The Fed, the Grid, and the Consumer: What’s Powering 2026 So Far?

A steady but complicated start to 2026: inflation isn’t flaring, retail spending held up, and the Beige Book nudged higher while jobless claims stayed low. With a January interest rate cut likely off the table, markets are eyeing mid‑year moves, as the Fed navigates political noise and confidence in credit remains high—even as spreads sit near cycle tights. We dig into what that mix means for positioning right now, then tackle the power story—AI‑driven demand, a pricier generation mix, and grid bottlenecks—why electricity costs likely stay elevated and how it can ripple through portfolios.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

Michael Bove, Senior Equity Research Analyst

01:34 – CPI inflation steady, retail sales rebound, Beige Book edges higher, and jobless claims stay historically low.

05:13 – Inflation’s “catch up” effects, a K shaped consumer, and why headline labor reads can look stronger than they feel.

08:14 – No January rate cut; markets lean toward two cuts starting mid-year as political noise clouds the Fed backdrop.

11:21 – Credit spreads at/near tights: confidence vs. complacency and how a single default could ripple through high yield.

14:16 – Electricity prices rise amid AI driven demand, a costlier generation mix, and multiyear interconnection backlogs—no short-term fix.

17:10 – Closing notes, MLK Jr. Day reminder, and where to find ongoing insights and guidance.

Additional Resources

Read: Key Questions: What Do Investors and Consumers Need to Know About Rapidly Rising Electricity Prices?

Key Questions

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