No one was really asking about Melania’s ties to Epstein. But after her surprise White House statement to the press on Thursday, the questions are flowing—particularly because a former Brazilian model who moved in both Trump and Epstein circles is posting threats against the First Lady on social media. Tim and Jane break it all down. Plus, Melania does not speak or read English very well, Trump is furious about Tucker & co.’s opposition to the Iran war, Vance’s motives for converting to Catholicism are disgusting and unchristian, and why would Iran permit Saudi-paid Jared to participate in the Islamabad peace talks? Jane Coaston joins Tim Miller for the weekend pod.

Jane Coaston joins Tim Miller for the holiday weekend pod.

show notes

• JVL and Catherine LIVE on the not-so-great economic news
• Tim's deep dive on Oscar Romero was in this episode
• Tix on sale soon for The Bulwark LIVE in San Diego on May 20 and in Los Angeles on May 21
• Follow "Bulwark Takes" for breaking news over the weekend
• Tim's playlist
  
  

Putin puppet Viktor Orbán—whose nepotistic and corrupt government in Hungary has become the model for the far-right in America and Europe—is facing his first serious election challenge in 16 years. It turns out that voters get mad when a president steals from the public and tanks the economy. Vance tried to bolster Orbán with Kremlin-esque fake propaganda, but the energy may be with the grassroots campaign of Peter Magyar. Plus, Vance's arrogance and ignorance about Ukraine, Trump is still coming up short on his Iran war goals, the administration made some weird threats against Pope Leo, and Kari Lake is still a loser.

Anne Applebaum joins Tim Miller.

show notes

• Anne's piece on Hungary, "The First Post-Reality Political Campaign"
• Thursday's "Morning Shots"
• Giselle Donnelly's Bulwark piece on how Trump's war is impacting global navigation
• Anne's book, "Twilight of Democracy"
• Anne's "Autocracy, Inc." in paperback
• Anne's book recommendation, "Furious Minds: The Making of the Maga New Right"
• Letters from Leo on Substack
  
  

Trump showed that he is completely unequipped to be a war leader. He threatened crimes against humanity, and not only let a foe prove it could take our punches, but also inflict economic pain on the global economy as well. Indeed, with the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran looks to have emerged from the war with a stronger hand. We also don't know how much Trump's financial ties to Gulf countries are influencing his wild and erratic handling of the war. And if this military operation was just about Israel's national security, then that should have been explained to the American people from the start. Plus, the threat an Orbán loss would pose to MAGA, the key redistricting election in Virginia, and how Dems would prioritize oversight if they win back the House.

David French and Rep. Suhas Subramanyam join Tim Miller.

show notes

• TNL live last night after Trump folded
• Wednesday's "Morning Shots"
• Tim's debate over the war with Rep. Josh Gottheimer
• Tix on sale soon for The Bulwark LIVE in San Diego on May 20 and in Los Angeles on May 21
  
  

AI poses real existential threats. The global economy is dependent on it, it's being deployed in war zones and used for domestic surveillance, and it's increasingly integrated into our medical and financial sectors. But the guy sitting atop the world's biggest AI company, Sam Altman, is regarded by some colleagues as a liar, driven by a quest for power, and someone with sociopathic tendencies. When Biden was in the White House, Altman was worried about the limited regulation of AI; under Trump, he's loving that the shackles have come off. Plus, Tim on how the Dems need to get the politics of the Iran war right: Welcome converts into the fold, and prioritize American interests.

Ronan Farrow and Andrew Marantz join Tim Miller to discuss their New Yorker piece on OpenAI’s Sam Altman.

show notes

• TNL is LIVE tonight at 7:45 ET on Substack and YouTube
• Ronan's and Andrew's story in The New Yorker
• Tim's interview with Karen Hao on the unchecked rise of Altman
• For their buy 1 get 1 50% off deal, head to 3DayBlinds.com/THEBULWARK
  

In threatening to bomb Iran to smithereens, Trump seems to be motivated by a combination of frustration, vengeance, and wanting to look like a tough guy. But he also has a God complex. Destroying the country's bridges and its entire energy infrastructure has nothing to do with nukes—and everything to do with war crimes. Plus, the soldiers and airmen who carried out the daring rescue mission over the weekend hail from the "woke and weak" era of the U.S. military, Trump should be impeached, his family has ties with military contracts involved in the war effort, and there are rumors of at least one SCOTUS retirement this year.

Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller.

show notes:

• Monday's "Morning Shots"
• Lauren on the Democrats feeling electoral hopium
• The UK's Andrew Neil on the power of the Strait of Hormuz v the Bomb

The pro-Iran war hawks keep crowing about how U.S. military prowess is supposedly striking fear in Beijing and Moscow. But what’s really happening is that Trump is doing exactly what China and Russia hoped he’d do. Beijing has wanted the U.S. out of the Western Pacific and Putin, of course, wants NATO wrecked. Our major allies are scrambling to form new economic and military relationships, and America is likely to be very lonely in the world with only a few stooges to count as friends. This is what ending our role as a global superpower would look like. Plus, the U.S. is unable to win the war at a cost that is acceptable to Americans, Trump is taking a cue from Putin by bombing civilian infrastructure, and blaming NATO for not being willing to fight for the Strait of Hormuz is absurd when the world’s most powerful navy doesn't seem to want to do it either.

Bob Kagan joins Tim Miller for the holiday weekend pod.

show notes

• Bob's recent piece in The Atlantic
• Tim's bimbofied livestream
• "Foreign Policy" piece on South Korea that Bob referenced
• Follow "Bulwark Takes" for breaking news over the weekend
• Tim's playlist

Trump fired Pam Bondi, maybe the most destructive AG in the history of the United States, because she wasn't able to magically and lawlessly jail his political enemies. On Wednesday night, he told Americans that gas prices would naturally go down when he was finished with his war—much like the way he told the country in March 2020 that COVID would just go away. In reality, China may end up in control of the Strait of Hormuz and with freight passage paid with the Chinese Yuan. America and the world are paying for the incompetent (and petrified) advisers Trump has surrounded himself with. Plus, POTUS threatened war crimes on national television, the Iranian diaspora bet on the wrong horse, and who will be the next Barbie to get the ax?

Susan Glasser joins Tim Miller.

show notes:

• Susan's column on Trump's Wednesday address
• Susan on Trump breaking up with NATO

The war-induced global oil shock is already pushing consumers and businesses to new pain points because of higher fuel prices. Airlines are cutting back routes and ticket prices have started to spike. Expect road trips to be canceled, lifestyles to change, and more people to work from home. Trump is trying to deflect blame onto Iran and NATO, but the world will focus its rage on him and his war of choice. Plus, stagflation may be in the offing, tariffs made people poorer, both Kristi and her husband have unnatural ideas about what the body can do, and Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti is taking on one of the most corrupt inside-traders in Congress.

Paige Cognetti and Josh Barro join Tim Miller.

show notes

• The Bulwark LIVE tonight after Trump’s address at 9 ET: YouTube or Substack
• Tim's livestream Thursday at 8 ET
• Josh's Substack
• Cognetti's campaign website
• Josh's "Serious Trouble" pod
• "Central Air" podcast
• Scranton's "The Office" 5K on May 2