Would you take a pay cut for the career you want? Would you even take two? And what if the world's default position is actually chaos? How do we make decisions then? Arjun Raghavan is CEO of Partners Capital, making million-dollar decisions every day. He took some big decisions to get himself on the career path he wanted and to achieve his ambitions. Find out how he makes his choices in the last episode before our summer or winter break (depending on the hemisphere you're in!).

00:00 – The Asymmetry of Outcomes

Raghavan introduces his decision-making philosophy: optionality, assessing upside vs. downside, and treating choices like investment bets.

02:10 – From Engineering to Consulting

Early career pivots from engineering to Andersen Consulting (now Accenture), and eventually, an MBA at INSEAD.

04:50 – A 60% Pay Cut and Ostrich Farms

A bold detour into nonprofit consulting in Namibia through Accenture Development Partnerships, with key lessons on timing and impact.

08:15 – The Leap into Finance

Joining a small hedge fund led by ex-Goldman Sachs professionals, learning the hard truths of investment careers, and taking a second massive pay cut.

11:30 – Finding the Right Fit at Partners Capital

Discovering a multifaceted, client-facing, global investing role at Partners Capital that aligned with his love for variety and challenge.

14:20 – Managing Billions Amid Global Chaos

Reflecting on how Partners Capital operates with $60–65 billion AUM across 8 global offices—navigating geopolitical, economic, and market volatility.

17:00 – Annie Duke and Decision-Making Philosophy

Drawing from Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke to stress separating decision quality from outcomes; investing is a long-term, probability-based game.

20:15 – Human Behaviour, Loss Aversion, and Clients

How emotional utility shapes investment decisions, and why sometimes logic alone doesn’t serve client needs.

23:00 – Barack Obama and Sleeping Well

Quoting Obama on making the best decision with available data and learning to sleep peacefully with uncertainty.

References

• Annie Duke – Thinking in Bets: A guide to probabilistic thinking and decision-making in uncertainty.
• Hans Rosling – Factfulness: A data-based antidote to fear and pessimism.
• David McWilliams (economist): Featured in earlier episodes discussing how markets discipline populists.
• Barack Obama (on decision-making): Knowing you made the best call with the information available brings peace of mind.
• "Where Are the Customers’ Yachts?" by Fred Schwed Jr.: A classic critique of Wall Street’s appearance vs. reality.

Discover more about Bruce Whitfield here - https://www.brucewhitfield.com/

The Art of Deciding is produced by Podcart - https://www.podcart.co.uk/

Series Producer: Jayne Morgan

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How do you steer one of the world's most prestigious business schools through a global pandemic? What is a "leadership script"? And what happens when Bruce is introduced to "success squared"? François Ortalo Magné was Dean of the London Business School between 2017 and 2024. He successfully led the organisation through COVID's near catastrophic consequences. He has some very clear advice about how he makes decisions, how to tap into 'good luck', how to take the future into account ... and how to take your teams with you whatever decisions you make.

Key Takeouts

• Use a Leadership Script: Anchor decisions in your organisation's purpose and personal values. Francois drew on institutional strategy from LBS and principles developed during his tenure at the Wisconsin School of Business.
• Don’t Default to Binary Choices: The “third alternative” method echoes practices seen in systems thinking and decision design.
• Transparency Builds Trust: Rather than parroting "safety first," Francois and his team communicated a nuanced dual priority—resonating with an academically sophisticated audience.
• Empower the Collective: The LBS community embraced a shared mission that echoed ideas of collective action and organisational behaviour common in management literature.
• Simplify to Persuade: Referencing research on persuasion, Francois underscores the need to distil complex arguments into a few strong points.
• Tune Your Radar to Opportunity: Citing psychological research into luck, Francois explains how openness to possibility enables us to see and seize opportunity

• Francois’s decision framework (01:11–03:00)
• Research, multiple perspectives, mental models, and the use of a “leadership script.”
• Admissions Dilemma During COVID (03:01–04:30)
• Faced with major income loss, would LBS lower standards to admit more students?
• Defining Priorities: Safe and Open (04:31–06:20)
• Why Francois rejected the simplicity of “safety first” and instead embraced honest tension.
• Community-Driven Trade-Offs (06:21–08:00)
• How clarity in messaging inspired collective responsibility across the school.
• Fast Thinking, Structured Governance (08:01–09:50)
• Creating task forces with focused remits, and leveraging contrasting personalities for balance.
• The Power of Thinking Twice (09:51–12:00)
• Inspired by a meeting with the C-suite of a Fortune Global 500 company; reinforces the value of stepping back and asking again.
• Learning from a Personal Property Miss (12:01–14:20)
• A story about London housing and the anticipated impact of the Jubilee Line expansion—an example of economic foresight.
• Bending the Curve of the Future (14:21–16:00)
• Long-term investments in teaching spaces and faculty capabilities paid off unexpectedly when remote teaching became necessary.
• Think in 3D, Speak in 2D (16:01–18:10)
• Wisdom from an LBS Governor on visualizing institutional complexity and simplifying messaging.

References:

• Francois Ortalo-Magné: Economist and academic, former Dean of London Business School and Wisconsin School of Business.
• London Business School (LBS): One of the world’s premier institutions for business education.

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Can one word change your life? Bruce thinks so. In this solo episode he unpacks a deceptively simple but transformative idea. Drawing from personal insight, academic influence, and examples from previous episodes, Bruce challenges listeners to step away from the comfort of binary choices and embrace the complexity of the real world.

Key Takeaways

• "And" vs. "But":
• The word “but” often shuts down possibilities. Replacing it with “and” fosters openness, creativity, and more constructive dialogue.
• The Binary Trap:
• We instinctively seek simplicity — growth or security, tradition or innovation — but this limits our ability to navigate real-world complexity.
• Embracing Complexity:
• Success in today’s world belongs to those who can hold opposing truths, navigate ambiguity, and resist the pressure to simplify.
• The Unreasonable Advantage:
• Progress is driven by those willing to defy convention. As George Bernard Shaw said, "All progress depends on the unreasonable man."
• Examples in Action:
• Companies like Patagonia, LEGO, and Tony’s Chocolonely show that it’s possible to be profitable and purposeful, legacy-honouring and innovative.
• Decision-Making in Practice:
• Real-world decisions don’t follow linear logic. Leaders must think more like jazz musicians — adaptive, improvisational, and collaborative.

Notable Quotes

"Every time you want to use the word 'but', use 'and' instead."

— Professor Chris Dalton (as quoted by Bruce)

"Comfort isn’t a metric of a good decision. Discomfort is often required."

— Bruce Whitfield

"The real world isn’t an either/or world. It’s messy. It’s uncertain. It’s full of conflicting data, competing priorities, and impossible expectations. It is the world of 'and'."

— Bruce Whitfield

"All progress depends on the unreasonable man."

— George Bernard Shaw (quoted by Bruce)

References & Mentions

• Chris Dalton – Henley Business School professor whose advice on conjunctions inspired this episode’s theme.
• George Bernard Shaw – Quoted for his insight on the nature of progress and unreasonableness.
• Past Guests Referenced:
• Lord Karan Bilimoria – On serendipity and seeing differently.
• Noula Walsh – On pausing before action.
• Lee Child – On betting on oneself and the cost of timidity.
• Companies & Examples:
• Patagonia – Profitable and fighting climate change.
• Tony’s Chocolonely – Expanding and ethical.
• LEGO – Rooted in tradition and digitally transforming.

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