Pendulum's Heather Bakken and Yaroslav Baran break down the narrow but decisive passage of Canada’s federal budget — a vote that hinged on the Green Party's unexpected support for the Liberals and the abstentions of some opposition MPs.

Baran explains the political theatre and narrows in on parliamentary procedure to debunk speculation about the Speaker’s role with a clear walk-through of the Denison rule, which would have forced a vote against the budget had the numbers deadlocked.

Zooming back out they provide a political assessment on why no party truly wanted an election: Liberals seeking stability while sitting just shy of a majority, Conservatives wrestling with internal turbulence and slipping momentum, the Bloc seeing low-risk upside, and the NDP effectively immobilized without a permanent leader.

With the budget through the final confidence vote, Baran and Bakken outline what comes next: budget-implementation legislation, major defence and infrastructure spending, and a political landscape that, for now, settles into a fragile, functional calm ...until the Pendulum swings again.

Canada's long awaited budget will be tabled on November 4th. It's the first one in 18 months and will lay out the new Carney government's agenda from a dollars and cents perspective.

What are the signals it will send to the markets? How does the process work? And what are the politics at play?

Yaroslav and Heather discuss the play-by-play process, estimates, ways and means vote, implementation bills, and more.

Sound complicated?

Hear from the guy (aka Yaroslav) who used to help whip the vote on The Hill and can nerd out in plain language to help you understand how it all works.

Headline spoiler: despite all the hoopla about a Christmas election, voters will probably be spared another trip to the polls by a few too many bathroom breaks. At least for now.

We’re unpacking Canada’s evolving Indo-Pacific strategy: what it means, where it’s headed and why it matters now more than ever.

This week Yaroslav Baran is joined by two luminaries of foreign policy and trade with a particular expertise in the Asia-Pacific region: Vina Najibulla is Vice-President, Research & Strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada and Jonathan Berkshire Miller is Co-Founder & Principal at Pendulum Geopolitical Advisory.

Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand has just completed a whirlwind tour of China, Singapore, and India—three countries chosen with clear intent. This marks the Carney government’s first major diplomatic engagement in Asia, signaling a strategic re-entry into a region that’s central to Canada’s long-term economic and geopolitical interests.

So what is Canada trying to achieve? And is it working?

Three key messages emerged from this tour:

1. The Indo-Pacific remains a top priority—Canada is serious about diversifying its economic and security relationships beyond the U.S. and Europe.
2. Diplomacy is shifting toward pragmatism, with engagement even in complex relationships like those with China and India.
3. Economic resilience is front and center, with a renewed push to deepen commercial ties and reduce over-reliance on traditional partners.

Minister Anand’s visit also laid the groundwork for Prime Minister Carney’s upcoming trip to Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea, where he’ll attend the ASEAN and APEC summits. This is a long-anticipated opportunity for Canada to articulate its regional priorities and engage in high-level bilateral meetings, including potential talks with China and key ASEAN partners.

One of the most notable developments is Canada’s first-ever comprehensive economic partnership agreement with Indonesia—a major milestone in our ASEAN engagement. This deal includes non-tariff access for Canadian goods.

Whether it’s in ASEAN, South Asia, or the broader Indo-Pacific, collaboration with India will be key to a truly connected and resilient strategy.