The NDP collapse killed Poilievre's PM hopes

Boomer Turnout, Betting Markets, and a Liberal Path to Victory

On the Ledge – April 24, 2025

Host: Dave Trafford
Guests: Kathleen Wynne, John Wright, Keith Leslie, Amanda Galbraith (filling in for Tim Hudak)

In this edition of On the Ledge, Dave Trafford and the panel dig into the final days of the federal campaign. With polling margins narrowing, the conversation pivots to the strategic implications of the NDP collapse, the Conservatives’ stalled momentum, and whether Mark Carney’s Liberals can secure a fourth term.

Amanda Galbraith delivers sharp insight on why the NDP’s decline may have done more to harm Pierre Poilievre’s chances than help.

The panel also critiques political ad strategies, speculates on shifting voter coalitions, and debates whether the electorate is still moved by messages of hope or just fed up.

In provincial politics, the crew discusses subway procurement, sole-sourcing, and the Ford government's growing tensions with school boards.

Key Takeaways:

• Polling Plateau: Despite breathless media reports, the polls remain largely unchanged; regional shifts are minimal and final telephone-based polls may provide clearer trends (John Wright).
• NDP's Collapse: Amanda Galbraith argues the NDP's self-inflicted decline undermines the Conservatives' vote-splitting advantage and may cost Poilievre a path to power.
• Ad Wars and Missed Messages: The panel criticizes a Conservative ad targeting older male voters, suggesting it misses the emotional connection needed in a campaign’s final stretch.
• Boomer vs. Youth Turnout: Young conservative-leaning men may stay home, while reliable boomer voters help buoy Liberal support.
• Online Betting Markets: Unofficial political betting lines show rising odds for a Liberal majority — a surprising twist not yet echoed in public polling.
• Transit and Tariffs: Ford’s proposal to sole-source subway cars in Thunder Bay sparks debate over cost control and trade protectionism.
• School Board Frustration: The panel anticipates a public appetite for stronger oversight and accountability in Ontario’s school boards amid financial controversies.