My deepest forecasting belief is that you can better understand the future if you focus on the behaviors that never change instead of the events that might.

And those behaviors have a common denominator: They follow the path of least resistance of people trying to simplify a complex world into a few stories that make sense and make them feel good about themselves.

Simple stories, feel-good stories. Those are some of history’s most seductive beliefs, and they always will be.

Here are a few that stick out.

The most productive work you can do often looks like the laziest -- but it can be hard to accept that because of how the workplace has changed over the last 100 years.

Every great idea can be taken too far.

Take the notion that investors should ignore the short run.

It's important to recognize that the long run is just a collection of short runs, and capturing long-term growth means managing the short run effectively enough to ensure you can stick around for a long time.

I wrote letters to both of my kids the day before they were born.

Here's what I wanted them to know about money.

And even if you don't have, or want, kids, I think you'll find this helpful.

Hacks are hard because shortcuts rarely exist. Prizes take time and effort.

The personal finance industry – filled with advice that sounds and feels good without moving the needle – needs to recognize this.

These aren’t fun hacks, but no one said this was easy.

Luck plays such a big role in the world. But few people want to talk about it. If I say you got lucky, I look jealous. If I tell myself that I got lucky, I feel diminished.

Maybe a better way to frame luck is by asking: what isn’t repeatable?

And maybe better yet: The way to get luckier is to find what’s repeatable.

The fun part of behavioral finance is learning about how flawed other people can be. The hard part is trying to figure out how flawed you are, and what stories make sense to you but would seem crazy to others.

A few of the best and most insightful things I've read lately.