Over three years after her first appearance (Episode 18), Kim Bryan returns to the Talent Intelligence Collective podcast to discuss her evolution from leading a global TI team of 120 at its peak to launching AMS's Research Lab. In this wide-ranging conversation, Kim shares insights from analysing around 400,000 hiring records spanning just under 100 countries from 2020 to 2025 and reveals what's really driving offer declines (spoiler: it's not always about money).

What We Cover

AI & Employment - Examining Stanford's "Canaries in the Coal Mine" study and why the "AI is replacing entry-level workers" narrative might be correlation, not causation. The real impact on software development and customer support roles, and why businesses still don't understand where to apply AI effectively.

ONS Labour Force Survey Crisis - UK response rates dropped from under 50% in 2016 to around 20% now, whilst the US maintains 68%. Critical national decisions are being made on inadequate data due to funding and skills mismatches.

Evolution of TI at AMS - How talent intelligence moved from "add-on service" to embedded across all client work. The shift to self-service models, introduction of Insights and Intelligence Partners, and the ongoing data literacy challenge.

Offer Declines Research - Key findings: 15% increase in time-to-hire when offers are declined. Compensation wasn't the dominant reason—personal factors, hiring process issues, and flexibility matter more than expected. Sales roles showed highest volatility; project management roles surprisingly volatile due to change management demand. The critical finding: recruiter-candidate relationships matter more than process automation.

Education Revolution - Oxford research showing AI sector prioritises skills over formal education. Why universities haven't fundamentally changed since post-Industrial Revolution, and the return of apprenticeships and practical training.

Key Quote

"Despite all of the tech advances and all of the different strategies you can apply, the biggest difference that you can make to your process is still through your people. Post-offer engagement can be the difference between an offer being accepted and being declined."

Practical Tips for TA Leaders

1. Give Yourself Creative Space - Stop firefighting long enough to actually plan ahead

2. Invest in Your People - Find time to develop your team, not just extract from them

3. Find Something Outside Work - Your professional performance depends on your personal wellbeing

Coming from AMS Research Lab

• The Great Flattening (declining management layers)

• Skills mismatch: Are universities preparing students for tomorrow's jobs? (publishing soon)

• Stores to supply chains: How holiday hiring is changing

• EU Pay Transparency Directive analysis

• Industry deep dives and labour market overviews

• Comprehensive TA metrics benchmarking (2026)

About Kim Bryan

Kim Bryan is the Global Head of Research at AMS, where she leads their Research Lab think tank. She's been with AMS for nearly 10 years in this stint (and worked there previously too, making it nearly two decades total). She previously looked after talent intelligence for AMS and managed a global team of 120 at its peak. Her varied career spans insurance and a mix of numbers and people work, making her ideally suited to the intelligence and insights space.

Resources Mentioned

• AMS Research Lab Report: "Offer Declines and Dropouts"

• Stanford Digital Economy Lab: "Canaries in the Coal Mine: Six Facts About the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence"

• Beyond the Buzz Report on AI Skills

• Oxford Internet Institute & University of Oxford: Research on AI sector prioritising skills over formal education

• Office for National Statistics Labour Force Survey

As ever - big thanks to our sponsors: ⁠⁠⁠https://lightcast.io⁠⁠⁠

Welcome to Episode 40 of the Talent Intelligence Collective podcast! In this episode, Alan Walker, Alison Ettridge, and Toby Culshaw welcome Jen Allen Jardine, the self-proclaimed "SWP supergeek" and founder of Beyond the Eightball consultancy, who's currently bringing her strategic workforce planning expertise to HS2 after seven years of asking the uncomfortable questions that organisations need to hear.

The episode opens with Toby analysing the results of the Talent Intelligence Collective's One and Done Challenge, revealing how AI-generated talent intelligence reports can produce dangerously convincing visualisations whilst harbouring significant data hallucinations. The discussion highlights how tech talent consistently skews results regardless of the actual prompt, and the critical importance of human expertise in validating AI outputs—with Patricia's inclusion of visa lead times demonstrating the nuanced thinking that distinguishes expert analysis from algorithmic suggestions.

The news segment examines Saudi Arabia's remarkable skills week initiative, where they've mapped 8,500 skills across just 12 priority sectors as part of Vision 2030—a masterclass in national-level strategic workforce planning that prioritises focused action over comprehensive cataloguing. The conversation explores Mercer's Talent Trends report revealing that only 47% of employees believe their managers understand their skills gaps, whilst job-hoppers receive 16.4% salary increases compared to 5.6% for loyal employees—sparking debate about whether internal talent marketplaces or salary structures are the real retention culprit.

Jen shares her unconventional journey from a working holiday visa in New Zealand to becoming one of the UK's leading SWP practitioners, including her experiences with airline scheduling complexities that cross the international date line and staffing hard-to-fill hospitals in rural Invercargill. Her definition of strategic workforce planning challenges conventional thinking: it's not about timeline horizons but about connecting every people intervention across the business to deliver organisational purpose sustainably and effectively.

The conversation explores why organisations struggle with true strategic planning, with Jen arguing that both public and private sectors fail by seeking false certainty in an uncertain future. She advocates for scenario planning that embraces radical uncertainty—planning for multiple tomorrows rather than trying to predict a single future, using external market intelligence combined with internal knowledge to build organisational agility through constant iteration rather than perfect predictions.

The episode concludes with Jen's three essential tips for SWP success: secure a "badass sponsor" (preferably the CEO) who can drive organisational change, use data to identify and challenge real pain points rather than assumed problems, and critically, start small despite pressure for comprehensive solutions. Her insight that managers often don't understand their teams' skills connects directly back to the Mercer findings, demonstrating how data maturity and decision-making courage are more important than perfect information.

Until next time, stay agile, stay evidence-based, and most importantly, stay intelligent!

As ever - big thanks to our sponsors: ⁠⁠⁠https://lightcast.io⁠⁠⁠

Welcome to Episode 39 of the Talent Intelligence Collective podcast! Alan Walker, Alison Ettridge, and Toby Culshaw are joined by Kumar Vaibhav, a seasoned TI professional who has built and led talent intelligence functions at Amazon, Walmart, Philips, and now Atlassian, bringing over 11 years of experience in transforming raw data into strategic workforce insights.

The episode begins with exciting news as Toby announces Lightcast's acquisition of Rhetoric, bringing 800 million profiles and 280 million company records to expand their people and company data capabilities. This strategic move represents a significant shift from aggregated TI data to actionable intelligence, bridging the gap between macro workforce planning and micro-level talent acquisition needs.

Drawing from his recent experience at RecFest, Toby explores how talent intelligence has become so embedded across HR functions that it no longer needs its own dedicated stage—TI is now the underlying foundation for everything from employer branding to skills intelligence. The conversation touches on the evolving landscape of AI implementation in recruiting, revealing that while efficiency gains are evident, true systematic automation remains limited.

Kumar shares his remarkable journey from founding a dramatics club at university to becoming a TI leader across some of the world's largest technology companies. His insights into building stakeholder rapport are particularly compelling—from his first project at Philips where he successfully convinced leadership to change their APAC headquarters location, to developing innovative approaches like using Power BI to analyse borough-level talent distribution in New York during the post-COVID workplace transformation.

The discussion delves into Kumar's unique perspective on building world-class TI functions from scratch, emphasising three critical elements: aligning with business strategy, demonstrating operational ROI alongside strategic value, and building credibility through transparency and stakeholder trust. His examples span from competitive intelligence in finance sourcing to innovative location strategies that consider both external market data and internal talent mobility patterns.

Kumar offers fascinating insights into the growing prominence of TI teams in India, explaining how the evolution from cost arbitrage to genuine skills development has created a thriving ecosystem of talent intelligence professionals. His candid revelations about working with Toby—including the memorable moment when Toby questioned whether TI truly adds value—provide both humour and profound insights into the self-reflection required in this evolving field.

The episode concludes with Kumar's excitement about joining Atlassian, where he's leveraging Confluence to build dynamic project repositories that double as internal databases, potentially revolutionising how TI knowledge is captured and accessed through AI-powered systems.

Until next time, stay curious, stay brilliant, and most importantly, stay intelligent!

As ever - big thanks to our sponsors: ⁠⁠https://lightcast.io⁠⁠

Welcome to Episode 38 of the Talent Intelligence Collective podcast! In this special return episode, Alan Walker, Alison Ettridge, and Toby Culshaw welcome back Gerrit Schimmelpenninck for his second appearance on the show, exploring his remarkable transformation from corporate TI leader to entrepreneurial consultant.

The episode opens with Toby discussing the Talent Intelligence Collective's exciting "One Prompt Challenge" in partnership with InDrive, where participants must create a complete location analysis using just a single AI prompt—no follow-ups allowed. The conversation delves into the fascinating challenges of AI prompting, including the revelation that AI systems are designed to please users rather than provide balanced perspectives unless specifically prompted for opposing views.

The news segment explores the escalating battle for AI talent, with Meta allegedly offering $100 million signing bonuses to poach OpenAI engineers, and OpenAI's intriguing decision to appoint a distinguished AI researcher as their new head of recruiting. The discussion also touches on global talent mobility shifts, as the US restricts funding and visas while other nations launch aggressive programs to attract displaced scientists and researchers.

Gerrit shares his extraordinary journey since we last spoke in Episode 11—relocating from Amsterdam to Los Angeles, building talent intelligence capabilities at Activision Blizzard (Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Candy Crush), and ultimately launching his own consultancy, Talent Motions, after Microsoft's acquisition. His insights into the gaming industry's unique talent challenges and the importance of hiring developers who are passionate gamers themselves provide fascinating industry-specific perspectives.

The conversation explores Gerrit's pivot to competitive intelligence consulting, moving beyond traditional recruitment-focused TI to solving strategic business problems. He shares compelling case studies, including mapping competitor organisations for major tech suppliers and analysing secretive quantitative trading teams in finance—demonstrating how talent intelligence can drive critical business decisions far beyond hiring.

Until next time, stay curious, stay strategic, and most importantly, stay intelligent!

As ever - big thanks to our sponsors: ⁠https://lightcast.io⁠

Welcome to Episode 37 of the Talent Intelligence Collective podcast! In this data-driven episode, Alan Walker and Toby Culshaw from Lightcast (with Alison taking a well-earned break) delve into the world of talent analytics with Steve Kerwin, who leads the data and analytics organisation for Amazon's Stores Talent Acquisition team.

The news roundup kicks off with a critical examination of Trump's manufacturing revival plans against the sobering reality of skills shortages across the US, with Deloitte projecting 1.9 million unfilled manufacturing jobs by 2033. The conversation shifts to Shopify's CEO's controversial policy of refusing to approve new headcount unless teams can demonstrate why AI can't perform the work, sparking a thoughtful discussion about the practical limitations of AI implementation. The segment concludes with a cautionary tale of an AI shopping app founder charged with defrauding investors after allegedly using human contractors in the Philippines instead of the advertised AI technology.

Steve shares his eight-year journey building Amazon's talent acquisition analytics capabilities from the ground up, offering candid insights into scaling data solutions to thousands of users across one of the world's largest employers. He emphasises the critical importance of candidate experience data and how qualitative feedback, when properly captured and analysed, can transform hiring success at scale.

The discussion explores the unique challenges of leading a diverse team of BI engineers, software developers, and data engineers, with Steve advocating for a servant leadership approach that empowers team members to grow their skills and tackle increasingly complex problems. He provides a refreshingly honest assessment of the persistent disconnect between talent acquisition, HR, and finance when it comes to operational forecasting and demand planning, highlighting the need for better integration across these traditionally siloed functions.

For organisations just beginning to build their analytics capabilities, Steve offers practical advice, emphasising the importance of establishing solid foundational data structures before attempting more sophisticated analyses. He compares building analytics capabilities to constructing a house: "I can't build you bay windows and roofs if I don't have the basement laid."

Until next time, stay curious, stay analytical, and most importantly, stay intelligent!

As ever - big thanks to our sponsors: https://lightcast.io

Welcome to Episode 36 of the Talent Intelligence Collective podcast! In this special "insider" episode, Alan Walker and Alison Ettridge turn the spotlight on their co-host Toby Culshaw, who has recently made the leap from Amazon to Lightcast and shares the story behind this exciting career move.

The episode begins with a thought-provoking discussion about data discrepancies across LinkedIn platforms, exploring the challenges of balancing directional accuracy with precise data in talent intelligence. The conversation delves into how perception, gut feeling, and objective data all play crucial roles in strategic decision-making, with Toby sharing revealing examples from his career where leadership perceptions didn't match market realities.

McKinsey's recent paper on strategic workforce planning in the age of AI sparks an examination of how organisations achieving excellence in talent management generate substantially more revenue per employee. The team discusses the critical relationship between operational planning and long-term strategy, particularly as AI continues to reshape workforce dynamics at an unprecedented pace.

The heart of the episode features Toby recounting his fascinating career journey from financial recruitment to pioneering talent intelligence. He shares candid insights about his early days using "the big red book" of chartered accountants, his time in Australia staffing entire call centres, and his pivotal moments at Thales where he first discovered how data could influence strategic business decisions rather than just support tactical recruitment.

Toby offers a compelling vision for the future of talent acquisition, predicting a significant shift toward hiring manager self-service for routine roles while reserving specialised recruitment expertise for business-critical positions. He explains his decision to move to Lightcast as driven by the opportunity to influence the talent intelligence field more broadly and help more organisations build effective TI functions.

The episode concludes with reassurance for listeners that while Toby's career is changing, the podcast remains committed to its independent voice and community-focused mission—with exciting possibilities ahead for expanding its reach and impact.

Until next time, stay intelligent!

This podcast is proudly sponsored by Lightcast

Welcome to Episode 35 of the Talent Intelligence Collective podcast! Alan Walker, Alison Ettridge, and Toby Culshaw sit down with Chris Woodward, whose fascinating journey from military leadership to strategic workforce planning offers a masterclass in talent strategy and organisational effectiveness.

This month's intelligence roundup features Toby exploring whether AI agents can truly become trusted advisors in talent intelligence, sparking a thought-provoking discussion about the balance between automation and human judgement. The conversation shifts to the UK's ambitious AI skills strategy, contrasting it with the Gulf region's more pragmatic approach to talent development, highlighting the critical importance of long-term thinking versus short-term political cycles.

Chris shares his remarkable career trajectory from the British Army, where he served four tours in Afghanistan, to his role as Global Head of Strategic Workforce Planning at Babcock. He offers valuable insights into how military concepts like "battle grouping" – bringing together diverse capabilities towards clear outcomes – can transform talent strategy in the corporate world. His experience reimagining talent pathways in the military and later applying competency science at Korn Ferry reveals the power of objective, future-focused talent management.

The discussion delves into the challenges of demand-side workforce planning, with Chris highlighting how organisations often struggle with long-term capability building when faced with immediate business pressures. His work on criticality assessments for submarine servicing exposed stark talent shortages, necessitating innovative approaches to capability development with multi-year horizons.

As Chris embarks on his next chapter establishing an advisory practice focused on organisational effectiveness, he shares three essential tips for strategic workforce planning professionals: get strategic clarity, build relationships across the business, and truly understand how the business creates value. His perspective on HR functions becoming truly strategic partners rather than cost centres offers a compelling vision for the future of talent management.

Until next time, stay curious, stay strategic, and most importantly, stay intelligent!

Welcome to Episode 34 of the Talent Intelligence Collective podcast! Join hosts Alan Walker, Alison Ettridge, and Toby Culshaw as they welcome Cole Napper, VP of Research and Innovation at Lightcast and host of the Directionally Correct podcast, who shares his fascinating insights on integrating people analytics, talent intelligence, and workforce planning.

The market intelligence roundup kicks off with Toby exploring an intriguing Forbes article about talent supply chains, sparking a discussion about treating workforce management with the same strategic rigour as other business assets. The conversation then shifts to the global shortage of AI talent, with insights into how different nations are approaching this challenge, including China's talent shortages and the Middle East's strategic investments in skills development.

Cole shares his unique perspective from working across multiple industries and roles, emphasising his "maniacal focus on adding business value." Drawing from his experience leading a 50-person team at FedEx that spanned people analytics, workforce planning, and talent intelligence, he discusses how combining these disciplines can deliver hundreds of millions in tangible ROI.

The discussion delves into the evolution of human capital management, with Cole offering a fresh perspective on why finance hasn't taken over HR – because humans aren't interchangeable units. He explores how behavioural science plays a crucial role in understanding workforce motivation and potential, particularly in an era where employee loyalty and engagement are increasingly challenging.

The episode concludes with Cole's three interconnected tips for organisations looking to integrate their people analytics, talent intelligence, and workforce planning functions: seek each other out, share knowledge, and pool data resources. He emphasises that these functions are significantly more powerful when working together, capable of bringing previously unseen value to organisations.

Until next time, stay curious, stay analytical, and most importantly, stay intelligent!

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