The big things you need to know: First, we are lifting our year-end 2025 S&P 500 price target to 6,250, essentially taking our price target back to where it was in mid-March. Second, there is no change to our 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast of $258, which is slightly below consensus. We also review what we’ve learned from the early reporters, which makes us think it’s too early to stop worrying about tariff impacts. Third, we’re adding the momentum trade and earnings sentiment for mega cap growth to the list of things worrying us about the stock market near-term.

The big things you need to know:

• First, we review the bull thesis that we heard in client meetings last week, and our thoughts on where it could go wrong.
• Second, we review how the rally in equities has been looking a bit overdone on our valuation and EPS modeling, and how we’re also starting to run out of room on one of our sentiment studies.
• Third, conditions are rather mixed for US equities at the moment. We walk through things that look good, and things that look not so good. In the latter camp, one thing that stands out as particularly important to us is the failure of c-suite sentiment in widely followed surveys to inflect positively, as has been the case with consumer, small business, and investor sentiment surveys.

Four big things you need to know: First, globally our analysts are constructive on performance over the next 6-12 months. Second, driven in part by our survey results, we are making six changes to our US sector calls – we dig in a little deeper to the upgrades of Materials, Consumer Staples, and REITs here. Third, while we don’t make recommendations on non-US sectors, we do highlight how Financials is a favorite across the globe among our analysts. Fourth, improving 2026 consensus GDP forecasts are a positive outlier for the US compared to our other coverage regions, which we think has been helping boost US performance.