The Australian Venture Playbook for 2026

Episode Summary

As 2026 kicks off, Cheryl and Maxine open the year with their annual First Cheque wrap, a grounded, opinionated take on what actually shifted in Australian tech and venture, and what that means for the year ahead.

They break down why 2025 marked a genuine inflection point for the ecosystem, from Canva’s secondary and a surge in M&A to fresh signals that long-awaited liquidity is finally starting to flow. Despite minimal government support, Australia quietly proved itself as one of the most capital-efficient venture markets globally, producing unicorns at roughly twice the rate of the US per dollar invested.

The conversation also tackles the harder truths investors and founders need to reckon with in 2026: early-stage funding compressing while late stage heats up, corporate venture capital retreating, and the gender funding gap sliding backwards. Looking forward, Cheryl and Maxine share their predictions for the year ahead, where funding volumes may land, why seed remains the toughest stage, how AI valuations could trigger a market correction, and why energy and infrastructure may emerge as the next premium asset class.

Time Stamps

00:00 – Intro: End of year energy: why 2025 felt different to 2024

03:55 – Election fallout and the government’s “nothingburger” for startups

05:24 – Canva’s secondary and the first real signs of liquidity returning

09:49 – Aussie tech M&A heats up: Canva, Linktree, Jolt, and more

12:09 – The stat that changed the narrative: Australia’s unicorn efficiency

16:14 – The weirdest trend of the year: early stage down, late stage up

18:27 – Tech jobs, data centers, and the infrastructure bet Australia is making

22:52 – Why deep tech and climate are pulling venture dollars again

28:21 – The gender funding gap got worse (and why)

33:09 – Corporate VC is pulling out: what happened to strategic capital

37:02 – 2026 predictions: funding totals, seed pain, and where capital flows next

44:00 – AI bubble risk: tourism, ROI pressure, and the domino effect

47:42 – Hot take: electricity is the next valuation premium

49:00 – Will diversity bounce back in 2026? (vibes, but also logic)

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