Tim Jones – Europe's Macro Outlook: Monetary Policy, Political Risks, and Fiscal Divide

In this episode, Tim Jones, Lead Policy Analyst at Medley Advisors, discusses the European Central Bank's rate outlook against a backdrop of shifting macro conditions and rising downside risks. He explores how currency moves and commodity prices could fuel disinflation, the fragility of services inflation, and what might trigger further policy easing. Tim also examines the EU's widening fiscal and political cracks within the EU, growing fiscal divergence between Germany and France, and the potential impacts of transatlantic relations with the US. Tim concludes with insights on European bond issuance and the structural shifts investors should watch for in the quarters ahead.

This episode was recorded on August 13, 2025.