Software update: AI Saas scare haunts capital markets

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◆ How AI threat to software biz threatens stockmarket listings...

◆ ... and collaterlised loan obligation market

◆ AT1 market hits new record tight but buyers turn away

Investors are wary that recent AI upgrades — notably Anthropic's latest Claude Cowork agent — are a threat to the software as a service (Saas) sector. This is causing headaches for Saas businesses looking to do an IPO this year as well as the private equity companies that often sponsor them. We examine the threat and what it means for equity capital markets.

Loans made to software companies are also a big part of the collateral for CLOs and here too underlying asset prices are suffering as the same AI peril prompts a cheapening in their value. But that's not the CLO market's only problem. The value of loans made to chemical companies is also on the slide. We discuss the impact on CLOs as an asset class.

Finally, after an incredible run in the additional tier one (AT1) market, a bank has issued one with a reset spread tighter than the psychological barrier of mid-swaps plus 300bp. But there are signs that the market is becoming too rich for some investors. We take a look at this week's landmark deal and look at where next for AT1 issuance, the most subordinated layer of banks' capital structures.