Port Fees & Trade Tensions
Trump’s new U.S. port fees are adding pressure to Chinese shipping companies like COSCO & OOCL. China has retaliated with special vessel fees on certain U.S. ships.
👉 Note: Most grain shipments are exempt thanks to strong farm-group pushback.

🌎 Brazil Crop Outlook
🇧🇷 Conab projects record soybean output at 177.6 MMT, up 3.5% YoY, with exports near 112 MMT. Corn output seen at 138.6 MMT, with exports of 46.5 MMT (+16%).

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