Episodios

  • #334: First Home Frenzy - How the 5% Deposit Scheme Will Rock the Market & Supercharge Prices for First Home Buyers, Upgraders & Investors
    Nov 3 2025
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    In this week’s episode, the Trio unpack one of the most impactful housing policy changes we’ve seen in years: the expansion of the Home Guarantee Scheme. As of 1 October, eligible first home buyers can now enter the market with just a 5% deposit and without paying Lenders Mortgage Insurance. And the ripple effects are already being felt across the country.

    🏡 What’s Changed & Why It Matters
    Mike kicks things off with the big picture: income caps are gone, price caps are up, and the government is backing loans to get first-timers into their homes sooner. Dave explains how removing income limits and lifting price ceilings, (in some cities by hundreds of thousands) effectively signals both first home buyers and investors to jump in before prices move. Cate highlights that even extremely high-income buyers now qualify; a huge shift from the previous capped system. This policy isn’t subtle. Median-value homes in major cities are suddenly on the table with just a 5% deposit, and the Trio discuss how this is set to turbocharge demand in tightly-contested price brackets.

    🔍 Lived Reality & Market Signals
    Cate shares what she’s seeing on the ground. First home buyer confidence is up and brokers are reporting a surge in FHB pre-approvals. Dave breaks down the lender variations too because even though there are 33 participating lenders, each has its own rules on how much savings buyers must contribute.

    💰 The Numbers That Matter
    Using an $800k purchase example, Cate shows just how game-changing this is: requiring only $40k instead of $160k saves years of waiting, plus buyers avoid tens of thousands in Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI). But beware...stamp duty can still bite hard, especially in VIC and NSW, and in some cases can even exceed the deposit. That means a 5% deposit isn’t the whole story. Buyers still need buffers and strategy.

    📈 Will This Push Prices Up?
    Short answer: yes. Treasury forecasts a modest 0.5% uplift, but independent modelling suggests growth from 3.5–6.5% in key price brackets is more likely, especially where demand is already hot. Over time, supply could catch up, but in the short term, the Trio expect competition to rise. The scheme creates opportunity, but strategy, buffers, and smart lending advice remain essential. This initiative is great for the right buyers, not a cure-all for affordability, and definitely a market-mover.

    And our gold nuggets!.....

    Cate Bakos's gold nugget: Cate reflects on the policy, and what she'd do differently. "I do like the policy, but I don't like price caps. They segment markets". Cate proposes an uncapped offering.

    Dave Johnston's gold nugget: Dave feels the policy makers could have spent more time on the scheme to have it more appropriately targeted. He uses singles without parental support as a key example of one of the categories of buyers who really need the help.

    Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/11/03/fhb-deposit-guarantee/
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    51 m
  • #333: Why Media Predictions About Crashes, Cliffs & Corrections Keep Getting It Wrong
    Oct 27 2025
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    This week, Mike, Cate and Dave take a data-driven look at the property predictions that missed the mark. From mortgage cliffs to phantom crashes, the Trio revisit some of the biggest doomsday headlines of recent years and unpack what actually happened in the market.

    💥 The Mortgage Cliff That Wasn’t
    Remember the panic about borrowers “falling off a cliff” when fixed-rate loans expired? The Trio revisit those 2023 headlines that warned of a 63% surge in repayments and a flood of defaults. While repayments did bite, the wave of foreclosures never arrived. Borrowers used buffers, refinanced, and adapted, and instead of collapsing, home values rose nearly 9% through the year. Cate points out that strong employment and low supply were the shock absorbers that kept the market steady.

    📉 The Crash That Never Came
    When ANZ predicted a 20% house-price drop, commentators braced for disaster. Instead, the market dipped 8.4% peak-to-trough before rebounding almost the same amount within a year. Mike calls it “a blip, not a bust,” while Dave explains how migration, tight listings, and undersupply pulled prices back up faster than expected. Cate reminds listeners that “fastest fall” doesn’t mean “deepest”. Many headlines confused speed with severity.

    🏠 Distress vs Data
    The Trio also tackle repossession myths and “negative equity” scares. Bank repossessions rose 160%, but this figure rose "from virtually nothing to slightly more than nothing", according to Mike. Only around 5% of resales were loss-making by late 2024, and even at the trough, nine in ten sellers made a profit. Dave sums it up: “Australians hold for the long run, you don’t crystallise a loss if you don’t sell.”

    📊 Myths, Models & Misreads
    From 18-year-cycle theories to “foreign exodus” fears, the Trio show how simple narratives often ignore complex fundamentals. Migration, supply, and employment keep shaping the market far more than any cosmic cycle or international buyer movement. Cate reflects that property astrology might be fun at parties.... but it’s useless for planning.

    As Dave says, “Doom sells, but data wins.” The Australian property market keeps bending, never breaking, and that resilience is worth remembering the next time a headline screams catastrophe.

    And our gold nuggets!.....

    Dave Johnston's gold nugget: As Dave says, “Doom sells, but data wins.” Dave reflects on the elements that mitigate crisis in our property markets.

    Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: Mike wanted to share some resilience for people who can get scared by these types of headlines. "If you see a headline predicting a disaster, remember that Australia's proeprty market is much more rubber ball, than crystal vase."

    Cate Bakos's gold nugget: Cate reflects on the previous downturns we've had and she encourages listeners to check out the chart cited in the show notes.

    Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/10/27/media-predictions-about-crashes/
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    44 m
  • #332: Market Update September 2025 – Confidence in Price Growth Hits 15-Year High, Values Lift Nationwide & FHB Scheme Fuels the Fire
    Oct 20 2025
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    In this month’s Property Trio market update, Mike, Cate, and Dave unpack the latest September market figures — and there’s a lot to cover! 📊

    💥 Nationally, growth is back on track, with all capital cities in positive territory. Darwin leads the charge at 1.7% monthly growth, while Perth and Brisbane have regained strong momentum since the first rate cut in February. Hobart has just ticked into positive territory, and Dave notes we’re now deep into a broad national upswing. With three rate reductions already delivered and the chance of another early next year, the Trio remain positive about 2026.

    💬 Melbourne takes the spotlight as Cate shares insights from the ground that challenge the headline data. While median values suggest Melbourne is lagging, activity in the sub-$950K range is surging. This surge has been fuelled by the new deposit guarantee threshold and rising investor interest. The middle and lower quartiles are performing strongly, even as the top end remains subdued.

    📈 Regional markets are holding firm, led by WA, SA and Queensland, with continued investor activity in Geelong and Ballarat. Cate reports fierce competition in Victoria’s regions, a reminder that data can miss the true pace of local markets.

    🔥 Darwin dominates Cotality’s “Chart of the Month”, with double-digit growth since February, while Sydney’s blue-chip Milsons Point and Kirribilli recorded the steepest declines.

    🏠 Meanwhile, rents continue to surge, with Darwin and Hobart leading gains. Vacancy rates remain critically low — just 0.4% in Hobart and 1.8% in Melbourne — signalling an ongoing rental crisis driven by housing shortages and a struggling construction sector.

    🔨 Builder insolvencies remain high and trade shortages are worsening, pushing up costs and limiting new housing supply. As Mike notes, it’s still cheaper to buy established than build — and that gap isn’t closing soon.

    💰 Consumer sentiment has dipped, but expectations for price growth are at a 15-year high — proof that optimism (and FOMO) are alive and well. 🎧 Tune in as the Trio decode the data, share their local insights, and explore what’s next for Australia’s property market.

    Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/10/20/ep-332-september-2025-market-update/
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    52 m
  • #331: Property Planning Dilemmas – How to Navigate Investments That Limit Your Ability to Buy a Future Home
    Oct 13 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    🎙️This week, the Trio tackle a fantastic listener question from Alex, who, along with his partner, has done an incredible job kickstarting their property journey early — but now faces a common crossroads. 🏡💭


    💬 Alex’s Story:
    At just 28, Alex and his partner have built an impressive portfolio of two investment properties (townhouses) in Melbourne’s north: one in Reservoir and one in Pascoe Vale. Both are on solid incomes and have managed their expenses well while still living at home. However, now they are thinking about the next life stage; marriage, a family, and their own place to call home. Their dilemma? With two investment loans already on the books and rising property prices in Melbourne, their borrowing capacity for a family home feels stretched thin. They’re unsure whether to hold, sell, move in, or pivot entirely.

    Mike hosts this exciting episode, and Dave and Cate enjoy sharing some of their data and considerations.

    🏠 Dave unpacks the starting point:
    When you’re looking to transition from investor to owner-occupier, planning ahead is critical. Dave discusses how cash flow, borrowing capacity, and upcoming lifestyle changes, (such as dropping to one income when kids arrive) must all feed into a forward-looking financial plan. He also highlights the value of scenario modelling to stress test each option before taking action. 📈 Cate dives into the townhouse question:
    Alex worries that his townhouses won’t keep pace with freestanding homes in terms of growth. Cate explores how to assess the quality and location of existing assets. Not all townhouses are created equal. She explains what makes some outperform others, and why strategic "hold" decisions can sometimes deliver better long-term results than reactive selling.

    💡 Dave runs the numbers:
    Dave breaks down the five key scenarios Alex could consider, from keeping both investments and waiting, to selling one or both, or even moving into one temporarily. He walks listeners through how borrowing capacity shifts with each scenario and the trade-offs between short-term comfort and long-term wealth creation.

    🧭 Big takeaways:
    This conversation is a powerful reminder that strategy must come before action. As Dave notes, it’s easy to get caught up in the excitement of buying property without thinking through how each purchase impacts your next goal. Cate adds that clarity around timelines, lifestyle priorities, and risk tolerance is the foundation of smart decision-making. Whether you’re in Alex’s shoes or planning ahead for your next chapter, this episode is packed with valuable insights on balancing life goals with property ambitions.

    And our gold nuggets!.....

    Dave Johnston's gold nugget: The benefits of a long term, well thought out family home go beyond just lifestyle and happiness. From tax considerations to the benefits of a longer tenure, Dave puts up a compelling option.

    Cate Bakos's gold nugget: Cate gives some good advice to those who are considering rent-vesting. "Be very clear about when you want your family home."

    Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: Mike talks about the elephant in the room; the differential between the performance of the townhouses and a family home.

    Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/10/13/property-planning-dilemmas/
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    52 m
  • #330: Inside the 2025 PIPA Investor Survey - What Investors Really Think About Property and the Future of Property Investment
    Oct 6 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    🎙️In this week’s episode, Dave, Cate and Mike unpack the eye-opening results from PIPA’s 2025 Annual Property Investor Sentiment Survey, now in its 11th year. As two of PIPA’s board members, Cate and Mike bring insider insights into what’s really behind the growing number of investor exits, and what it all means for Australia’s tight rental market.

    🏠 The headline figure is striking: 16.7% of investors sold at least one property in the past year. This is the highest rate since the question was first introduced in 2022. Cate explains how rising costs, increasing legislative uncertainty, and fears over potential tax reforms are driving investors out just when rental demand is at record highs.

    🌏 Dave turns the focus to the cities, asking whether Victoria remains the hardest hit. Mike reveals that while Melbourne’s investor sale rate climbed slightly to 22.1%, Brisbane (19.7%) and Perth (11%) aren’t far behind. It’s not just a Victorian problem; it’s national. Cate ponders the idea that some Perth investors might be finally “cashing out” after a decade of sluggish returns, showing how long-term fatigue and short-term gains can both influence investor behaviour.

    🏡 Regional markets tell their own story. Cate shares that regional Queensland led the country with 15.8% of investors selling, (more than double last year’s figure), while regional Victoria recorded 7.9%, and regional NSW fell sharply to 5.5%. She suggests that recent interest rate cuts may have steadied nerves in NSW, while Queensland’s strong capital gains tempted investors to sell.

    💰 Who’s buying these properties? Mike notes that 42% of sales went to other investors (up from 31% last year), but the rest were snapped up by first home buyers. It’s a bittersweet outcome: great for new homeowners, but another hit to rental supply as more properties leave the investor pool.

    📉 Cate delves into the reasons for selling, citing rising compliance and insurance costs, the desire to reduce debt, and increasing frustration over complex rental reforms. Policy uncertainty looms large, with more than half of respondents saying they’d stop investing if negative gearing rules changed, and 35% saying they’d exit if CGT discounts were reduced.

    ⚠️ Mike raises another concern—communication breakdown. A massive 64% of investors were unaware of Victoria’s new vacant land tax, and 60% had only limited understanding of tenancy law changes. Even more startling, 10% said they’d never heard from their state government at all. This lack of engagement leaves investors navigating complex changes blindfolded.

    🌈 But there’s a silver lining. Despite the challenges, confidence is on the rise—nearly 60% of investors believe the next 12 months present good buying opportunities. And in a surprise twist, Melbourne has reclaimed top spot as Australia’s preferred investment destination, leaping from 26% last year to 41%.

    💡 Tune in to hear The Trio unpack this up-to-the-minute findings, their message to policymakers, and their rationale behind the findings. Listeners can request a copy of the survey results by contacting us.

    And our gold nuggets!.....

    Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: Mike makes the point about increasing tax losses since 2020/2021's tax year impacting the investor cohort significantly.

    Cate Bakos's gold nugget: Cate puts her PIPA board member hat on and encourages our community of investors to participate in the survey next year.

    Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/10/06/pipa-investor-sentiment-survey-2025/
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    41 m
  • #329: Climate Change and Property - How to Navigate the Challenges & Avoid Costly Mistakes
    Sep 29 2025
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    🎙️This week on The Property Trio, Mike, Cate and Dave dive into how environmental risks are reshaping the housing market, from skyrocketing insurance premiums to property value discounts in flood-prone areas.

    🌏 The scale of the risk is staggering. Drawing on the Climate Council’s At Our Front Door report and the latest insurance data, the Trio unpack what “moderate” and “high-risk” actually mean for everyday Australians. With more than two million homes already exposed, and suburbs like Hawkesbury and Brisbane at the front line, the warnings of 2019 and 2022 are no longer projections, they’re reality.

    💰 Insurance has become the frontline battle. The average Australian might pay around $2,200 for home and contents cover, but in high-risk zones, families are seeing $7,000, $12,000, even $30,000 premiums. For some, the flood component alone tops $8,000 annually. The Trio explore how these costs push households into stress, and why underinsurance, (or no insurance at all), is becoming common in vulnerable regions.

    🏠 Property markets are already adjusting. Buyers are cautious, lenders are wary, and price discounts are appearing. UTS research showed Richmond homes in 1-in-100 flood zones selling for nearly 11% less, while post-flood Lismore recorded value drops of around 30%. Across Narrabri, Forbes, and even Sydney pockets like Windsor, the same hesitation is taking hold.

    📊 The bigger picture matters too. Disasters are costing billions annually, with projections hitting $94 billion per year by 2060 under high-emission scenarios. Banks, heavily exposed to mortgages, face systemic risks, while lower-income households bear the brunt. Yet preparedness lags, with builders, codes, and infrastructure still playing catch-up.

    🛠️ So what can investors do? The Trio share a practical five-step checklist:
    1. Use the data—flood maps, hazard reports, and council resources.
    2. Get insurance quotes before you buy.
    3. Assess the build—look for resilience features.
    4. Diversify your portfolio across regions and risks.
    5. Stay alert to policy and regulation changes.
    ⚠️ Climate change isn’t just about the weather, it’s about the numbers. Premiums, property values, and policies are shifting now. Smart investors who stress-test their assumptions will stay ahead; those who ignore the data risk owning tomorrow’s troubled assets.

    Listeners can request Mike's checklist by contacting us.

    And our gold nuggets!.....

    Cate Bakos's gold nugget: Cate takes listeners through her process for checking online quotes through insurers. Not a precise solution on it's own, but a very good gauge for flagging potential issues from the onset.

    Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: Mike warns listeners about the reliability (or unreliability) of online insurance calculators for determining insurance rebuild cost estimates.

    David Johnston's gold nugget: Dave echoes Mike's point, and reminds our listeners about the importance of adhering to a robust checklist associated with avoiding risks when it comes to property selection.

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/09/29/climate-change-and-property/

    And registrations are open for our early 2026 LIVE session in Melbourne. Seats are limited, so don't delay! Reach out to us to reserve your place.

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    41 m
  • #328: Avoiding Compromised Investments - Should You Buy Now or Save More? Plus the Real Cost of Overpriced New Builds
    Sep 22 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    🎙️This week on The Property Trio, Cate and Dave field two great listener questions. Max, a young investor weighing his options for a second property asks: Should I buy now at 90% LVR and pay lenders mortgage insurance (LMI), or wait until I save for 80% LVR and a lower rate? 💡 Getting in sooner

    Dave explains that buying at 90% LVR can bring a purchase forward by one to three years, giving valuable time for capital growth. While LMI and slightly higher interest rates add costs, these are often outweighed by early market entry—provided investors maintain cashflow buffers and commit to a long holding period.

    📉 Avoid the cheaper asset trap
    Cate warns that buying a lower-quality property to get in sooner is risky. Compromises in location, dwelling type, or fundamentals can significantly underperform over time. Even small differences in annual growth rates can compound into major wealth gaps.

    🎙️ Our second listener question is from from Peter, who’s weighing up what dwelling types to invest in Melbourne with a budget of $500k–$650K. Peter also asks the Trio whether a new build in Perth could deliver stronger long-term returns.

    🏡 Peter shares that he’s been pitched house-and-land and townhouse packages by property investment groups, only to find they’re priced $50k–$100k higher than local builder offerings. This raises red flags for the Trio, who unpack how “introducers” and commission-driven sales can inflate prices and compromise buyers’ outcomes. Cate warns of the dangers of overpaying, the poor land-to-asset ratio of new builds, and the risk of investing in stock that lacks scarcity or uniqueness. 📉 Dave builds on this by explaining how oversupply in fringe estates puts capital growth under pressure. When developers keep releasing new stock, yesterday’s shiny home quickly becomes tomorrow’s dated dwelling. Together, the Trio emphasise that buying brand-new—whether in Melbourne or Perth—comes with hidden risks, from inflated valuations at settlement to lower demand from owner-occupiers down the track.

    The discussion then pivots to alternative strategies. Rather than chasing fringe house-and-land packages, Cate suggests exploring established units and boutique apartments in well-located Melbourne suburbs where buyers can tap into amenity, strong transport links, and genuine scarcity. Dave adds that regional cities may also present better value within Peter’s budget.

    And our gold nuggets!.....

    Cate Bakos's gold nugget: Buyers need to understand and apply land-to-asset ratio to every purchase.

    David Johnston's gold nugget: "I would prefer people get into the market sooner rather than later if they have an appropriate budget, especially given the market we're in with rates falling, the deposit scheme just increasing, prices rising already. And as I touched on, I expect prices to rise at a faster rate in 2026."

    Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/09/22/listener-questions-september/
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    36 m
  • #327: Market Update August 2025 – Second Wind for Brisbane, Adelaide & Perth, Listings Stay Tight & Rents Fuel Inflation Concerns
    Sep 15 2025
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    In this latest market update episode, the Trio unpack the findings in the August data, and they reflect on the cash rate cut and how 2025's third cash rate cut has impacted the early spring market.

    🏡 The Property Trio: Market Movers, Segmentation & City Standouts It's interesting to see the perennial performers of 2023 and 2024—Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth are still delivering. Brisbane’s 1.2% monthly growth even pipped Darwin's (1.1%), while Perth clocked 1.1% and Adelaide added 0.9%. Darwin continues to lead the nation on an annualised basis, but the Trio ask: how much longer can these hot markets run? Cate weighs in on Melbourne, where official growth numbers appear soft compared with the strong buyer competition she’s experiencing on the ground. She attributes this to segmentation, noting that upgraders—often emotionally driven and recently boosted by interest rate cuts—are pushing the middle of the market hardest. Mike backs this up with data: the 50th percentile is outperforming both the bottom and top quartiles.

    The Trio also highlight that national growth is broadly positive, with every capital except Hobart showing gains over the last three months. Melbourne may be lagging on paper, but it’s just 3% shy of its 2022 peak—a sign of resilience and potential upside. Dave contrasts quartile data across cities, noting that in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, the lowest quartile is leading, suggesting investors and latecomers may be driving the final leg of this cycle.

    🏡 The Property Trio: Spring Stock, Footy Fever & Market Sentiment Spring has arrived, but for property watchers, it doesn’t quite feel like the floodgates have opened yet. Cate reminds listeners that we’re only in early September—and for Melbourne, (and much of Victoria), the property market doesn’t hit full stride until after the AFL season finishes. In a city where everything stops for footy, October is traditionally when listing volumes surge.

    📈 Agents are reporting stronger appraisal activity and plenty of auction dates locked in, but stock levels remain tight.

    🤔 This supply/demand imbalance creates a tricky chicken-and-egg scenario. Vendors don’t want to list until they’ve secured their next home, but in a rising market, especially with rare or fussy briefs, hesitation can stall the cycle. Dave and Mike weigh in on the balancing act sellers face between locking in strong results and avoiding homelessness.

    📊 Mike brings the data lens to national listings. Darwin and Brisbane are showing sharp annual contractions in stock, aligning with their recent strong performances. Meanwhile, Melbourne and Hobart are down year-on-year, possibly reflecting weaker sentiment and more cautious vendors. Dave stresses the importance of comparing numbers to five-year averages, reminding listeners that spring always swells supply, but buyer demand doesn’t fluctuate nearly as much.

    🌏 The Trio then tackle a puzzling consumer sentiment report: despite an interest rate cut sparking buyer activity on the ground, confidence in the economy has dropped. Global conflict and local unrest may be weighing on Australians’ psyche, even while house price expectations remain firm. This lively episode blends property insights with cultural context, giving listeners a glimpse of spring 2025’s early signs, the quirks of timing around footy season, and the broader forces shaping confidence in our markets.

    Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/09/15/ep-327-august-2025-market-update/
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    59 m