The big things you need to know:

1. First, the stock market is still experiencing a growth scare, in our view, where it is attempting to stabilize. We see more downside if recession is priced in.
2. Second, we review how the process of resetting EPS expectations has begun, and run though key themes from the early reporters and companies that have presented at conferences since the Rose Garden. Our overarching takeaway from our reading is that recession is not yet a foregone conclusion but also that US equities are not out of the woods.
3. Third, we run through our latest thoughts on the Growth trade, which has been outperforming again, and note that it is not a clear-cut call.

The big things you need to know:

1. First, we review our stance on Small Caps. We had a little more love for them coming into Valentine’s Day weekend due to better fundamentals, but still see challenges that raise the bar for further outperformance (less appealing positioning and valuations, plus continued linkage to evolving views on the Fed).
2. Second, other things that jump out include more evidence of a tough reporting season, the slide in sentiment on the AAII survey which is not signaling oversold conditions yet, and thoughts on why we’re not intrigued with the Tech sector yet from a generalist perspective.
3. Programming note: The podcast will be on break next week and resume later this month.

The big things you need to know:

1. First, we run through our thoughts on last week’s choppy price action in the S&P 500 and reiterate our 7,750 12-month-forward S&P 500 price target.
2. Second, we update the stats we’re tracking for 4Q25 reporting season, which generally bounced back in our latest update but remain weaker than what we’ve seen in past reporting seasons.