Episodios

  • Frameworks To Trade The Hormuz Crisis

    Frameworks To Trade The Hormuz Crisis
    Apr 10 2026
    To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com Alf and Brent are back discussing frameworks to approach this market as a short-term oriented trader or as a long-term focused macro investor.
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    33 m
  • How To Trade Macro In A War

    How To Trade Macro In A War
    Mar 20 2026
    Alf and Brent reflect on correlations converging to 1 across asset classes, risk management practices in macro deleveraging events, and a game theory approach to how the war could unfold from here.
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    33 m
  • Hormuz & The Terms of Trade Shock

    Hormuz & The Terms of Trade Shock
    Mar 6 2026
    Alf and Brent discuss the terms of trade shock that the de-facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing. The duo walk through scenarios and probabilities and what framework can be used to trade such a market environment,
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    37 m
  • The New Fed vs The Good Old Bond Market

    The New Fed vs The Good Old Bond Market
    Jan 30 2026
    To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how the appointment of the new Fed Chair could shape the US policy making objective in the bond market. The repercussions on the USD and on the incentive schemes for other large bond market players (e.g. Japanese investors) are not to be underestimated.
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    37 m
  • US Dollar Hedging: A Real Risk or Just a Narrative?

    US Dollar Hedging: A Real Risk or Just a Narrative?
    Jan 23 2026
    To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In this episode, Alf and Brent reflect on the April-2025-like price action which coincided with the tariff threats. Now that the TACO is here, the real question is: will this episode encourage global pension funds to hedge their gigantic USD exposure?
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    37 m
  • Japanese Macro Tails

    Japanese Macro Tails
    Jan 16 2026
    To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In this episode, Alf and Brent focus the discussion on Japanese short-term and long-term macro: is the MoF ready to intervene? How do you trade these policymaker-induced setups? And in the long-run, will the market keep punishing the JPY and long-end bonds or will the Bank of Japan turn hawkish and surprise the market?
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    37 m
  • The Everything SuperCycle?

    The Everything SuperCycle?
    Jan 9 2026
    To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In the first TMTF episode of 2026, Alf and Brent discuss every single macro asset class under the sun: equities, bonds, currencies and commodities. The duo also talks about the reaction function of the Fed, and a few idiosyncratic ideas.
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    38 m
  • More Pain Ahead Or Buy The Dip?

    More Pain Ahead Or Buy The Dip?
    Nov 23 2025
    The Nasdaq has now sold off nearly 10% from the highs, and the pain in momentum assets is even more severe. Alf and Brent discuss whether there are reasons to believe more pain lies ahead, or this is the time to step in and buy the dip.
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    30 m