The United States and Israel have launched strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggering a full-scale war in the Middle East. As the region descends into conflict, a fascinating debate has emerged about what this means for China: from the surge in Chinese defense stocks and weapons export opportunities, to the collapse of Beijing's landmark Saudi-Iran diplomatic agreement.

Is this a strategic disaster for China, or does the chaos actually create unexpected openings?

Andrea Ghiselli, research director at The ChinaMed Project and a lecturer in international politics at the University of Exeter, joins Eric to discuss the stark differences in how this conflict is discussed in China and in the Global West.

📌 Topics Covered in this Episode:

• The US-Israel strikes on Iran and the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei
• Why Chinese defense stocks surged to a 10-year high on the Shanghai Stock Exchange
• The "ally" myth: why China was never going to militarily defend Iran
• The collapse of China's landmark Saudi-Iran diplomatic détente
• Asymmetric warfare — why Iran's cheap drones may outlast America's expensive missiles
• China's energy security: oil stockpiling strategy and Strait of Hormuz exposure
• US munitions depletion and what it means for a potential Taiwan scenario
• What to watch in Chinese discourse if the Islamic Republic faces collapse

Show Notes:

• The ChinaMed Project: How Chinese Experts are Reacting to the American-Israeli Strikes on Iran by Andrea Ghiselli: https://tinyurl.com/mr439hdp
• The China-Global South Project: "Win or Lose, America Loses": Chinese Analyst Says Trump's Iran Gamble Will Hand Beijing a Strategic Victory by Han Zhen: https://tinyurl.com/484p6bbn
• The China-Global South Project: Chinese Nationalist Voices Dismissed Online After Iran Strike Defies Predictions by Han Zhen: https://tinyurl.com/bdenrfyd

People to Follow Reference in this Episode:

• @GeringTuvia, analyst at Planet Nine, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub
• @EvanFeigenbaum, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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The Panamanian government formally took over the two ports operated by Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison this week at both ends of the Panama Canal. U.S. officials celebrated the move as part of their larger effort to expel China from the Western Hemisphere.

Washington has now set its sights on the Chinese-owned Chancay mega port in Peru.

But given the extent of Chinese engagement in Latin America, most notably the fact that the region does more than half-a-trillion dollars of trade annually with China, is it even possible for the U.S. to expel the Chinese?

Pedro Armada, a Panama City-based risk consultant who closely follows the U.S.-China rivalry in Latin America, joins Eric to discuss what happens next following the expulsion of CK Hutchison from the canal zone and what it means for the rest of Latin America.

📌 Topics covered in this episode:

• Panama's takeover of Chinese-operated ports
• U.S. pressure on Peru's Chinese-built Chancay port
• Trump's Western Hemisphere strategy toward China
• Narrative battles and misinformation in Latin America
• Trade ties that make decoupling from China difficult
• Whether Beijing is waiting out U.S. political cycles

Show Notes:

• The China-Global South Project: The Paradox of Panama's "Rule of Law": Hutchison Ports vs. Minera Panama by Pedro Armada: https://tinyurl.com/4vcta4tw
• The China-Global South Project: Panama and the New U.S. Strategy to Counter China in Latin America by Pedro Armada: https://tinyurl.com/msspbmbw

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Shenzhen-based Transsion Holdings is now a massive Chinese technology company that few people outside of Africa and certain parts of Asia have heard of. Even in China, the brand, now the world's 5th-largest mobile phone producer, remains largely unknown.

Transsion gained notoriety after it entered the African market in 2006. Back then, the world's largest phone brands all but ignored African consumers, selling low-end, late-model devices designed primarily for Western and Asian consumers.

The Chinese company saw an opportunity and tweaked the software on its phones to optimize photos for darker skin tones, and added a suite of features like dual SIM cards, dustproofing, and longer battery life to sell sub-$100 phones to Africa's booming youth market. That formula worked, and the company's three brands, Tecno, Infinix, and iTel, have dominated the market for more than a decade.

But little is known about how Transsion achieved its success in Africa. Lu Miao, an assistant professor at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, joins Eric & Cobus to lay out the company's strategy and why it was so effective in a market that others largely ignored.

Purchase the book: The Transsion Approach: Translating Chinese Mobile Technology in Africa by Lu Miao: https://a.co/d/04AKaajZ

📌 Topics covered in this episode:

• Why rural-first strategy beat Silicon Valley-style scaling
• How African distributors helped shape product design and marketing
• The importance of dual SIM cards, long battery life, and localized features
• The role of Carlcare repair centers in building long-term loyalty
• The shift from feature phones to smartphones and rising competition
• Growing patent lawsuits and the next phase of AI-driven competition

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The United States and China are pursuing sharply different strategies in a region that is no longer best understood as the "Middle East," but as part of a broader Asian-centered geopolitical system historically described as "West Asia."

This vast region stretches from countries along the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean, all the way to the Eastern Mediterranean. While the U.S. remains the undisputed military hegemon in this theater, China is steadily becoming the indispensable economic power, providing access to vast pools of capital, new technology, and expanding trade.

Mohammed Soliman, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and a director at the geopolitical advisory firm McLarty Associates, joins Eric from Washington, D.C., to discuss his new book that explores how the U.S., China, and other powers are adapting to this new expanded view of the Middle East known as "West Asia."

Purchase the book: West Asia: A New American Grand Strategy in the Middle East by Mohammed Soliman

📌 Topics covered in this episode:

• Why the Middle East is increasingly being reframed as West Asia
• China's quiet diplomatic outreach to Israel and the Palestinians
• Surging Chinese trade and bank lending in the Gulf
• The Asianization of Gulf economies through trade, energy, and demographics
• Whether China will translate economic power into military presence
• America's role as a resident security power with 50000 troops in the region
• Why U.S. grand strategy may require doing more with less in West Asia
• The India Middle East Europe Corridor and connectivity as instruments of power
• AI compute infrastructure and the Gulf's post-oil transformation
• Israel's evolving role in regional security architecture
• How great power competition is reshaping alliances and coalitions
• Whether values or interests will define the next phase of U.S. engagement

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When the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) was launched in 2019, a big part of its mandate from Congress was to counter China's Belt and Road Initiative. That sentiment was a key theme on Capitol Hill late last year during the DFC's Congressional reauthorization, when lawmakers from both parties made urgent appeals for the agency to do more to challenge China in the Global South.

Congress nearly tripled the DRC's budget from $60 billion to $205 billion to be used over the next five years. While that is a substantial increase, it's just a small fraction of what Chinese entities spend each year on BRI projects.

Karthik Sankaran and Dan Ford, researchers at the Quincy Institute in Washington, D.C., join Eric to discuss why they contend it's a bad idea for the DFC to compete head-on with China, rather than focus on its original mandate to build market capacity in poorer nations.

📌 Topics covered in this episode:

• The expanded mandate and six-year reauthorization of the US Development Finance Corporation
• Why countering China now drives US development finance strategy
• How the DFC compares with China's Belt and Road Initiative
• The limits of development finance as a tool of great power competition
• Critical minerals energy, and supply chains as DFC priorities
• The Lobito Corridor and overlapping US-China interests
• Why Global South countries resist choosing sides
• How the DFC could compete more effectively by focusing on development

Show Notes:

• Responsible Statecraft: US capital investments for something other than beating China by Karthik Sankaran and Dan Ford

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There's been a lot of discussion in recent years about the financial health of China's Belt and Road Initiative. Critics contend the BRI became overstretched, bankrupting borrowers and straining creditors suffering from a weakening Chinese economy.

Even the Chinese government sought to reframe the BRI with its "small yet beautiful" tagline to reflect a new era of purported austerity.

And while all of that was certainly true when it comes to state-backed Chinese entities that used to be at the forefront of the BRI, new data from Griffith University in Australia and the Green Finance and Development Center at Fudan University reveals that Chinese private enterprises are now leading the way.

Christoph Nedopil, director of the Griffith Asia Institute, joins Eric to review the 2025 BRI data and explain what led to a record year of BRI engagement around the world.

📌 Topics covered in this episode:

• China's Belt and Road investment surge in 2025
• Why the BRI narrative of decline no longer holds
• Africa's return as a top destination for Chinese investment
• The rise of fossil fuel projects alongside green energy
• How geopolitics and US trade policy shape BRI decisions
• The growing role of Chinese private companies overseas
• What the latest BRI data signals for the years ahead

Show Notes:

• Green Finance and Development Center: China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment Report 2025
• Financial Times: Beijing pours cash into Belt and Road financing in global resources grab by Edward White
• The Economist: China's Belt and Road Initiative is booming again

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As debate intensifies over the unraveling of the U.S.-led international order, sparked by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's stark remarks at Davos, small states are being forced to rethink how they survive and advance in an increasingly fragmented global system.

Carney captured the anxiety shared by many global leaders when he bluntly declared that the U.S.-led international order is over.

In this episode of the China Global South Podcast, Eric is joined by Sagar Prasai, an independent advisor to international development agencies, and Mandakini D. Surie, an independent development consultant with over two decades of experience across governments, NGOs, and think tanks. The discussion draws on their recent report examining how small states in South Asia are navigating a rapidly emerging multipolar world shaped in part by China's expanding role.

Building on their research, Prasai and Surie unpack the strategic calculations unfolding across Asia—dynamics that closely mirror the pressures facing smaller and developing countries across the Global South as they adapt to a shifting balance of power.

📌 Topics covered in this episode:

• Decline of the U.S.-led international order
• Small states' strategies in a multipolar world
• China's growing influence in South Asia
• Hedging, alignment, and strategic autonomy
• Lessons for the wider Global South

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Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth