Today's guest is best known for his HOPE framework, a highly effective way to measure the health of the economy, and tell whether it's getting stronger or weaker.As we enter the second half of 2025 -- with momentum stocks stumbling while the markets remain richly valued near all-time highs -- what does his framework tell us 2025 has in store?To find out, we have the good fortune to speak today with Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist & managing director at Piper Sandler.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#housingmarket #employment #recession _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Investors appear just blind to risk at this point.Portfolio manager Lance Roberts says he hasn't seen this high degree of speculation in the markets since 1999.At some point, the chickens will likely come back to roost. But in the near term, the essential question investors need to address is: How much higher will the rally continue?Lance and I discuss the odds, as well as what to expect from the start of Q2 earnings season, whether the Fed will cut soon and if that will be a "sell the news event". As always, we close by discussing Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything the mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#earnings #bullmarket #ratecut _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Well, now that President Trump has set into motion the main pillars of his economic policy -- trade reform, tax cuts and deregulation -- what should we expect from here?I can think of few better people to hear from on this topic than today's guest, who is one of the key economic advisors to President Trump and his cabinet membersToday, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program economist Dr Arthur Laffer. He was the first to hold the title of Chief Economist at the Office of Management and Budget in the early 1970s. He then later served as a member of President Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board. He's perhaps best known for developing the Laffer curve, a model for determining the optimal balance between tax revenues and economic growth.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#taxes #tariffs #economy _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Analyst Stephanie Pomboy returns for her bi-weekly macro & market update.We discuss the ongoing slowdown in consumer spending, the repercussions of stubbornly high bond yields, the impact of the latest tariff developments and the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill, as well as where she thinks the economy is ultimately headed.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#recession #bondyields #tariffs _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comIn today's discussion we look at the all-important energy market. Remember, without energy, there is no economy.As we look to the future, where are global energy trends headed?How are the policies of the new Trump administration likely to impact these trends?And where are the best opportunities for investors likely to lie?Below are the Doomberg posts mentioned in this discussion:The Fix Is In:https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/da6e6e36-e1db-4d53-b100-c82317ca3327Alberta Clipper:https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/26dd5c88-314e-415e-93d7-95616fd73eeaChina Through the Lens of Energy:https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/52366083-26e1-4289-899a-9352fb196a53#energy #china #naturalgas 0:00 - Significant Energy Trends of 20254:32 - Oil Price Equilibrium and Risk Premium9:48 - Natural Gas as an Oil Substitute15:02 - Natural Gas and AI Energy Demands20:37 - Nuclear vs. Natural Gas Solutions25:07 - China’s Energy Advantage and U.S. Response29:30 - China’s Energy Supply Chain37:36 - Impact of Trump’s Energy Policies41:24 - Trump’s Policies and National Prosperity47:58 - Rebuilding the U.S. Energy Grid49:48 - Investment Opportunities in Energy54:10 - Arbitrage Opportunities Over Time55:19 - Canada’s Energy Reforms Post-Election1:04:02 - Data Centers in Cold Regions1:10:13 - Closing and Resources:_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

When you're uncertain, they say to seek the counsel of those smarter than you.Well, amongst the many experts I interview on this channel, Michael Green is definitely in the top cohort intellectual horsepower-wise.Mike is portfolio manager & chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management. And today, we'll tap his latest thinking on the stock market, the credit markets, the economy, and where the new Administration's policies are taking us.Mike is one of the top experts on how passive capital flows (aka the "giant mindless robot") have been propelling stocks to record levels of (over?)valuation.Well, for the first time in a long time, we're starting to see those passive inflows falter.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#passivecapitalflows #giantmindlessrobot #unemployment _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.