Simply Trade x The Trade Guys: One Messy Trade Year

Special Collaboration: Simply Trade × The Trade Guys

Episode: #423 Recorded: January 12, 2026 Length: ~40 minutes

👥 Hosts

• Lalo Solorzano, Co-Host, Simply Trade

• Andy Shiles, Co-Host, Simply Trade

🎧 Guest Hosts (The Trade Guys)

• Bill Reinsch – Senior Adviser, CSIS | LinkedIn

• Scott Miller – Senior Adviser, CSIS | LinkedIn

• The Trade Guys Podcast – A CSIS Production | Podcast Page

📌 Episode Summary

Simply Trade kicks off 2026 with a special crossover episode featuring The Trade Guys, blending high-level trade policy analysis with real-world compliance and operational impact. Together, the group explores what’s already scheduled to happen in 2026 — without crystal-ball forecasting — focusing on four major global trade battlefronts that businesses must prepare for now.

From Supreme Court authority over tariffs to USMCA’s uncertain future, WTO dynamics, China’s global export strategy, and the erosion of de minimis, this episode connects policy decisions in Washington to the day-to-day realities faced by trade professionals.

🔍 Key Discussion Themes ⚖️ Separation of Powers: POTUS vs. SCOTUS vs. Congress

• The looming IEEPA Supreme Court decision and what it could mean for tariff authority

• Why a “split decision” could prolong uncertainty — especially around refunds

• Whether Congress is prepared (or willing) to reassert its constitutional role in trade

🌎 The WTO & Global Trade Rules

• Why the U.S. still needs the WTO — even if it dislikes multilateralism

• The critical importance of the e-commerce tariff moratorium

• How upcoming WTO Ministerial discussions may quietly shape U.S. trade strategy

🇨🇳 China vs. the Rest of the World

• “Managed separation” between the U.S. and China

• Why Chinese exports aren’t disappearing — they’re redirecting

• How Mexico, the EU, and others are responding to China’s manufacturing surge

🇺🇸🇨🇦🇲🇽 USMCA: Family Feud, Trade Edition

• Why a full withdrawal is unlikely — but renegotiation is inevitable

• Scenarios ranging from bilateral deals to a 10-year extension cycle

• The growing compliance burden for companies relying on USMCA benefits

📦 De Minimis & Trade Enforcement

• How de minimis once saved the customs system — and why its rollback matters

• Enforcement whiplash: seizures, investigations, and system congestion

• Why “fixing abuse” shouldn’t mean breaking the entire system

🏛️ What Can Companies Actually Do?

• Practical advice on engaging Congress before policies are announced

• Why explaining trade in plain language to elected officials matters

• The role of industry groups like NCBFAA and initiatives such as ADAPT

🎯 Key Takeaways

• Trade policy uncertainty isn’t going away — it’s becoming the norm

• Compliance professionals will increasingly absorb the shockwaves of policy decisions

• Engagement, education, and advocacy are no longer optional for global businesses

🔗 Resources & Links

• The Trade Guys Podcast (CSIS): https://www.csis.org/podcasts/trade-guys

🎬 Credits

• Hosts: Lalo Solorzano & Andy Shiles

• Guest Hosts: Bill Reinsch & Scott Miller (The Trade Guys)

• Produced by: Global Training Center

• Podcast: Simply Trade

🔔 Subscribe & Follow

• Simply Trade Podcast Website: https://www.globaltrainingcenter.com

• YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@simplytradepod

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• Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/simply-trade/id1640329690