Real Estate vs. the S&P 500:Seasonality, Turnover & Long-Term Returns

In today’s episode, Richard covers three big themes shaping today’s housing decisions. First, he breaks down what he’s seeing on the ground in Q4 across the South Bay: slower transaction volume, a return to pre-COVID seasonality, and how today’s market is playing out across the South Bay. Next, Richard unpacks fresh national data from Redfin showing U.S. housing turnover at a 30-year low and explains how “golden handcuff” low-rate owners are keeping inventory tight, even with affordability still stretched. Finally, he dives into the numbers behind real estate versus the S&P 500, using real South Bay land deals and a 30-year Case-Shiller vs. S&P comparison to explore when you may be better off buying property—and when a simple index fund might quietly win.