Trump/Xi Meeting Still Possible + US Dollar Rally

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🇺🇸🤝🇨🇳 US-China Meeting Still On
President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are still expected to meet in South Korea at the end of the month to discuss trade. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the plans on Monday, easing fears the meeting might be canceled after a tense weekend. The news helped stocks rebound after Friday’s sell-off. Bessent said the two sides held extensive talks over the weekend and will continue discussions this week in Washington during the World Bank and IMF meetings. China’s commerce ministry reiterated it remains open to dialogue but warned the US against making threats while seeking talks.

🌽🌱 US Harvest Progress Slows
The US corn and soybean harvests are trailing last year’s pace. A Reuters poll showed corn harvest at 44% complete and soybeans at 58%, both slightly behind 2023 levels. Analysts attribute the lag to slower crop dry-down. Normally, USDA reports would confirm progress, but updates are paused due to the ongoing government shutdown.

💵📈 Dollar Rebounds Amid Trade Hopes
The US dollar climbed Monday on optimism about a potential trade deal with China, brushing off Trump’s latest tariff threats. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%, while the yen and euro weakened. Despite Friday’s market tumble, comments from Trump and Vice President JD Vance suggested openness to more talks, helping restore confidence in US markets.

🚜📊 Tractor Sales Finally Rise
US tractor sales increased 4.1% in September—the first gain in over a year. The modest rebound offers hope for the struggling farm machinery sector, though combine sales plunged 22%. Manufacturers like John Deere expect 2025 to mark the low point for sales, with recovery likely next year.

🌎🌾 China’s Soybean Imports Hit Record Levels
China imported 12.9mmt of soybeans in September, the second-highest monthly total ever and the fifth straight record. Year-to-date imports are up 5.3% from last year, driven by strong demand and higher purchases from Argentina and Brazil. China hasn’t yet bought US soybeans this season, and renewed trade tensions are casting doubt on a Trump-Xi meeting to discuss the issue.

🇧🇷🌱 Brazil’s Soybean Planting Accelerates
Soybean planting in Brazil is moving quickly—14% complete as of last week, the third-fastest pace on record. AgRural reports rapid progress despite uneven weather, with Conab projecting a 177.7mmt crop. Brazil’s first corn crop is 45% planted, slightly ahead of last year’s pace.

💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments—are markets overreacting to trade headlines?
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