Retail’s Big Test: How Tariffs and Early Shopping Shape Back-to-School 2025

Takeaways

• BTS is the second largest retail season after winter holidays.
• Total BTS spending is set to total around $38 billion this year.
• Families are focusing more on essential items and discounts for BTS shopping.
• Retailers are adjusting strategies to capture budget-conscious shoppers.
• Economic indicators show mixed signals but overall consumer spending remains resilient.
• New tariffs are significantly impacting retail pricing and supply chains.
• Retailers are diversifying sourcing to mitigate tariff impacts.
• Category-specific strategies are crucial for navigating the BTS season.
• Communication of value and pricing transparency is key for retailers this season.
• Retailers should remain agile and data-driven to adapt to changing consumer behavior.

Chapters

00:00 This Week in Research: New Reports and Data

02:03 The Importance of BTS for Retailers

03:35 Consumer Spending Trends and Categories

07:12 Economic Indicators and Consumer Behavior

11:51 Impact of New Tariff Regime on Retail

20:53 Retail Strategies Amid Tariff Challenges

24:08 Category-Specific Retail Strategies

34:11 Final Thoughts and Future Outlook

Check out the Coresight Research US Back to School series of reports to dive into US consumers' shopping expectations for the BTS season in more detail.