Trade Splaining Podcast Por Ardian Mollabeqiri & Robert Skidmore arte de portada

Trade Splaining

Trade Splaining

De: Ardian Mollabeqiri & Robert Skidmore
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A fun and entertaining look at global affairs, trade and the United Nations, brought to you from the perspective of two American expats living in Switzerland. They try to keep a straight face while recapping the latest in current events and the local scene in Geneva, Switzerland as well as interviews with fellow expats on the international scene and leaders in their respective fields.Copyright 2021 All rights reserved. Ciencias Sociales Economía Política y Gobierno
Episodios
  • The Quiet Tariff Retreat, Germany's China Rethink and Banque Syz CIO on Geopolitics, Markets and "Slowbalization"
    Sep 30 2026
    The headlines say the tariff war is still raging. According to Richard Baldwin, Washington has spent the past year quietly backing away from it, one exemption and carve-out at a time. In episode 93, Robert Skidmore and I look at what that retreat means for a global trading system that increasingly seems to be organising itself around the US rather than through it. Then we sit down with Charles-Henry Monchau, Chief Investment Officer at Bank Syz, to ask how investors should think about geopolitics, industrial policy and capital flows in what he calls the era of "slowbalization." Trade policy, energy security and investment strategy are no longer separate conversations. Canada and the EU are building a deeper partnership, Germany is weighing a tougher economic-security approach to China, and an energy squeeze is heading into winter that looks a lot like 2022. Meanwhile, our guest points out that global equities were hitting record highs despite all the scary headlines. The awkward question for anyone with a portfolio, a supply chain or a heating bill is how those pieces fit together. What Went Wrong This Week The quiet tariff retreat. Baldwin argues the effective US tariff rate rose from about 2% to a peak of around 11% in October 2025, then fell to roughly 6.7% by May 2026, largely through exemptions and lower applied rates rather than public reversals. His read: the rest of the world is adapting around the US in what he calls an "N minus one" trading system.Canada and the EU move closer. A deeper strategic partnership, Mark Carney's call for a closer alliance of like-minded democracies, CETA's provisional application, and why supply chains and critical minerals are part of the story.Germany's China rethink. Bloomberg reports Berlin is preparing a tougher economic-security approach: tariffs on certain Chinese plug-in hybrids, investment screening, export controls, EU procurement preferences, local content requirements, and possibly joint-venture rules for Chinese firms in Europe. We look at "China shock 2.0," the rare earths choke point, and the price gap between a Renault EV and a BYD or Xpeng.The energy squeeze. Hormuz, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refining, record US diesel prices and the on-again, off-again talk of a US export ban, record-low EU gas storage for this time of year, and a fertilizer squeeze that could outlast the Hormuz closure itself (Peter Goodman flagged that one). The lesson: depending on US energy is now a risk you have to hedge. Our guest: Charles-Henry Monchau Charles-Henry Monchau is Chief Investment Officer and ExCo member at Bank Syz. Before that, he was CIO of Dubai Investments and head of asset allocation for EMEA at Deutsche Bank, with senior roles across Geneva, Zurich, Dubai, Nassau and Paris. He holds an executive MBA from IE Business School and an MSc in finance from HEC, is a CFA, CMT, CAIA and CIIA charterholder, and is a top voice on LinkedIn with more than 280,000 followers. In our conversation, we cover: What a CIO actually does (the answer involves an orchestra conductor and the auto industry).Why contrarian investing is easy to explain and very hard to do: the moment to take some profits is when everything looks perfect, and the hardest moment to buy risk is when it feels like the end of the world.From globalisation to "slowbalization": US-China geo-economics, sovereignty, why chips are now made at home rather than by the lowest-cost producer, and the three strategic priorities he sees: AI and robotics, defence, and electric power.Why global equities keep hitting all-time highs despite the headlines, from a record DAX with only two tech stocks to a rally broadening across Europe and emerging markets, and why he calls it "the most hated global equity bull market."Why geopolitics and geoeconomics are here to stay, as both an opportunity and a risk for investors.Why he sees the bond market as the ultimate judge of US policy, from Liberation Day to the "TACO" trade.Expat corner: what living abroad taught him about Switzerland, including direct democracy, a constitutional debt brake and a strong franc that pushes companies up the value chain.On a scale of zero to SpaceX, how worried should we be about a bubble? His answer: SpaceX is like an option. You can find Syz's investment insights on the Syz Group website and LinkedIn page. Plus: why 93 is a surprisingly good number for a trade podcast (neptunium, the end of the GATT Uruguay Round on 15 December 1993, chapter 93 of the Harmonized System, and CERN putting the World Wide Web software into the public domain), Gen Z's "Get Off My Lawn" segment, hobby-maxing as a recession indicator, AI-generated sloths on Vespas, and the return of the river otter to Geneva. This episode is brought to you by Active Languages, a Geneva-based language training company that has been helping professionals, expats and international families succeed in Switzerland for nearly 30 years. Trade Splaining listeners get a complimentary ...
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    48 m
  • Swiss Made, Chokepoints and a Digital Pandemic ft. ITU's Tomas Lamanauskas
    Sep 3 2026

    What actually happens when the internet stops working? Not the brief flicker-of-wifi kind, but a real digital pandemic - solar storms, satellite collisions, and heat waves taking out the servers holding your bank account, your health records and your group chats hostage.

    That's the world ITU Deputy Secretary-General Tomas Lamanauskas has been mapping in the International Telecommunication Union's new Digital Risk Report, and it turns out digital resilience is now squarely a trade and infrastructure story, not just an IT problem. Ardian and Rob talk to Lamanauskas about why the ITU is borrowing pandemic language to describe outages, the mechanics of Kessler Syndrome (yes, the Gravity/Armageddon scenario), why submarine cables need their own 42-expert international advisory board, and why "analog skills" - like knowing how to function without WhatsApp for an afternoon - are suddenly a policy conversation.

    Before the interview, Ardian and Rob run through this month's "What Went Wrong": why the FT thinks Swiss manufacturing faces a harder question than tariffs alone - namely, what "Swiss made" actually means once companies like Bernina start moving production to Thailand while keeping the engineering at home. They also cover Switzerland's newly upgraded free trade agreement with China, which pushes Swiss duty-free access to the Chinese market from roughly 50% to 99.8%, and the US-Canada trade collapse that the Wall Street Journal has dubbed "the stupidest trade war ever" - 50% tariffs on Canadian goods and cars, retaliatory tariffs starting September 8th, and China's opportunistic pitch to Ottawa as the more predictable trading partner.

    Plus: listener feedback on sustainable aviation fuel and greenwashing, Silicon Valley's new favorite recession indicator (limited-edition AI-branded Tudor watches), and a bridge in France that gives oversized vehicles a very unwanted haircut.

    Listen to episode 92 of Trade Splaining wherever you get your podcasts, and let us know what you think at tradesplaining@gmail.com.

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    40 m
  • Tariff Bingo: Trump vs the EU, China's Economic Fortress, and Europe's Rare Earth Problem
    Aug 13 2026

    Everyone weaponized trade policy at once this month, and the targets weren't always the obvious ones. Trump's latest tariff threats landed on the EU in retaliation for European fines on tech firms, which makes this a regulatory fight dressed up as a trade fight - and means every EU competition decision is now a potential tariff-triggering event. Add a threatened 100% tariff on generic drugs, and the low-cost end of the US supply chain starts looking fragile.

    Meanwhile the bill from the Iran war is arriving late but arriving. Strategic reserves are thinning, diesel and jet fuel are tight, and the Houthis are now vowing a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, which puts the other oil export route in play alongside Hormuz. The New York Times Peter S. Goodman takes the diesel crisis all the way down to Bangladeshi smallholder farmers who need it to pump water, which is a useful corrective to the European trucking angle. Heat is doing macro damage too: Europe's grids were built for a different climate, and retrofitting Switzerland alone for cooling carries a price tag in the hundreds of billions of francs.

    Then there's China, which is quietly running the export control playbook it spent five years complaining about. Beijing is tightening controls on outbound investment by companies and citizens, Huawei has engineered its way around US export controls with chip stacking and other workarounds, and the emerging assessment is that China came through the trade war in better shape than most of us assumed. Ardian and Rob get into whether export controls actually do anything beyond forcing innovation, whether the "Chinese model is collapsing" story is analysis or politics, and what it means for an export machine if the rest of the world eventually can't afford to buy.

    Which leads to Europe. The EU is talking tougher on Chinese overcapacity and subsidies, but China can retaliate faster through rare earths and critical inputs. Brussels keeps signing rules-based agreements - Mercosur, Switzerland, the post-Brexit deal - covering tariffs, services, labour and environmental standards, digital rules and investment protection, while US deals go transactional and bilateral. The awkward part: Europe hasn't actually used any of those agreements against subsidized Chinese manufacturing yet.

    Plus: TS correspondent Michelle returns from six months inside the Walmart employees subreddit with a report on drone cages in the parking lot, stolen Zebra scanners, and Walmart's two podcasts. There's a global whey protein shortage, a Geneva perch bumper crop, a man who allegedly stole a Sea-Doo in Canada and livestreamed his illegal border crossing, and an Air Canada pilot who spent 17 years in the cockpit without a licence.

    🎧 Listen here: [link]

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    34 m
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Fantastically presented, paced, very funny and informative. Love the podcast, especially the chemistry between the two hosts!

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