In this episode, Mark and Howard explore why forecasting is so often wrong and what prediction really requires. From homicides to the stock market, prediction sounds simple until the future fights back. Statistics and logic can take you far, but judgement, context, and humility do the rest.

In this episode of The Collators, Mark and Howard explore the promises and pitfalls of virtual reality. Not as a gaming gimmick, but as a tool for intelligence, analysis, and decision-making.

From Minority Report-style data walls to simple post-it notes, they ask whether VR and data visualisation actually help us see the world more clearly, or just distract us with prettier illusions.

Transcript, shownotes and more are available from https://thecollators.com/s1e7

From Tandy Radioshack to nuclear submarines, this episode traces an extraordinary journey through the intersections of technology, curiosity, and courage.

Mark and Howard talk with Mike Hawkes, a technologist, inventor, and pioneer of secure digital systems whose career began in fixing computers in a local store and ended up influencing the security architecture behind global online transactions that we all use.

This is a very human story, with ebbs and flows of good and bad. Innovation, hard work and opportunity, but also cybercrime, litigation and loss.

Shownotes, transcript and more at https://thecollators.com

In this episode of The Collators, Mark and Howard dig into the firehose of the digital age. From
the days of cereal-box reading and limited TV channels to today's infinite scroll of TikTok,
Twitter, and AI-generated content, how has the internet reshaped the way we process and
perhaps fail to really think about the information we receive.

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From crime scenes to classrooms, boardrooms to briefing papers, the tension between numbers and narratives runs through every profession that tries to make sense of the world.

Mark and Howard ask whether everything that counts can, in fact, be counted. What happens when we mistake measurement for meaning? Why do humans crave certainty even when the evidence is uncertain? And how do analysts, scientists, and policymakers balance data with judgement?

Shownotes, transcript and more available from https://thecollators.com

In this special episode of The Collators, Mark and Howard speak with Carmen Medina, former Deputy Director of Intelligence at the CIA and one of the most respected reformers in modern intelligence analysis.

Carmen's career spanned three decades at the heart of U.S. intelligence, leading analytic teams through the end of the Cold War, the information revolution, and the challenges of a world where secrets collide with the open internet.

Together, they explore:

- What it means to think critically inside large institutions.
- How bias and diversity of thought shape intelligence work.
- The tension between secrecy, sharing, and truth.
- Why categorisation, curiosity, and dissent are vital to good analysis.
- The impact of AI and automation on human judgement.

Reflective, candid, and often funny, Carmen's insights reveal the reality of analysis as both craft and calling, and a human attempt to make sense of the world.

Transcript and more at https://thecollators.com

Musical spreadsheets, a string of car thefts, and a chance observation spark a question at the heart of this episode: what exactly is a pattern, and how do we recognise one?

Mark and Howard explore Florence Nightingale's statistical diagrams to modern AI pattern recognition, exploring how humans find meaning in data and how sometimes, meaning finds us. They discuss the risks of seeing structure where none exists, the value of curiosity, and why luck and lateral thinking still matter in an age of algorithms.

Shownotes and more available from https://thecollators.com