Oil shocks used to feel like something that happened in markets, headlines and awkward economist panels. Not anymore.

In this episode of Trade Splaining, we look at how the latest energy shock is moving from oil markets into the parts of the economy people actually feel - airfares, airline schedules, fuel tanks, EV demand, government energy policy and, potentially, your next holiday. The Strait of Hormuz crisis is no longer just a geopolitics story. It is becoming a consumer story, a transport story and a very expensive reminder that energy security still runs through some very narrow places.

This week, Marie Owens Thomsen, Chief Economist at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), joins the show to explain why aviation is facing what she calls a double energy crisis: an oil crisis and a refining crisis. Airlines do not fly on crude oil - they fly on jet fuel. And when jet fuel prices rise sharply, airlines face immediate pressure on costs, routes, pricing and survival.

Marie breaks down why sustainable aviation fuel is not as simple as “just make greener jet fuel,” why refineries are far more interconnected than most people realise, and why the future of flying depends on much bigger questions around energy systems, investment, infrastructure and political timelines. In other words: aviation may be only a small slice of refined fuel output, but when the system starts creaking, everyone notices.

Also in this episode: Trump and Xi apparently make trade nice again - details pending, napkins possibly missing - Europe’s airlines brace for higher costs, EVs get a crisis-driven boost, Swatch and Audemars Piguet release expensive pendant-shaped plastic, Switzerland accidentally gets a king, and Italy battles the real menace of our time: marauding peacocks.

• How the Hormuz crisis is feeding into fuel prices, airline costs and travel disruption
• Why jet fuel is not the same thing as crude oil - and why that matters
• How higher fuel prices could affect airfares, routes and airline profitability
• Why Europe may be especially exposed to aviation fuel shocks
• Marie Owens Thomsen on IATA, sustainability and the future of air transport
• Why sustainable aviation fuel requires a whole energy-system rethink
• How refinery economics shape the future of aviation
• Whether this crisis could accelerate renewable energy and alternative fuels
• The strange incentives now facing governments, airlines and consumers
• Switzerland’s self-declared king and Italy’s peacock problem

Marie Owens Thomsen is Chief Economist at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), where she is also responsible for environmental and sustainability activities and serves on IATA’s Management Committee. She previously worked at Lombard Odier as Head of Global Trends and Sustainability and has held senior roles across investment banking, private banking and international economics.

Trade Splaining, IATA, Marie Owens Thomsen, aviation, airfares, jet fuel, oil shock, Strait of Hormuz, energy crisis, sustainable aviation fuel, SAF, airline industry, global trade, energy security, transport, geopolitics, supply chains, renewable energy, refining crisis, airlines, EV demand, global economy.

Episode 87 - USMCA Uncertainty, Trade Fragmentation & the Future of Supply Chains

Global trade is shifting - and not everyone agrees on where it’s heading.

In this episode, we break down the growing uncertainty around USMCA, the rise of trade fragmentation, and what it means when the system moves away from efficiency toward resilience.

We also sit down with Will Petty, Global Head of Product Development at A.P. Moller - Maersk Trade & Customs Consulting, to understand how companies are actually responding on the ground - from navigating tariffs to rethinking supply chains and compliance.

Key topics include:

• Is USMCA at risk - and what happens if it unravels
• Why the US is pushing bilateral over regional trade deals
• The shift from “just in time” to “just in case” supply chains
• Commodity fragmentation - from copper pricing gaps to stockpiling
• Why resilience comes with real economic costs (inflation, inefficiency, volatility)
• How companies are adapting to tariff complexity and geopolitical disruption
• The growing importance of supply chain data, traceability, and compliance
• Will supply chains get shorter - or just more complicated?

With Will Petty (Maersk), we discuss:

• How businesses are reacting to constant disruption
• The real-world impact of tariffs and shifting trade flows
• Why understanding your supply chain is now a competitive advantage
• The risk - and opportunity - of shrinking supply chains

Plus:

• Expat insights
• Geneva kebab rankings
• And the unexpected return of… mall culture

Episode 86 – Is the WTO Still Relevant? MC14, Trade Chaos & a Surprisingly Resilient System | Peter Foster (FT)

🎧 Listen: t.ly/K4Jnc

Has the global trading system fundamentally broken — or is it proving more resilient than expected?

In Episode 86 of Trade Splaining, we sit down with Peter Foster, World Trade Editor at the Financial Times, to unpack the real outcomes of WTO Ministerial Conference 14 (MC14) and what they reveal about the future of global trade.

MC14: What actually happened The conference ended with limited concrete outcomes, highlighting deep divisions — particularly around the e-commerce moratorium and broader reform efforts.

Is the WTO still relevant? We explore whether the WTO is adapting to a new global reality or slowly drifting toward irrelevance in a world dominated by great power politics.

Rise of regional and plurilateral deals As consensus becomes harder, countries are increasingly turning to smaller coalitions and regional agreements to move forward.

Trade policy chaos From “napkin deals” to unpredictable negotiations, the current trade environment is becoming harder for governments and businesses to navigate.

The big paradox: trade resilience Despite rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions, global trade flows have remained surprisingly stable — raising questions about how much has really changed.

Even in a more fragmented and politically charged world, global trade continues to function — not because the system is strong, but because the incentives to keep it going are still stronger.

00:00 – Intro & episode 86 (Radon edition) 03:20 – Interview with Peter Foster 05:00 – MC14 recap 10:00 – WTO relevance debate 16:00 – Trade resilience vs tariffs 20:00 – Future of global trade 24:00 – Local news (Swiss cheese diplomacy 🧀)

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