Preparing for Freight Volatility With Chris Caplice From MIT and DAT Freight & Analytics - Unboxing Logistics Ep. 87

In this Unboxing Logistics episode, Lori sits down with Chris Caplice, executive director at MIT Center for Transportation Logistics and chief scientist at DAT Freight and Analytics, to discuss the state of freight in 2026.

The state of freight shipping in 2026

Chris begins by laying out the two big forces shaping the freight market—supply and demand—and noting, “Because supply and demand are constantly shifting in this very volatile market, you're going to see prices going up and prices going down on a regular-ish basis.”

He explains that while demand is holding fairly steady, the same can’t be said for supply. “A lot of the regulations that have come recently … [are ] increasing the cost of being a carrier. … It's increasing the barrier of entry, so it's constricting the supply of carriers.”

The result? “We are going to see a tightening of the market throughout 2026.”

Spot vs. contract pricing

According to Chris, one of the biggest mistakes shippers make is using contract rates for every lane. Simply put, “It just doesn't make sense for certain lanes that are sporadic, low volume, things like that.”

He warns that often, financial leaders prefer the perceived security of contracts, but contracting for everything actually “creates more problems than it fixes.”

Fortunately, there’s a simple rule of thumb to know whether you’re balancing spot and contract pricing correctly. Chris says, “Thirty percent of your lanes will [probably] handle [about] 80% of your volume. But … 70% [of your lanes] will handle [about] 20%. So those ones, you don't want to put contract rates on.”

In other words, “The vast majority of your volume will go under contract. The vast majority of your lanes will probably be spot.”

Balancing cost and reliability in a tight market

Chris acknowledges that saving money is a huge consideration when it comes to shipping. But he cautions logistics leaders to consider other factors, such as carrier availability and reliability.

“There's so much excess capacity out there. It's tighter now. So little things can have big ripple effects. So I think the big concern now is not saving every dime. It's more about, okay, will my carriers be there when the market gets tighter, or if my demand shifts, or if the fuel price increases?”

Links

• Connect with Chris on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chris-caplice-1839/
• Visit the DAT Freight and Analytics website: https://www.dat.com/
• Visit the MIT Center for Transportation Logistics website: https://ctl.mit.edu/