As the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran escalates following the February 28 strikes, former U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper joined A'ndre for a quick chat to assess how the conflict is unfolding and what may come next. Esper discusses how President Donald Trump and his national security team may be evaluating the campaign, the strategic objectives behind the strikes on Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure, and what success might realistically look like for Washington and its partners.

The conversation also examines the sustainability of the U.S.–Israeli air campaign, the role of munitions production and drone warfare, and how the United States can manage escalation as Iran retaliates across the region. Esper weighs in on the strategic implications of leadership decapitation following the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the widening geographic scope of the conflict, including the U.S. strike on an Iranian vessel near Sri Lanka. He concludes with his assessment of how the conflict could end — and what advice he would give the president at this critical moment.

In this episode of The Burn Bag, A’ndre Gonawela sits down with former NSC Senior Director Javed Ali to unpack the rapidly escalating crisis between the United States, Israel, and Iran following the February 28 strikes that reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the ongoing exchanges of fire.

They examine how Tehran is likely interpreting the strikes, why this moment differs from past U.S.–Iran flare-ups, and what Iran’s retaliation ladder could look like across missiles, proxies, maritime disruption, and asymmetric tools. The conversation also explores the risks of regional spillover, why Iran is hitting the Gulf states, the leadership shock inside Iran, and whether any credible off-ramp still exists.

With tensions rising across the Gulf and no clear endgame in sight, this episode breaks down what policymakers, businesses, and observers should be watching next.

Read Javed's piece in the conversation here.

Iran is at a critical juncture as it faces a wave of nationwide protests driven by economic strain, political frustration, and societal exhaustion. In this episode of The Burn Bag, A'ndre Gonawela is joined by Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, to explore the internal fractures within Iran's regime and the potential for change.

As tensions between Washington and Tehran escalate, the risk of military confrontation looms large. Alex Vatanka provides an in-depth analysis of the regime's response to the protests, including internet shutdowns, mass arrests, and the use of force. He discusses the implications of these actions on regime stability and the risks of further escalation both within Iran and across the region. The conversation delves into the generational divide, the regime's ideological rigidity, and the potential for military defections.

Listeners will gain insights into the complex dynamics at play, including the role of the Iranian military, the influence of foreign powers, and the potential for regime change. This episode is essential for anyone interested in understanding the current crisis in Iran and its implications for the Middle East.

Follow Alex Vatanka on X @AlexVatanka and explore more of his insightful analysis on his MEI page.