Software default rates could hit double digits as AI disruption spreads and loans come due, according to Bain Capital. “We’re going to see real stress,” said Angelo Rufino, the firm’s head of special situations in North America and corporate special situations in Europe. “We will see a full credit cycle as the reckoning really comes to resize capital structures to the earnings power of these business models,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s David Havens in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. They also discuss investment-grade private credit, data center debt and asset-based finance, including the rise of music-royalty deals.

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Systematic credit investing has room to expand into leveraged loans, structured finance and emerging markets, according to Acadian Asset Management. “You could take an issuer approach to do security selection in the leveraged loan market,” Scott Richardson, the $178 billion firm’s director of systematic credit tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Sam Geier in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “That could be extended to structured things that sit on top of that, CLOs and the like,” says Richardson, referring to collateralized loan obligations. They also discuss alternative data, private credit and how to build a portfolio “without giving a liver and a kidney to Goldman Sachs along the way.”

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Mortgage-backed securities look attractive even after government purchases snapped spreads tighter, according to Clark Capital Management. “I don’t think the trade is completely over yet because corporates are even tighter,” Oliver Chambers, head of fixed income for the firm’s separately managed accounts, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Erica Adelberg in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “You can go in and clip a 4.5% coupon and have potential for some price appreciation if rates do come down,” says Chambers. They also discuss technology debt risk, the market impact of new leadership at the Federal Reserve and what the central bank would do if there’s a big selloff.

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Technology companies flooding debt markets are just getting started on funding a $4 trillion artificial intelligence boom, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. “This is the tip of the iceberg,” Robert Schiffman, BI’s senior tech credit analyst, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie in this special episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “A lot will depend on at what pace industries are embracing AI technologies,” adds Anurag Rana, a senior BI equity analyst who also covers the sector. BI expects AI capital expenditure to exceed $4 trillion in the US through the end of 2030. The trio also discuss the impact of surging bond issuance on credit spreads, the appeal of very long-dated debt in a sector susceptible to disruption and the biggest risks for this year.

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Corporate loans signed when rates were low are increasingly hitting a wall as they come due, according to H.I.G Bayside. “There’s a level of discount in these stressed credits that we haven’t seen for a number of years,” Jackson Craig, who co-heads the credit-focused arm of H.I.G. Capital, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tim Riminton in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “The dislocations that are occurring and the discounts that original lenders are willing to take to shed troubled assets has grown,” says Craig, who focuses on distressed debt. They also discuss private credit defaults, trouble in the chemicals sector, forced selling by collateralized loan obligations and how liability management is adding pressure.

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Investors underestimate the hazards in private debt, according to Pacific Investment Management Co. “There’s a lot of additional credit risk that people are often taking in some of these private situations that you kind of turn a blind eye to,” Christian Stracke, the $2.3 trillion asset manager’s president, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “There is a fairly large overhang of problem loans that were made in years earlier this decade that will take years to burn through,” he adds. They also discuss deteriorating debt underwriting standards in the technology sector, Europe’s big defense investment opportunity and the “sell America” trade.

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Pressure on highly-indebted companies will intensify as interest rates remain elevated, according to Seix Investment Advisors. “We have a lot of credit zombies — B3/B minus or CCC rated credits — that still have very weak interest coverage, generating zero free cash flow,” George Goudelias, chief investment officer of the firm’s leveraged finance platform, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Jean-Yves Coupin in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “There are mine fields to avoid in this market,” he adds. They also discuss the impact of private credit on public leveraged finance, why Seix is bearish on technology and how rising “sell America” sentiment could affect corporate debt.

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Despite all the negative headlines around private credit, Neuberger Berman says direct loans pay a lot more than traded debt and barely make a loss. “We pretty consistently see a 200 basis point differential,” Susan Kasser, the gobal investment management firm’s head of private debt, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s David Havens in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “Our annualized loss rates are one basis point,” she adds. They also discuss how artificial intelligence helps to pinpoint investment opportunities and why private markets will probably continue to get bad press.

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