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Politics Politics Politics

De: Justin Robert Young
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Unbiased political analysis the way you wish still existed. Justin Robert Young isn't here to tell you what to think, he's here to tell you who is going to win and why.

www.politicspoliticspolitics.comJustin Robert Young Mundial Política y Gobierno
Episodios
  • Breaking Down Prop 50 Ads! Jumping Into the Democratic Primary Machine (with Dillon Fleharty)

    Breaking Down Prop 50 Ads! Jumping Into the Democratic Primary Machine (with Dillon Fleharty)
    Sep 3 2025
    The Prop 50 Messaging BlitzProposition 50 is one of the most nakedly strategic plays in this cycle. It exists for one purpose: to eliminate California’s independent redistricting board so Democrats can gerrymander five seats back — a direct response to Republicans doing the same in red states. That’s the whole game. Strip away the messaging, and it’s a power move. The ads hitting the airwaves now make it clear how the campaign is going to run: targeted, segmented, and intensely focused on turnout.Gavin Newsom’s out front, naturally. The first ad is just him — classic ego-forward strategy. The second ad is aimed squarely at the Bay Area and Los Angeles liberal base, the same model they used to win his recall election. It’s all about maximizing favorable turnout in deep blue pockets. They’ve run this play before, and they know it works — but back then, they had a longer runway. This time, they’re racing the clock.Then there’s the third ad. That one’s for the independents, and its existence tells you everything. The campaign knows that gutting an independent redistricting board is a tough sell outside the bubble. They say it’s temporary. I don’t buy that. Nobody gives up control once they get it — not in politics. The only way this doesn’t work is if moderates see through the language and call it what it is. That last ad shows they’re worried that might happen.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Jerry Nadler’s Long ExitJerry Nadler is stepping down after more than 30 years in Congress and 50 years in public office. He’s one of those figures who’s always just sort of been there — a Manhattan political mainstay who most recently made headlines during Trump’s first impeachment. That might end up being his most lasting national footprint. He barely held onto his seat after being redistricted into a brutal primary with Carolyn Maloney. He survived that one, but it felt like the end of something.Now he’s officially retiring. He says it’s time to pass the torch, and he’s backing his former aide, Michael Lasher, to take over. That makes sense. It’s a controlled handoff. The district will stay blue. The torch will stay in the family. Nadler might not have been the flashiest member of Congress, but he was consequential — particularly in the Judiciary Committee, where he held the gavel through some of the most heated partisan fights of the Trump era.He stepped aside from that leadership role after Jamie Raskin challenged him, and that felt like the start of the wind-down. There wasn’t really a lane left for him in this current version of the Democratic Party. He’s not the TikTok-friendly progressive, and he’s not the compromise-seeking centrist. He’s just an old-school liberal from New York. And now, like a lot of others in his generation, he’s finally closing the book.Virginia Foxx and the Epstein FilesRepresentative Virginia Foxx, chair of the House Rules Committee, announced she won’t use her panel to block Thomas Massie’s discharge petition demanding the release of the Epstein files. That’s a big move — maybe even a signal. The Republican leadership has been slow-rolling this whole thing, not wanting to get too close to whatever comes out of those documents. But Foxx just let it breathe.Massie’s move has bipartisan cover — he’s working with Democrat Ro Khanna — and it’s gaining momentum. Speaker Mike Johnson says he supports “maximum disclosure,” but that there need to be protections for victims. That’s the dodge. That’s how they’re all trying to walk this line — publicly in favor of transparency, privately praying it doesn’t land on their doorstep.The buzz on the Hill is that DOJ will release just enough of the Epstein files to make the issue go away. Maybe that works. Maybe not. But one thing’s clear: the discharge petition isn’t just symbolic anymore. It’s a real threat. And the fact that leadership isn’t moving to squash it says a lot about how much weaker those levers of control have gotten. Foxx’s choice here wasn’t just about process — it was a quiet acknowledgment that the old rules don’t apply. Not with this. Not anymore.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:03:25 - Interview with Dillon Fleharty00:45:49 - Update00:48:02 - Prop 50 ads00:53:05 - Jerry Nadler00:55:08 - Virginia Foxx00:56:47 - Interview with Dillon Fleharty, con’t01:35:24 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
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    1 h y 39 m
  • How The Democrats Will Shutdown the Government. Taking My Diabolical Political Quiz (with Howard Mortman)

    How The Democrats Will Shutdown the Government. Taking My Diabolical Political Quiz (with Howard Mortman)
    Aug 29 2025

    The Democratic National Committee just wrapped up its meeting in Minneapolis, and one of the big ideas floated behind closed doors was a midterm convention. The logic is clear. Democrats are dealing with a brand problem. They want to reset, energize, and show that the party still has fresh faces and energy. That means television time. That means spectacle. So: midterm convention. And I’m all for it. I would love to cover one. I love conventions. Give me a big show with music, lights, messaging — I’m there.

    I don’t know if Trump caught wind of this plan early or just read it when the story dropped, but it’s clear what happened next. He jumped on Truth Social and declared that the Republican Party would also hold a midterm convention. Because if the Democrats are getting a big TV moment, then he’s going to get one too — and he’s going to make it better. That’s how Trump operates. If you’re doing a spectacle, he’s doing a bigger one. The man knows television, and conventions are made-for-TV moments. So now we might have two of them.

    What would those look like? For the Democrats, expect the same tightly-scripted, ultra-managed production they’ve always delivered. Nobody does a convention script like the Democratic Party. For all their other dysfunctions, they know how to build a prime-time political package. The Republicans? Expect a Trump rally — but bigger, glossier, and even more overloaded with segments, guests, and applause lines. Multiple nights, probably. A celebration of Trumpism that looks less like a traditional political event and more like an awards show.

    The Path to a Shutdown is Clear

    Meanwhile, Axios also reported that Democratic leaders in Congress have landed on their key demand to avoid a government shutdown: the reversal of Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill. And this is where things get interesting. Because while I’m not here to defend either side — I come from media, not partisanship — I can tell you that this is exactly the kind of story that drives conservatives crazy. This is what fuels the belief that the media covers these fights with blinders on. Because here’s the reality: Democrats want to shut down the government. They are choosing this. They want a shutdown — not because they think it will solve something, but because they think it’s a strong midterm frame.

    That frame is Medicaid cuts. Specifically, Medicaid cuts for rural hospitals. That’s the message. Not the whole bill, not the fiscal fight — just the healthcare piece. That’s the issue they believe will mobilize their base and let them go on offense. So everything that happens next, from press statements to floor speeches, is about setting up that narrative. The Republicans will try to pass a continuing resolution. Democrats will have to decide: do they agree, or do they shut it down?

    I don’t think Schumer or Jeffries can survive politically if they don’t let their caucus go through with this. That’s the point we’ve reached. The shutdown is happening, and this is why. The date to watch is September 30 — that’s when the funding runs out. And unless a miracle happens, we’re going to see this showdown play out just like they’ve mapped it. And the messaging is already here. Elizabeth Warren said, “If Republicans want Democrats to provide votes to fund the Trump administration, they can start by restoring the health care they ripped away to finance more tax handouts for billionaires.” That’s the line. That’s the campaign.

    It’s already baked in. Democrats sent a letter to Speaker Johnson and Senator Thune saying this has to be bipartisan — while knowing full well that their demands are nonstarters. It’s the same dynamic we’ve seen from Republicans in the past: throw out a demand that won’t be met, use the denial to justify the shutdown. The only difference is that Democrats usually don’t do this. But this isn’t the same Democratic Party as it used to be, now is it?

    Chapters

    00:00:00 - Intro

    00:06:42 - Midterm Conventions

    00:09:35 - Dems Shutdown Plan

    00:15:34 - Update and Minneapolis Shooting

    00:18:28 - Epstein

    00:22:56 - CDC

    00:24:33 - Mark Teixeira

    00:27:01 - Interview with Howard Mortman

    01:04:10- Wrap-up



    This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
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    1 h y 8 m
  • What's Going On With The Midterms? Talking Democrat Party Frustrations (with Amanda Nelson)

    What's Going On With The Midterms? Talking Democrat Party Frustrations (with Amanda Nelson)
    Aug 27 2025
    But I don’t want to focus on the Democrats right now. I want to focus on the Republican Party because one of the big things that’s going to shape the midterms — which, make no mistake, are going to be nationalized — is how the American public feels about the GOP. That includes the party’s overall image, the fact that they currently hold the House, Senate, and the White House, and the role of Donald Trump as president. Historically, that’s usually the kiss of death in a midterm. The public looks at single-party control and, whether consciously or not, pulls back a bit. It’s a check on power, and more often than not, it happens.I still believe, sitting here in late August of 2025, that Democrats are in a good position to take the House back in 2026. The redistricting mess adds some chaos, but even assuming that plays out neutrally or slightly in their favor, the historical precedent is clear — they should be competitive. That said, if we were heading toward something other than a typical midterm correction, you’d start to see signs. Not signs that Democrats are collapsing — that’s already evident in other areas — but signs that voters are unusually comfortable with Republican governance.And you know what? Those signs are there.If I had to judge the early terrain by three hard metrics, I’d go with national fundraising, party registration, and the president’s approval rating. Let’s start with the money. The Republican National Committee currently has $65 million in cash on hand. That’s not an overwhelming total, but it’s strong — especially with a year to go. More importantly, it’s four times what the Democratic National Committee has. The DNC is sitting on just $15 million. That gap alone is bad enough, but it gets worse when you factor in spending decisions like Proposition 50 in California. That fight — to temporarily override the independent redistricting commission — is going to vacuum up cash from the same organizations and donors who would otherwise be investing in House flips. So the Democrats are undercapitalized, and they’re committing resources to side projects.Then there’s registration data. According to a recent New York Times report, Democrats have lost 2.4 million registered voters in swing states that track party affiliation. In the same set of states, Republicans have gained nearly that same amount. That’s a five million voter swing. It’s not just that Democrats are losing — Republicans are growing. That kind of shift doesn’t usually happen in the middle of a polarizing presidency. People don’t suddenly start checking the box for the incumbent party unless something is resonating. And considering the kind of term Donald Trump is having — rapid policy implementation, constant headline churn, immigration crackdowns, inflation waves, even distractions like the Epstein debacle — you’d expect backlash. Instead, you get a net positive in party affiliation.That brings us to approval ratings. Trump’s RealClearPolitics average stands at 46.3 percent. He’s still underwater, with 50.8 percent disapproving. But let’s add context. That number is higher than Joe Biden, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, or even Ronald Reagan had at this same point in their second terms. That’s unusual. And while being underwater is never ideal, that 4.5-point spread is about what you’d expect for Trump when you factor in how he’s consistently undercounted in national polling. And the range of poll results is all over the map — Rasmussen has him up one, Harvard Harris has him down two, YouGov has him down 12, and Gallup just released a poll with him down 16. But even Gallup’s number is an improvement from previous weeks, which suggests that Trump’s “tough on crime” stance — especially in DC — is landing.So when I step back and look at the full picture, what I see is a Republican Party that isn’t being punished. That might sound basic, but it’s a big deal. Historically, you’d expect that by now — with the administration moving aggressively, Democrats hammering every misstep, and inflation rising — the electorate would be turning. But instead, Republicans have a funding advantage, a registration advantage, and a president who’s polling better than most of his second-term predecessors.That doesn’t mean they’re going to hold the House. The historical pattern still favors Democrats picking up seats. But it does mean that the GOP is better positioned than it has any right to be under these circumstances. And if your theory of the midterms is based on Trump’s agenda — the one big, beautiful bill, cutting Medicaid, handing out tax breaks, and all the rest — then you have to reckon with the fact that, at least for now, it isn’t hurting them. Maybe that changes. But if this were going to backfire, I would have liked to have seen a little something from it by now.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:04:20 - Early Midterms Thoughts00:16:21...
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    1 h y 32 m
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