A seed-stage fund gets 10 markups… and a YC company hits a 4.5x in 9 months.

That’s the vibe heading into 2026. Speed is up, liquidity is thawing, and AI is compressing timelines across YC and the broader venture market.

In this episode of The Lobster Talks, we recap Lobster Capital’s breakout 2025, unpack why seed → Series A is getting cut in half, and lay out the sharpest 2026 prediction: the liquidity cycle is coming back… via IPOs, M&A, secondaries, and “creative” acquihires. We also dig into the counter-trend: as AI floods everything, founders are building real-world, tangible products that pull people off screens… Powered by AI, Not anti-AI.

What you’ll learn in this episode:

• Why seed → Series A is moving from 18–24 months to ~9 months in top YC companies
• How a YC-backed company can go 0 → $10M ARR in ~14 months and keep growing 40% MoM
• Why DPI + liquidity is the only KPI LPs ultimately care about
• The new playbook: VC + PE strategies converging as AI makes roll-ups and efficiency leaps inevitable
• The “opposite reaction” to AI: hardware + real-life communities powered by AI agents
• What’s showing up in Winter 2026: robotics, hardware, and a surprising wave of space tech

📌 Watch now and subscribe for more smart, fast, founder-first interviews.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction and Cold Open

00:46 Welcome to The Lobster Talks

01:16 Recap of 2025 Achievements

02:19 Series A Success and Future Predictions

07:50 The Importance of Liquidity in VC

09:35 AI's Transformational Impact

18:58 The Role of YC and Future Outlook

21:45 AI Note Taker: A Physical Product in 2026

22:36 Digital Detox: Reconnecting with the Real World

23:59 Lobster Capital's Portfolio: RealRoots and Sunflower

28:15 The Rise of Robotics and Space Tech in 2026

31:39 YC's Moonshot Investments and Future Prospects

34:27 Reflections on YC's Evolution and Success

37:40 Upcoming YC Demo Day and New Group Partners

39:21 Conclusion and Future Episodes

🎧 Listen on the go:

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1u1JyRKH8JYFjhBkvTUOAP

Apple: https://apple.co/4cZ8RMm

My other YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@lobstercap

Everyone’s chasing shiny AI agents. Tanner Jones is quietly using AI to tear out 25% of a state’s rule book, and got Virginia to require his product by law.

This episode goes inside Vulcan Technology, a YC startup using AI to map every law and regulation in America, undercut Deloitte and McKinsey, and turn a $4T regulatory burden into a trillion-dollar software market. We talk about Virginia’s $24K cheaper homes, destroying the Big Four with code, how to actually sell into government, and why most “AI for gov” plays are doomed from day one.

You’ll learn:

• How Vulcan uses AI to analyze entire regulatory codes and show what can’t change, what can change, and what must change.
• The Virginia case study: how building code streamlining translated into ~$24,000 less per new home without touching safety.
• Why both red and blue states are leaning into AI for regulation, and how YC founders are navigating the politics.
• What investors get wrong about govtech, ARR, and how to value AI consultancies selling into the state.
• How Tanner sold to a state government 10 days after incorporation and then raised one of the biggest seeds of his YC batch.
• What’s overhyped in AI infra, what’s inevitable, and how to avoid building a “solution in search of a problem” in govtech.

📌 Watch now and subscribe for more smart, fast, founder-first interviews.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction: The Challenges of Government Contracts

00:51 Sponsorship Message from Stable

01:51 Introducing Tanner Jones and Vulcan Technology

02:33 The Vision: AI in Government Consulting

06:20 Case Study: Virginia's Regulatory Overhaul

12:26 Bipartisan Appeal of AI Solutions

17:34 Behind the Scenes at Y Combinator

22:28 Navigating Government Sales and Investor Relations

24:51 Scientific Innovation and Emergence of New Companies

25:15 Palantir and Anduril's Impact on Intelligence Agencies

25:37 Targeting Regulatory Agencies and Market Size

26:10 Challenges and Opportunities in Government Contracts

27:37 Passion for Government Reform

28:25 Investor Interest in Govtech and AI

29:30 Challenges for Govtech Startups

32:26 Understanding Government Incentives

34:06 Metrics for Success in Govtech

42:31 Future of AI in Government

46:09 Final Thoughts and Contact Information

🎧 Listen on the go:

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1u1JyRKH8JYFjhBkvTUOAP

Apple: https://apple.co/4cZ8RMm

My other YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@lobstercap

This podcast episode is sponsored by Stable. Click here to sign up for a virtual address:

https://dashboard.usestable.com/onboard/begin?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=influencer_lobster&promoCode=lobster50

Most people think GPS is “good enough”, until you realize 90% of human and object movement happens where GPS doesn’t work at all. Warehouses, hospitals, tunnels, battlefields… completely blind spots.

In this episode of Lobster Talks, Raymond Lee (Twill, YC) sits down with John Ferrara, solo founder of Juxta (YC S25), who’s building a Universal Positioning System... a no-hardware GPS alternative that works indoors, underground, and anywhere humans or machines move.

We break down the tech, the wedge into logistics and defense, and how he raised $5M at a $40M cap in ~48 hours as a 21-year-old solo founder straight out of YC.

You’ll learn:

- Why 90% of location data on Earth is currently invisible — and why that’s such a big deal.

- How Juxta uses IMUs, 3D simulations, and “synthetic fingerprinting” to localize devices without satellites or beacons.

- Real use cases across logistics, warehouses, defense, and hospitals — and why these buyers are leaning in.

- How deeptech founders should think about tech risk vs market risk when pitching VCs.

- What it’s like to go through YC S25 as a solo founder, and why so many deeptech founders end up solo.

- The inside story on raising a fast, oversubscribed round from CRV, PG, SV Angel, Liquid 2, and more.

📌 Watch now and subscribe for more smart, fast, founder-first interviews.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to GPS-Denied Spaces

00:44 Sponsor Message: Stable

01:45 Welcome to Lobster Talks Podcast

02:10 Meet Jonathan Ferrara from Juxta

03:39 Understanding Juxta's Technology

08:50 Applications and Use Cases of Juxta

10:34 Onboarding Process for Juxta

15:37 Competitors and Market Landscape

25:27 Deep Tech and Solo Founders in YC

34:47 Solo Founders and the Victim Complex

35:15 The YC Experience and Going Solo

37:18 Support Systems and Coping Mechanisms

40:23 Raising Funds as a Solo Founder

44:25 Choosing the Right Investors

56:17 Vision for the Future

59:05 Conclusion and Contact Information

🎧 Listen on the go:

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1u1JyRKH8JYFjhBkvTUOAP

Apple: https://apple.co/4cZ8RMm

My other YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@lobstercap

This podcast episode is sponsored by Stable. Click here to sign up for a virtual address:

https://dashboard.usestable.com/onboard/begin?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=influencer_lobster&promoCode=lobster50