The Elephant in the Brain, Ems & LLMs with Robin Hanson

In this wide-ranging conversation, Ariel interviews economist Robin Hanson about the hidden motives that drive human behavior, the central theme of his book The Elephant in the Brain. Hanson argues that much of what we do is not for the reasons we consciously believe, but rather for signaling our value as allies, mates, and group members. Our conscious mind acts as a "press secretary," creating socially acceptable narratives for our actions, while the real, often selfish, motives remain hidden. Hanson illustrates this thesis with examples from medicine, charity, and art, contending that our actions in these domains are better explained by a desire to signal care, loyalty, and status than by the stated goals of health, altruism, or aesthetic appreciation.

The conversation then shifts to the implications of this theory and the rise of Artificial Intelligence. Hanson suggests that while individuals can only make modest changes to their ingrained behaviors, society can foster more rationality by creating institutions like prediction markets. They discuss the implications of AI on human value creation and the future of work in an AI-driven economy. Hanson places the latest AI technology within the overall context of AI booms and busts, and revisits his analysis from The Age of Em. Hanson is less worried about AI risk than many, but appreciates modern AI as a powerful research tool for integrating knowledge across disciplines. They discuss the potential influence of AI on art and culture, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of artistic expression.

Guest: Robin Hanson, economist at George Mason University, author of The Age of Em and co-author of The Elephant in the Brain, and writer at the blog Overcoming Bias.

Timestamps

00:00 Understanding Motivations: The Drive to Explore

04:06 The Elephant in the Brain: Unpacking Hidden Motivations

07:43 Controversial Insights: Medicine and Health

15:14 Signaling and Status: The Social Dynamics of Behavior

24:30 Behavior Beyond Signaling: Exploring Basic Drives

28:29 The Role of Constants in Human Behavior

29:33 Signaling in Art and Consumption

30:58 Uniqueness and Social Preferences

34:11 Distal vs. Proximate Explanations of Behavior

36:30 The Nature of Helping Behavior

37:16 Effective Altruism and Individual Behavior

38:54 Understanding Human Behavior and Policy

41:25 Individual Change vs. Societal Change

43:00 Institutions and Rational Decision-Making

45:31 Betting Markets and Prediction Accuracy

49:09 AI's Impact on Human Value and Signaling

52:38 The Future of Work in an AI-Driven Economy

55:34 The Human-Like Evolution of AI

58:23 The Near View vs. Far View of AI

59:52 Investment Cycles in AI Development

01:01:46 Paths to Artificial Intelligence: Ems vs. LLMs

01:02:41 The Challenge of Regulating AI Development

01:05:25 Knowledge Spread and Its Risks

01:07:46 The Future of AI and Personal Investment

01:09:29 AI as a Tool for Integration and Discovery

01:14:05 The Impact of AI on Art and Culture