Are these five budget “pillars” going to lift Canada’s GDP—or just move numbers around? Mike Wixson and Paul Micucci unpack the 2025 federal budget’s shiny new framework, the shift to accrual accounting, and whether the promised investments actually produce returns (not losses). We separate operating vs. capital, look at defense, housing, trade corridors, AI/SHRED incentives, immigration talent, and ask the only question that matters: does this plan improve productivity and profitability by 2027—or do we pivot fast?

What you’ll learn:

• The 5 “pillars” and why they read like marketing—vs. what’s really funded

• Accrual accounting 101: how capitalizing projects changes the deficit picture

• Where dollars actually land in 2026–2027 (and what’s deferred)

• Housing push vs. existing homeowners: who benefits, who doesn’t

• Defense spend on a 5-year clock: gear now, shipyards later

• AI, SHRED, and tax measures—smart incentives or soft costs?

• Trade strategy beyond the U.S.: ports, corridors, and realism checks

• The guardrails Canada needs (reporting, ROI, pivot points)

Chapters:

00:00 Why the budget changed (cash → accrual)

03:05 The 5 pillars vs. real allocations

08:42 Capital vs. operating—how the deficit “shrinks” on paper

14:10 Housing & affordability: builds, incentives, and consequences

20:25 Productivity test: projects that actually sell things

27:10 Defense & sovereignty: near-term buys, long-term gaps

33:00 AI/SHRED & talent: incentives that work (and don’t)

38:45 Trade routes & corridors: cost vs. payoff

43:30 Bottom line: GDP/productivity by 2027—or pivot

Our take: Canada can’t afford projects that don’t generate returns. If these pillars don’t raise productivity and GDP by 2027, we need transparent scorecards and a hard pivot—fast.

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Canada’s 2025 federal budget just changed the rules—and your bill. Mike Wixson and Paul Micucci unpack how a record $78.3B deficit, a higher $2.54T debt ceiling, and a shift to accrual accounting actually work, using a simple “two buckets” model you’d use at home or in a small business. Clear, plain-English breakdown—no spin.

What you’ll learn:

• The “Bucket 1 vs. Bucket 2” model: operating deficit vs. capital spending

• Why the accounting switch (cash → accrual) changes how numbers appear

• Where revenue growth comes from (personal, corporate, GST/excise, EI)

• The biggest expense drivers (health transfers, seniors’ benefits, debt interest)

• How much new financing is required and why project ROI now matters

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