Episodios

  • Is the Trump administration successfully renegotiating global trade?

    Is the Trump administration successfully renegotiating global trade?
    Jul 28 2025
    Darius breaks down the strategic implications of the Trump administration’s bilateral trade breakthroughs with the EU and Japan, and previews the critical third round of U.S.–China negotiations. He addresses a timely client question on the risks of a rising 10-year yield amid rate cuts and outlines how 42 Macro’s institutional-grade KISS and Dr. Mo frameworks are engineered to keep investors on the right side of market risk in this evolving Fourth Turning regime.
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    14 m
  • How will the “President Trump vs. Powell Fed” saga play out?

    How will the “President Trump vs. Powell Fed” saga play out?
    Jul 25 2025
    In today’s Macro Minute, Darius breaks down the accelerating Trump vs. Powell feud and what it means for markets, monetary policy, and your portfolio. As political pressure on the Fed intensifies, investors must grapple with the rising probability of asymmetric rate cuts and structural yield curve control. With the S&P 500 flashing crowding risk and the Fourth Turning backdrop growing more chaotic, Darius explains why monetary debasement assets and institutional-grade overlays—like KISS and Dr. Mo—are no longer optional. This episode outlines how to stay invested through regime change without getting whipsawed by volatility.
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    12 m
  • How is the global economy faring amid US trade policy uncertainty and the Trump tariff shock?

    How is the global economy faring amid US trade policy uncertainty and the Trump tariff shock?
    Jul 24 2025
    In this episode of the Macro Minute, Darius Dale breaks down why July’s global PMI data reinforces 42 Macro’s bullish thesis. He explains how upside surprises in growth, resilient labor markets, and deregulation tailwinds continue to support Paradigm C—even as tariffs re-enter the narrative. Plus, Darius addresses whether markets are underpricing short-term volatility from failed trade talks and Fed hesitation. This is a must-listen for investors navigating policy noise and positioning for durable upside.
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    9 m
  • Are markets adequately pricing in regime change at the Fed, part III?

    Are markets adequately pricing in regime change at the Fed, part III?
    Jul 22 2025
    In today’s Macro Minute, Darius tackles the ongoing question: Are markets adequately pricing in regime change at the Fed? He breaks down intensifying political pressure on Jerome Powell, the growing likelihood of an ultra-dovish successor, and what that means for the dollar, bonds, and risk assets. Darius also explains why traditional 60/40 portfolios are increasingly obsolete in this Fourth Turning environment—and how 42 Macro’s KISS model is designed to thrive. We close with a client Q&A on whether tariffs are truly inflationary and how long their effects linger in CPI data.
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    10 m
  • How is Q2 earning season shaping up thus far? What is the key risk of Japan’s LDP losing its seven-decade stranglehold on Japanese parliament?

    How is Q2 earning season shaping up thus far? What is the key risk of Japan’s LDP losing its seven-decade stranglehold on Japanese parliament?
    Jul 21 2025
    In today’s Macro Minute, Darius Dale breaks down a strong start to Q2 earnings season and unpacks why 42 Macro still expects the Fed to cut rates despite resilient headline data. He explains how Trump-era immigration policy is artificially suppressing unemployment while labor income growth deteriorates—clear signs of a weakening labor market beneath the surface. Darius also touches on rising trade risks from Japan and reminds investors that while we remain in Paradigm C, the road to Paradigm D—Fed financing fiscal dominance—is rapidly approaching.
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    10 m
  • Are markets adequately pricing in regime change at the Fed?

    Are markets adequately pricing in regime change at the Fed?
    Jul 16 2025
    Darius breaks down the Fed regime shift taking shape as Trump insiders float ultra-dovish replacements for Powell. He explains how this fuels right-tail risk for assets and downside for the dollar. Plus, clients weigh in on custom KISS portfolios—showing how 42 Macro’s signals help tailor risk with precision.
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    11 m
  • Are tariffs showing up in the inflation data?

    Are tariffs showing up in the inflation data?
    Jul 15 2025
    Tariffs are starting to show up in CPI, while inflation remains sticky—just as 42 Macro forecasted. Darius unpacks the latest data, explains why no upside surprises means limited market risk, and highlights how clients are using KISS flexibly within disciplined, systematic guardrails.
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    9 m
  • Is Bitcoin’s US-policy-driven breakout to a fresh all-time high supported by global liquidity dynamics?

    Is Bitcoin’s US-policy-driven breakout to a fresh all-time high supported by global liquidity dynamics?
    Jul 14 2025
    Bitcoin breaks to new highs, but is the rally built to last? Darius Dale explores the policy-driven surge in crypto, a fresh wave of global liquidity from China, and the deepening stress in global bond markets. Learn why structural volatility is rising—and why KISS remains your best defense (and offense) in this new era of fiscal dominance.
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    10 m