TIVP030: PayPal (PYPL): Value Trap or Multibagger? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley

Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley dive into PayPal’s post-pandemic reset, tracing the fintech pioneer’s slide from market darling to value-story candidate. Once lifted by lockdown spending and eBay tailwinds, PayPal has seen its growth stall, its take-rate decline, and investors seem to have given up on it. In this episode, Shawn and Daniel unpack whether new CEO Alex Chriss’s “profitable growth” playbook, Fastlane one-click checkout, a margin-focused Braintree overhaul, and fresh bets on Ads and the PYUSD stablecoin, can restore momentum. They also debate how realistic PayPal’s ambitious goals for the future are, what a sustained 6% share shrink via buybacks does for long-term EPS, how the new management team is incentivized, and whether PayPal’s consumer moat still matters in an Apple-Pay world. IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN 00:00 - Intro 04:38 - How PayPal became the No.1 payment provider and what the PayPal Mafia is. 09:47 - Why investors fell out of love with PayPal’s stock. 14:03 - What the next chapter under the new CEO will look like. 26:42 - Which new businesses could make PayPal dramatically more profitable? 33:31 - How the new strategy shows up in the numbers. 50:06 - Why the management incentive structure is a big benefit for shareholders. 51:36 - Whether stablecoins are bearish or bullish for PayPal. 01:01:11 - Whether PayPal is attractively valued at its current levels. 01:10:05 - Whether Shawn & Daniel add PYPL to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio. And much, much more! *Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Sign Up for ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Community.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Emerging Value Substack ⁠Article⁠. Crossroad’s ⁠Interview⁠ with Alex Chriss. PayPal 2025 ⁠Investor Day⁠. The Reservist ⁠Article⁠ on the Payment Industry. Jimmy Soni’s Book on The ⁠PayPal Mafia⁠. Explore our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Uber,⁠⁠⁠⁠Nike,⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Reddit,⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Nintendo⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Airbnb⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠AutoZone⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Alphabet⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ulta⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠John Deere⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Madison Square Garden Sports⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Check out the books mentioned in the podcast ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Premium Feed⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. NEW TO THE SHOW? Follow our official social media accounts: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X (Twitter)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TikTok⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Try Shawn's favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Finance⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy exclusive perks from our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠favorite Apps and Services⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠best business podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our ⁠⁠sponsors⁠⁠: ⁠⁠Harvest Right⁠⁠ Connect with Shawn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Email⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Connect with Daniel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Email⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ HELP US ...