Tariffs, Trade Policy, and Looking Ahead: Is the Rules-Based Trading System Breaking Down?

Episode 84 is here — and yes, 84 is the atomic number of polonium, 1984 is Orwellian, and Van Halen absolutely peaked. You’re welcome.

We’re joined again by friend of the pod Dmitry Grozoubinski, Executive Director of the Geneva Trade Platform and author of Why Politicians Lie About Trade. And we ask the big question:

👉 Has the global trading system fundamentally changed — or are we just living through noisy turbulence?

We break down:

• Why Rob’s 2025 prediction that “everything will look mostly the same” is… under pressure

• Whether tariff chaos has permanently destroyed predictability

• Why certainty matters more than tariff levels

• The EU–Mercosur deal and what it really signals

• The weakening of Most Favoured Nation (MFN) treatment

• Why customs, sanctions, and rules of origin are about to get much more complicated

• And Dmitry’s predictions for 2026 (spoiler: more tariff threats, fewer illusions)

Is this the end of the rules-based system? Or just a new phase where national security openly trumps trade orthodoxy?

Also: airplanes turning around because of toilets. Again.

Listen responsibly.