In this episode of The Dialectic, Fair Observer’s Founder, CEO & Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and FOI Senior Partner Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer who now advises companies, governments and institutions on geopolitical risk, examine France’s deepening crisis and ask whether the Fifth Republic can survive it. The discussion opens with the immediate breakdown: five prime ministers in two years, Sébastien Lecornu’s 26-day stint, resignation and reappointment, a parliament unable to pass a budget for 2026 and a 6% budget deficit that pushed France into the EU’s most worrying fiscal category. Importantly, Moody’s cut France’s outlook to negative as bond markets grow wary.

Atul and Glenn trace the crisis to long running structural patterns. They map the historical arc from King Louis XIV and his finance minister Jean-Baptiste Colbert to Charles de Gaulle and the birth of the Fifth Republic, showing how a tradition of centralised state power pushes France into recurring crises. With the government controlling nearly 60% of the GDP, dirigisme — the French version of a centrally directed economy, which is quite like socialism — struggles to create a modern, dynamic economy.

To add salt to injury, French socialism is inefficient and its society is elitist. The Swedish government spends less than its French counterpart and achieves better outcomes. Unlike Sweden, France’s elite educational institutions are dominated by students from the country’s upper middle classes with very few from the working classes making it to the top. Unfortunately, France spends heavily on social services but struggles with social mobility, persistent unemployment and a talent drain. Immigrants now account for roughly 17% of the population, and rapid urban ghettoization has produced social tension, Islamic radicalization and helped the rise of the far right. France’s domestic troubles come at a time of great shifts in the international order. A resurgent Russia, a more assertive China and an unpredictable America limit France’s room for strategic autonomy. French domestic woes weaken Europe, which is looking for leadership at a time of profound geopolitical shifts. The political paralysis in Paris has also hobbled the Franco-German axis, which has been the bedrock of the EU. The episode balances realistic pessimism with cautious optimism. For all its woes, France retains nuclear deterrence, advanced defense industries, a vibrant luxury sector and deep human capital. Atul and Glenn outline policy pathways for reform and sketch scenarios in which France could experience a renaissance. Listen to this episode of The Dialectic for a clear, historically informed assessment of France at a pivotal moment.

In this episode of The Dialectic, Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and FOI Senior Partner Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer who now advises companies, governments and organizations on geopolitical risk, turn their attention to Germany and ask a fundamental question: What has gone wrong with the engine of Europe?

The conversation begins with Nazi Germany’s total defeat in 1945 and the country’s partition into East and West Germany. Under the American security umbrella, West Germany rebuilt itself through an export-led economic model that came to define postwar Europe. The fall of the Berlin Wall and reunification of the two Germanies brought both triumph and strain.

Atul and Glenn explore how Germany’s success story has stalled. The German economy is now struggling, its population is shrinking, its workforce is aging, and its dependence on Chinese markets and Russian energy has become a strategic weakness. German bureaucracy has become infamous, and excessive regulation is inhibiting economic activity. The country’s famed automobile industry is losing ground to Chinese electric vehicles, German innovation capacity has waned and the country is missing in the fast-growing high-tech sectors of the global economy. Meanwhile, rising immigration has caused social division and political polarization. Support for the far-right party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), is surging and it is now beating traditional parties in opinion polls. Clearly, Germany is in crisis.

Atul and Glenn place Germany’s crisis within a wider European story. They consider how demographic decline, economic fatigue and strategic hesitation are eroding Europe’s global influence. Germany is the EU’s economic engine. It is the heart of Europe that looks both west and east. This episode of The Dialectic asks whether Germany can renew itself in an age of global competition or whether its decline mirrors the broader malaise of Europe itself. Read About Vladimir Putin's Long Game - https://www.fairobserver.com/politics/making-sense-of-vladimir-putins-long-game/ Read About Germany's Economy - https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/is-the-german-economy-now-destined-to-decline/

In this episode of The Dialectic, Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and retired CIA officer and Senior Partner at FOI Glenn Carle explore a provocative question: Can Germany and France make Europe great again? The discussion traces Europe’s transformation from the fall of Constantinople in 1453 through the Renaissance, the Reformation and the Enlightenment. These movements gave birth to modern science, capitalism and democracy, allowing Europe to dominate the world for nearly 500 years. The duo then explores the collapse of that dominance through world wars, decolonization and the rise of American hegemony, before turning to Europe’s postwar recovery through the European Union, the Eurozone and Franco-German cooperation.

Today, Europe faces new tests: demographic decline, mass immigration, economic stagnation and political fragmentation. The hosts debate whether France’s centralizing vision and Germany’s federal model can ever align, and whether the European Union can act as a coherent global power in an era shaped by the United States, China and Russia.

Combining history, geopolitics and philosophical inquiry, this episode of The Dialectic examines whether Europe’s story is one of revival or irreversible decline.

In this episode of The Dialectic, Fair Observer Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and Senior FOI Partner Glenn Carle (a reputed retired CIA officer) dissect US President Donald Trump’s dismantling of the federal government and its far-reaching implications. They examine Trump’s removal of key officials, including the governor of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Lisa Cook, the director of Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the commissioner of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). They note that the Trump White House is gutting federal agencies such as the Fed, the CDC, the IRS, the State Department, the CIA, USAID and NASA. Glenn traces Trump’s actions to decades of conservative thought. Ronald Reagan’s revolution and think tanks like the Heritage Foundation have added rocket fuel to American conservativism. Both Atul and Glenn focus on the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, a radical blueprint calling for a 50% cut in the federal workforce and sweeping presidential powers. Glenn argues that the roots of the Trumpian revolution lie in the ideas of Carl Schmitt who was Hitler’s legal theorist. His doctrine of the unitary executive undermines checks and balances in favor of near-absolute authority of the executive, fuelling the fervor of Trumpists.

Atul and Glenn warn of a future where liberal democracy erodes into a conservative autocracy. They point out that many immigrants support Trump because of cultural conservatism and disdain for bureaucracy. Listen to this episode to make sense of our volatile, complex, ambiguous and complex (VUCA) world)!

In this episode of The Dialectic, Fair Observer’s Founder, CEO and Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and retired CIA officer and FOI Senior Partner Glenn Carle talk about the history of the Iranian empire, the emergence of modern Islamic Iran under the Safavids, the instability that followed, the British domination of this proud nation and the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Atul and Glenn examine the ideological, religious and geopolitical imperatives driving Iran. They discuss the 1953 coup and the role of MI6 and CIA, as well as the emergence of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1979. They discuss the Iran-Iraq War that followed, the Shia-Sunni divide and more. They end the podcast examining current developments such as the Israel-Iran military clashes and the US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities as well as drawing up scenarios of what comes next.

In this episode of The Dialectic, Fair Observer’s Founder, CEO and Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and retired CIA Officer Glenn Carle dive into the latest terrorist attack in Kashmir and the resulting escalation between India and Pakistan. They explore the deep historical roots of the conflict, the strategic calculus of both nations, and the dangerous interplay between religion, nationalism, and domestic politics. With terrorism once again destabilizing the region, they ask: Can cooler heads prevail, or is a larger conflict looming?

In this episode of The Dialectic, Fair Observer’s Founder, CEO and Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and retired CIA Officer Glenn Carle dive into why US President Donald Trump is targeting Harvard and what that reveals about deeper ideological rifts in America. From culture wars to claims of antisemitism, the rise of woke culture to the dangerous logic behind the “unitary executive,” the conversation tackles the forces threatening American democracy. Harvard becomes a stand-in for the liberal elite, globalization and the institutions conservatives believe have left them behind. With humor, historical insight and first-hand experience, the hosts explore how today’s political battles echo those of revolutionary France — and what’s at stake if the elite temples of thought fall.

President Donald Trump’s return to power has alarmed many countries around the world. It is important to remember that Trump the individual represents two deep and persistent trends in American politics: isolationism and nativism.

Remember that after World War I, the US jettisoned the League of Nations, which was President Woodrow Wilson’s idea. Even after World War II, influential figures championed Fortress America. Senator Joseph McCarthy was one of them. Trump’s America First policies draw upon this tradition.

Over the last decade, the Republican Party has increasingly moved toward isolationism, breaking from its post-World War II tradition. Under Trump, the party has abandoned its interventionist stance, embracing skepticism toward international alliances and multilateral agreements.

Trump’s approach in implementing this isolationist foreign policy complicates matters further. He often appears reactive and impulsive, driven by personal grievances rather than strategic interests. Trump often allows personal relationships with leaders to overshadow the presence or absence of shared strategic goals. This unpredictability undermines trust and weakens alliances.

Isolationist policies also limit the US’s ability to address global challenges like climate change, terrorism and economic instability. An abdication from global leadership invites other nations like China to step up to the plate, threatening US security and interests.

To craft a more effective foreign policy in the future, the US must find a balance between its desire for national autonomy and the realities of an interconnected world. This necessitates a shift from adversarial and binary thinking to the difficult but ultimately more beneficial approach of multilateralism.

[Peter Choi edited this podcast and wrote the first draft of this piece.]