"Trade Deal Rumors" were Wrong - Grain Markets Tumble

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0:00 No Trade Deals, Markets Tumble
2:07 OBBB and Farmers
3:42 Tariff Deadlines
6:38 Drought/Weather Update
8:23 Record Corn Export Program Possible?
9:50 Russia Slashes Wheat Export Tax
10:57 Flash Sales

🇺🇸 President Trump’s Rally in Iowa: “One Big Beautiful Bill” Signed Into Law! 🚜📉🔥
President Trump took the stage in Des Moines on Thursday, celebrating the passage of his massive new tax and spending bill — claiming it will “Make America Great Again” 🇺🇸💵. While no new trade deals were announced (despite trader hopes), he highlighted 🔻 egg prices, 🔥 US military action in Iran, and ⬇️ border crossings. He also reassured farmers their labor force is safe, though details were thin. 🌽🚫 Corn & soybean futures are sharply lower this morning as trade rumors fizzled out.

📜 What’s in the “Big Beautiful Bill”?
✅ $68.3B in new farm program funding
✅ Higher PLC & ARC reference prices for this crop year
✅ Increased payment limits & lifted income caps
✅ Up to 30M new base acres allowed (2019–2023 history)
✅ $6.3B for crop insurance over 10 years
✅ Expanded premium support for beginning farmers
✅ 🇺🇸 US-only feedstock rule for biofuel tax credits (2026)
✅ 🔁 Extension of 45Z through 2029
✅ ✂️ SAF credit cut from $1.75 ➡️ $1.00/gal
✅ ⛽️ Boost to biomass-based diesel

🛃 Tariff Deadline Extended?
Originally set for July 9, the tariff deadline may be pushed to August 1 for countries still negotiating 🤝. Sec. Bessent says talks with 18 major partners are ongoing — with frameworks announced for 🇬🇧 UK, 🇨🇳 China, and 🇻🇳 Vietnam. Still pending: 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇮🇳 India, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇪🇺 EU.

🌧️ Drought Update: Big Improvement!
Thanks to recent rains, drought conditions dropped sharply across the 🌽 Corn Belt and 🌾 High Plains!
🔹 Corn: 12% in drought
🔹 Soybeans: 8%
🔹 Winter wheat: 24%
🔹 Spring wheat: 29%
🔹 Cattle areas: 18%

📦 Export Sales Recap:
🔹 Corn: 532,700mt ➡️ ⬇️ 28% vs. last week
🔹 Soybeans: 462,400mt ➡️ ⬆️ 15% vs. last week
🔹 Wheat: 586,000mt ➡️ ⬆️ strong sales led by 🇵🇭 Philippines

📢 Flash Sales Alert:
✔️ 150,000mt corn
✔️ 226,000mt soybeans
✔️ 195,000mt soymeal (spread across 24/25 & 25/26)

🌍 Russia Cuts Wheat Export Tax to Zero!
🇷🇺 In a surprise move, Russia slashed its wheat export tax to zero for July 9–15 to boost weak overseas demand. June wheat exports were just 1.1mmt — a fraction of last year’s volume. Expect volatility in global wheat markets to continue.

📊 See all charts below & don’t miss today’s premium breakdown with Paul Neiffer!
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