Americans are deeply divided, passions are running high, and many fear the Republic is failing. But is any of this actually new? In our recent ClubGPF live discussion, GPF Chairman George Friedman revisited his book The Storm Before the Calm to explain where we are in America's recurring 80-year institutional cycle. Drawing parallels to the Revolution, the Civil War, and the Great Depression, George shows that the current crisis is the least threatening of the four great institutional upheavals in American history.

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Following the 2026 Munich Security Conference, the transatlantic alliance appears to be at a crossroads. With the Russian threat failing to manifest and the U.S. shifting its strategic focus, is the "divorce" between these old allies inevitable, or is it a necessary evolution?

In this episode of Talking Geopolitics, host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman to examine why the U.S. views European reliance as exploitation rather than obligation, and to explore whether Europe can finally overcome its fragmented history to build a unified defense capability.

Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion, and to access our full 2026 Forecast: Re-anchoring the World.

At January's World Economic Forum in Davos, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney argued that the old world order is not coming back. He went on to say that we are now in an era of great power rivalry, and that middle powers, like Canada, should come together to counter the rise of great powers. So what could the new order look like, and just how much influence can middle powers wield compared to the U.S. and China? They may be smaller by GDP standards but they are not without importance geopolitically.

In this episode of Talking Geopolitics, host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman to discuss it all, to examine why the U.S. and Canada can't just decouple from one another, and what will happen to Cuba now that it has reached a tipping point in its economy and its defense. Visit www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion and to access our full 2026 Forecast: Re-anchoring the World.