Trump AGAIN Fights High Beef Prices - Is He Really Fighting the US Cattle Producer??

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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🥩 Cattle & Beef

President Trump signed an executive order allowing up to 100,000 metric tons of Argentine beef to enter the U.S. this year under a lower tariff rate. The goal is to reduce retail beef prices.
• Imports will consist only of lean beef trimmings, used primarily in ground beef
• A similar move last fall triggered sharp selloffs in cattle futures
• Beef prices did not fall meaningfully last time
• Markets will be watching closely to see if funds react again

🌱 Soybeans

Soybeans rallied for a third straight session on Friday.
• The Mar26 contract settled near $11.15, the highest since early December
• The rally followed Trump’s comments suggesting China may boost U.S. purchases to 20mmt
• Traders remain skeptical China will follow through
• Brazil’s record crop continues to hang over the market

🌽 Corn & 🌾 Wheat

Corn and wheat futures ended the session lower.
• No fresh bullish catalysts
• Focus remains on demand, fund positioning, and policy developments

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Geopolitics

Trump’s planned April visit to China may be at risk.
• The U.S. is preparing a potential $20B arms sale to Taiwan
• This follows an $11B package approved in December
• China has criticized the move, warning it could strain relations
• Trade talks could become more complicated if tensions escalate

🇮🇳 India Trade

India is considering limited ag-market access for U.S. products.
• Possible tariff reductions on soybean oil and DDGS
• India continues to block imports of GM food crops like soybeans and dairy
• Indian farmers are pushing back, citing risks to small producers

🇧🇷 Brazil Weather & Crop

Brazil’s soybean harvest is moving fast.
• ~17% harvested vs ~10% this time last year
• Yields remain strong across most regions
• StoneX projects a record 181.6mmt crop
• Argentina remains dry but rain is forecast over the next 10 days

📊 CFTC & Funds

The latest CFTC report showed modest fund buying, but it’s already outdated.
• Funds were net buyers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat during the reporting window
• Post-report price action suggests positioning has shifted significantly
• Private estimates now show large specs heavily long soybeans

⛽ Ethanol & E15

The push for year-round E15 sales continues.
• E15 accounts for ~30% of Iowa fuel sales
• Usage is growing roughly 45% annually
• Draft legislation expected by mid-February
• Political divisions could slow progress