Some New Farm Aid Details Emerge, DOJ Input Cost Investigation Still MIA

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🚜 Farm Aid & Government Funding

Senate Republicans are pushing for an additional farm aid package, potentially totaling up to $15 billion (not yet confirmed).

The proposal includes:
Additional bridge payments
Support for specialty crop producers
Higher farm ownership and operating loan limits
Aid for farmers who suffered losses above the national average or were forced to sell at depressed prices
Lawmakers plan to attach the measure to upcoming government funding legislation
Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) payments remain scheduled for February 28

A possible government shutdown on January 30 could:
Delay FBA payments
Delay any new farm aid package
The House and Senate have passed several spending bills, but key issues remain unresolved

🌍 Global Trade & Geopolitics
President Trump announced new tariffs on NATO allies over Greenland
10% tariffs begin February 1
Increase to 25% on June 1
Tariffs remain until the US is able to purchase Greenland
The EU is weighing retaliatory trade measures
Trump also said he would consider using force if negotiations fail

Market reaction:
S&P 500 futures down 1.8%
European and UK equities sharply lower
US dollar weaker against major currencies

🇨🇦🇨🇳 Canada–China Trade Deal
China will reduce tariffs on Canadian canola oil from 85% to 15% by March 1
Tariffs also reduced on:
Lobsters
Crabs
Peas

Canada will impose a 6.1% tariff on Chinese EVs
China has reportedly purchased its first Canadian canola cargo since October
Canada continues diversifying trade away from the US

🌱 South American Crop Update
Brazil’s soybean harvest is ahead of schedule
2% harvested as of last Thursday
vs. 1.7% at the same time last year
Rainfall has been near normal overall, with slightly drier conditions in southern areas
World Weather notes a La Niña-style dry bias, but says it’s unlikely to threaten production

📊 Fund Positioning (CFTC)
Large speculators were heavy sellers last week:
Corn: Net sellers of 78k contracts
Net short now 91k (largest since late October)
Soybeans: Net sellers of 46k contracts
Net short 20k (largest since mid-October)
Wheat: Net buyers of 1k SRW contracts

🚢 Export Activity
USDA reported multiple corn flash sales:
298k mt to unknown destinations
120k mt to Japan
Both sales are for the 2025/26 marketing year
Accumulated corn sales are now 29% higher than last year

🐄 Cattle Market Shock
Live and feeder cattle futures plunged Friday on screwworm concerns
Texas officials report 14 active cases within 200 miles of the US border
The pest is expected to eventually reach the US

Market reaction:
Live cattle down as much as $4.45
Feeder cattle down as much as $8.10