The Pick-and-Shovel Winners Are Still Winning

Hosted by Joe Krauss and Assistant Research Analyst, Jacob Johnson. Markets are fragmenting fast: while software stocks slide into a full‑blown bear market, pick‑and‑shovel AI infrastructure names, from semiconductors to power and optical networking, are quietly carrying the upside. Earnings leadership is broadening beyond mega‑cap tech, making the market more resilient, but pressure is building from a flattening yield curve, stressed private credit, and rising geopolitical risk. Everything now hinges on the Strait of Hormuz, because a real de‑escalation could unlock a powerful relief rally, while prolonged conflict could keep oil, yields, and volatility locked in a dangerous feedback loop.