Prediction Markets with Alex McCullough

In this episode of Forecasting Impact, hosts Mariana Menchero and Laila Akhlaghi speak with Alex McCullough about his research on prediction markets, probabilistic forecasting, and the crypto ecosystem. He is best known for his work analyzing the accuracy of Polymarket, where he has built widely referenced dashboards to evaluate market calibration and performance. Through his analysis, Alex helps bring rigor and transparency to the discussion around how prediction markets perform as forecasting tools. Alex's work includes the following dashboards:

Initial dashboard: https://dune.com/alexmccullough/how-accurate-is-polymarket

And the widely referenced Brier Score dashboard: https://dune.com/alexmccullough/polymarket-brier-score