• Predicting Aedes Albopictus Spread in Europe via Climate and Population (April 2025)

  • Apr 11 2025
  • Duración: 13 m
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Predicting Aedes Albopictus Spread in Europe via Climate and Population (April 2025)

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  • Population Dependent Diffusion Model for Aedes Albopictus Spread in EuropeSource: Barman et al., "A climate and population dependent diffusion model forecasts the spread of Aedes Albopictus mosquitoes in Europe," Nature Portfolio journal, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02199-zDate: Received - 25 November 2024 | Accepted - 07 March 2025 | Published - 09 April 2025Key Themes and Important Ideas/Facts:This paper presents a novel spatio-temporal diffusion model that accurately forecasts the spread of Aedes albopictus mosquitoes in Europe by simultaneously considering climate suitability and human population factors. Ae. albopictus is a crucial vector for several arboviruses, including Dengue, Chikungunya, Zika, and Yellow Fever. The study highlights the increasing risk of autochthonous (local) transmission of these diseases in Europe due to the mosquito's expanding range, driven by environmental changes and global interconnectedness.1. Predictable Spread of Ae. albopictus:The core finding is that the expansion of Ae. albopictus in Europe is predictable by integrating climate suitability and human population predictors within a single spatio-temporal diffusion model.The model demonstrates high accuracy in predicting areas of presence and absence (99% and 79% respectively).This predictability allows for anticipating future outbreaks by understanding the interplay between vector suitability and introduction.Quote: "These results show that the expansion of Ae. albopictus in Europe is predictable and provide a basis for anticipating future outbreaks in situations of dependent interacting co-drivers."2. Drivers of Ae. albopictus Expansion:The study confirms that climate change (suitable climatic conditions), urbanization, and human population mobility are key factors facilitating the invasion of new habitats by this species.Quote: "Suitable climatic conditions favoured by climate change, urbanisation, and human populationmobility, seems to have facilitated the expansion of this invasive mosquito species into novel habitats."The passive transport of eggs through global travel and trade (e.g., used tires, lucky bamboo) and ground vehicles contributes significantly to its spread along transportation corridors.The mosquito's ecological and physiological plasticity (e.g., adaptation to cold, desiccation-resistant eggs, domestic container-breeding) enables its rapid and widespread expansion.3. Model Development and Performance:The researchers developed a "highly predictive spatio-temporal vector diffusion model" that integrates climate suitability (temperature, humidity) and human population data.The model is a generalized additive mixed (GAM) model fitted within a Bayesian framework (INLA).It accounts for both short-range spread (geographical proximity) and potential long-range spread influenced by human population.The model demonstrates good overall performance, with AUC values around 0.80 for predicting new establishments in previously uncolonized areas.Quote: "Notably, model evaluation reveals that new introduction of Ae. albopictus into naïve areas, are very well predicted, which has not been achieved before with this type of model."Two versions of the model were calibrated: one using raw climate and population covariates, and another using a mechanistic mosquito life cycle model output as a covariate. Both showed similar predictive performance.4. Key Covariates and Their Influence:Temperature: Median temperature (up to 24°C) shows a strong positive correlation with Ae. albopictus presence, decreasing at higher temperatures. Minimum temperature is positively correlated when median temperatures are high.Relative Humidity: Low relative humidity is negatively correlated with Ae. albopictus presence.Proximity: Geographical proximity to already established areas has a substantial impact on the spread, modeled through a spatio-temporal diffusion process.Human Population: Higher population density is associated with a higher likelihood of Ae. albopictus presence, likely reflecting increased introduction opportunities via human mobility, although the measured effect size was relatively small compared to climate factors.Human mobility modeled explicitly using a radiation model did not significantly improve model fit, suggesting that local diffusion and the human population covariate together can effectively capture its impact.5. Implications for Public Health:The model can be a valuable tool for preparedness and response to Aedes-borne infections by identifying high-risk areas for new introductions.Quote: "This model can be integrated into early warning systems and help delineate areas at risk for the introduction and establishment of Ae. albo-pictus."Predictions can help target awareness and prevention messages to susceptible populations and guide vector control efforts.The model can also inform healthcare system preparedness for potential epidemics and the strategic deployment of available arboviral vaccines...
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