The US labor market is no longer running hot — but it isn't freezing up, either. In this episode of The Decisive, S&P Global Market Intelligence economist Juan Turcios unpacks what a "softening" labor market really looks like in late 2025 and into 2026, and why the headline numbers don't tell the whole story.

We dig into the sharp slowdown in payroll growth since the post-pandemic boom, the steady rise in the unemployment rate from its 2023 cyclical low, and the increasing concentration of job gains in a handful of sectors — especially healthcare. Juan also explores what's happening beneath the surface: a cooling appetite to hire, fewer workers quitting, and companies trying to get more output from the employees they already have.

Our economist also examines the supply-side forces reshaping the workforce, including slower labor force growth tied to immigration policy shifts and the longer-run drag from an aging population — trends that are changing participation rates and influencing where jobs are being created.

Finally, we look ahead to what this means for productivity, real wages, and the broader US growth outlook, while addressing a critical wild card: growing concerns about the reliability of monthly labor data as survey response rates decline.

Listen now to gain insights that could impact your business decisions and strategy.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Global Economic Outlook: February 2026
• Picture This: Escalating Marine and Aviation Risks in the Middle East
• Click here to subscribe to our Geopolitical and Economic Risk Monthly newsletter.

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Global Executive Summary: Choppy markets, resilient economies
• US GDP tracking
• 2026: The age of agility

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guest: Juan Turcios
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

A wave of landmark elections across Japan, Thailand, and Bangladesh is reshaping the political map of Asia—and creating new signals for investors, multinationals, and supply-chain decision-makers. In this episode, we break down what the results mean for regional security, economic strategy, and the business operating environment over the next 12–24 months.

We start in Japan, where Prime Minister Sanai Takaichi's LDP delivers a sweeping lower-house win, strengthening policy stability while enabling more ambitious moves on defense spending, industrial policy, and potential constitutional change. The discussion explores how Tokyo's deeper alignment with the US on security could influence corporate risk planning, advanced manufacturing, and strategic technology investment.

Next, we turn to Thailand, where Anutin Charnvirakul's Bhumjaithai Party emerges as the dominant force and is positioned to lead a coalition government. We examine the implications for border tensions with Cambodia, the role of the military and establishment politics, and how continued cost-of-living measures, debt relief, regulatory simplification, and public-private partnerships could reshape opportunities for SMEs, retailers, and large infrastructure players.

Finally, in Bangladesh, a decisive BNP win and a reform agenda centered on deregulation and digitization raise questions about implementation capacity, investor confidence, and the direction of foreign policy. We close with what this could mean for key sectors including garments, energy, and pharmaceuticals, and how political dynamics with the opposition may affect the pace of reform.

Listen now to learn how these geopolitical developments could impact your business.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Geopolitical Risk Brief: February 2026
• Age of Agility: Key Themes Shaping APAC in 2026
• Click here to subscribe to our Geopolitical and Economic Risk Monthly newsletter.

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Japan's political outlook
• 2026: The age of agility

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guests: Jeffery McElroy, Aiman Othman, Smrithi Premjeet
• Produced By: Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In this episode of The Decisive, Ken Wattret, Vice President of Global Economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, assesses the global macroeconomic landscape, highlighting that the world economy is proving more resilient than markets might suggest, even as volatility remains elevated.

Ken unpacks how geopolitical flashpoints and trade-policy uncertainty are rippling through financial and commodity markets—often with sharper price action than real-economy fallout so far—while underscoring that further disruptions, higher tariffs, or supply shocks could still dent global growth.

The latest Purchasing Managers' Index data, which indicate continued expansion across manufacturing and services—supporting a constructive baseline for 2026—while highlighting key downside risks: asset-price corrections, rising sovereign yields, escalating trade frictions, and softening labor-market conditions that could undermine growth if volatility intensifies.

Listen now for a thought-provoking discussion of the factors at play in the global economic outlook.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Top 10 Economic Insights 2026
• Global Economic Outlook: February 2026
• The Age of Agility: Key Themes for 2026

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Global Executive Summary: Choppy markets, resilient economies
• Policy rate prospects
• Inflation indications

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guest: Ken Wattret
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun