Royce Duplessis' Late Entry Into NOLA Mayor's Race

The Founders Show comes to you from Colonial Williamsburg this week as Hy and Christopher discuss the importance of the 4th of July as the show begins They go on to examine the “Big Beautiful Bill”, its impacts, benefits like a $1000 deduction for nonprofits (even if you claim the standard deduction), and the likelihood that a Louisiana legislative special session will be called to make up for the loss of Medicaid dollars. Could you see another penny in sales tax here in the Pelican State to make up for the healthcare cuts?Hy’s and Christopher’s main subject of the show, though, is the New Orleans Mayor’s race and the entrance of Royce Duplessis. That leads us to ask the question… Will Royce Duplessis ‘Mandy-Landry’ Moreno?He has to make it to the runoff first, but if the standing room only crowd at Central City’s Ashe Powerhouse Theatre provides any indication, Royce Duplessis might have a chance to both break into the 2025 mayoral runoff and outflank the likely liberal Caucasian candidate – as he did get elected to the state Senate.In order to win, Duplessis must replicate the coalition that allowed him to best Democratic Rep. Mandy Landry in 2022. He must build a biracial coalition of African-American Democrats as well as white Republicans and Independents to outflank a prominent Caucasian challenger. His Senate district, which has more than 75,000 registered voters in Orleans Parish, is a good microcosm of the city – 48 percent are Black, 40 percent are Caucasian, and nine percent other. In fact, it’s a bit worse than the City of New Orleans for an African-American contender, which is 55 and 34 percent Black and white respectively. That Duplessis could carry a gentrified district, which under traditional political rules should have given a preference to a liberal white contender, speaks well of his chances in a citywide runoff.Of course, the state senator first has to best Councilman Oliver Thomas and Judge Arthur Hunter in order to end up in a likely runoff with frontrunner Councilmember At-Large Helena Moreno. His announcement speech hinted exactly at Duplessis’ strategy to achieve that goal when he said, “The journey to tonight, to this very moment, started about 37 years ago on Press Drive in Pontchartrain Park.” The senator went on to recount a lesson which he learned as a 6-year-old football player, yet the subtle message that he grew up in the first desegregated neighborhood that was the home of so many subsequent civil rights leaders was not lost on the crowd. They cheered. The Creole candidate had arrived.Duplessis appealed to the city’s wider working class base as well, noting that his opponents should have been more concerned about the 20,000 people who left Orleans rather than “where the mayor sleeps.” Then he doubled down on an obvious attack on Oliver Thomas (as well as Helena Moreno) with the words, “The next mayor of New Orleans cannot be someone who knows the system, but be willing to change the system.”Reacting to the cost of living crisis, Duplessis pledged to build 40,000 affordable apartments and new homes just before he pledged an economic development mission to make the Port of New Orleans the largest in the world. It is a package uniquely suited to uniting the right and the left on the ideological spectrum."This city is being asked to settle,” he said of his opponents. “New Orleans will never become its greatest if we accept complacency,” he said, explaining that his impetus to jump into the contest came from the electorate’s general lack of excitement about the contenders. Duplessis freely admitted that he did not have the money his opponents have, the original reason he demurred from running six months ago. Nevertheless, he’s counting on the public’s desire for change to propel him into the runoff and into the mayor’s office.Moreno is also expected to work across racial lines to secure 15 to 20 percent of the Black vote to emerge victorious, a task well underway with some highly visible endorsements from African-American leaders. Duplessis enjoys high name recognition in his 5th La. Senatorial District but lacks that same level of positive ID across the city as she or her fellow councilman. A survey conducted September 4-5, 2024, by JMC Analytics pegged Duplessis' backing at nine percent, behind both Moreno and Thomas.Councilman Thomas would stand as the prohibitive favorite under normal circumstances, thanks to his tenure in office and general public likability, yet his past felony conviction has given many potential citywide voters pause.Even if Duplessis transcends Thomas’ position in the polls, the senator must contend with Judge Arthur Hunter, who had his official kick-off on the day before Duplessis – Monday, June 30. Moreover, Hunter has already sought to build upon his high profile in the African-American community by actively courting Caucasian leaders. Caroline Fayard, Dickie Brennan and consultant ...