So Close to 6%: Momentum Building, But Caution Still Required - 2/17/2026 Weekly Mortgage Update Commentary

Mortgage rates are edging tantalizingly close to the 6% threshold, fueled by a benign CPI report, bond-friendly employment revisions, and shifting job market dynamics. But while the headlines suggest momentum building for lower rates—and perhaps a pickup in refinance activity—this moment calls for strategic discipline, not complacency. In this segment, we unpack what the latest economic data is really signaling, why mortgage rates are diverging from the 10-year Treasury, how AI may be reshaping hiring patterns, and why lenders must resist the temptation to chase easy refi volume at the expense of purchase relationships. The opportunity is real—but so are the risks if leaders misread the cycle.